Las Vegas Aces vs Dallas Wings Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: The House Always Wins

The Wings are facing elimination, but get to rally in front of a home crowd and, as our WNBA picks see it, play a much better game against the Aces.

Last Updated: Sep 29, 2023 11:33 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Arike Ogunbowale WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Wings are on the ropes. A’ja Wilson had another masterful 30-point game as the Las Vegas Aces answered every Wings run on Tuesday, and now they’ll attempt to close things out on the road on Friday, September 29. WNBA odds favor the series ending tonight and Dallas will need more from Satou Sabally and a better defensive effort if they want to see a Game 4.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Game 3 of Aces vs. Wings believe there are signs that tonight’s matchup is going to be closer to a tossup than previous results would indicate.

Aces vs Wings Game 3 best odds

Aces vs Wings Game 3 picks and predictions

The Las Vegas Aces have played a flat-out fantastic opening two games against the Dallas Wings, and they’re rightly favorites to end the whole thing on Friday. But the situation for Dallas is far from hopeless, and in fact, I believe the greater value for today’s action lies with the Wings.

The Aces have hit their top gear consistently throughout the playoffs, but we’ve yet to see Dallas’ fastball in this series. I believe that going home and facing elimination is likely to bring out the best version of this Wings team. It’s worth remembering that the best version of the Wings was the only WNBA team to beat all three of the Aces, New York Liberty, and Connecticut Sun this season.

It can’t be underestimated how much easier it is to find the flow state on offense when bolstered by the roar of a home crowd, a proper sleep in your own bed, and perhaps even a friendlier whistle.

But there are statistical signs that suggest today’s game will be close as well. For one thing, Dallas’ size made an appearance in Game 2. Unlike in Game 1 when A’ja Wilson and the Aces largely neutralized the Wings’ advantage on the glass, Dallas blasted Las Vegas on the offensive boards in Game 2. 

The Wings got 21 offensive rebounds on Tuesday and overall took 23 more shots than Las Vegas. The Wings are normally an efficient enough offense that those numbers would be impossible for any team to overcome, and while Las Vegas deserves credit for disrupting the Wings, Dallas also just hasn’t played well of their own accord. 

They’ve missed bunnies at the basket, they’ve short-circuited their own pick-and-roll plays, and they’ve missed easy opportunities to post up against mismatches inside. Those things are fixable, and I believe the do-or-die effort we’ll see from the Wings will go a long way toward fixing them.

The Aces have also quietly been much worse on the road in the latter half of the season. Over the last 10 games, the Aces have a ho-hum +3.3 net rating on the road, compared to their mind-bending 14.1 rating at home over that same span.

Las Vegas is also running a tight six-person rotation. Foul trouble to any of their key players will hamper their ability to score, and it’s not like they haven’t been fouling. Four of the Aces' five starters had three fouls in Game 2. It wouldn’t take much for that distribution to land differently and drastically impact the game.

Lastly, Dallas has not had either of their top two players have a breakout game yet, and they’ve still managed to hang around. All it will take is an efficient game from one of Satou Sabally or Arike Ogunbowale in order to give the Wings a significant chance to win this game.

All told, I think the Wings have an excellent chance to win this game, certainly far better than the 30.3% implied odds a +230 moneyline suggests. It’s difficult to close out a good team on the road, and we’ve yet to see the Wings play close to their best basketball. While taking the six points is tempting, I think the best value lies in taking Dallas to win outright on Friday.

My best bet: Wings moneyline (+230 at bet365)

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Aces vs Wings Game 3 spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers are counting on a homecourt advantage bump for Game 3, with the spread available between -6 and -6.5 favoring the Aces. The line has moved as much as a full point from a low of -5.5, and as is generally the case you can expect any further movement before tip to favor the Aces. 

Las Vegas has done little to earn any skepticism, but if there is a blemish on its record, it lies in its ability to cover on the road. The Aces are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games. While the Wings ultimately lost Game 2, it was a close-run thing in the end, and they did end up covering. That moved the Wings to 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and I still think they can play much better.

Of course, A’ja could have another transcendent game and Sabally and Ogunbowale could both falter again and this line will look silly. But closing out a team on the first attempt, on the road, is always hard. I like the Wings’ chances.

The total for Friday has seen some slight fluctuation between 175.5 and 174.5, where it’s now available at most sportsbooks with expectations again of a high-scoring game. I can certainly see why. Both Game 1 and 2 ultimately went Over, but Game 2 only by the slimmest of margins.

I still believe that this Dallas offense isn’t close to hitting its ceiling yet. The rebounding battle turned in the Wings' favor in Game 2, and if Dallas can get better shooting from their star trio, they could push closer to the century mark. They certainly seem to get into a lot of shootouts in their own barn, with the Over going 11-1 in their last 12 home games.

But the longer a playoff series goes, the more likely it is to trend towards the Under. Defenses get locked in, players get tight, and every set play is sniffed out well before the ball is inbounded. 

The Aces’ scoring from the field wasn’t as potent in Game 2, but they made up for it because they got to the free-throw line 25 times. A little more discipline by Dallas could see that number cut in half in Game 3, and more than likely push this line Under 174.5

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Aces vs Wings betting trend to know

Aces are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Wings.

Aces vs Wings Game 3 game info

Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
Date: Friday, September 29, 2023
Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET

Aces vs Wings Game 3 key injuries

Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Wings: Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Diamond DeShields G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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