MVP-frontrunner A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces are on the warpath east today to take on the Connecticut Sun in a highly anticipated nationally televised showdown between two of the top contenders in the WNBA.
Both teams are laden with star talent, and for our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Sun on Sunday, July 17 we’ve broken down the key matchups to bring you the three best WNBA player prop bets for today’s game.
Aces vs. Sun props for July 17
Picks made on 7/17/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Aces vs. Sun props
The links below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Wilson’s growing dominance
A’ja Wilson just keeps improving on perfection. The 2020 WNBA MVP is playing the best basketball of her career and still somehow seems like she might just be scratching the surface of her transcendent superstardom. Wilson is averaging career highs in rebounds and blocks, but the real jump has been in her overall efficiency as a scorer.
Freed from the regressive offense preached by former Vegas head coach Bill Laimbeer, Wilson is thriving in the spacing produced by Becky Hammon’s team-wide emphasis on the 3-ball. A’ja is taking more shots from 0-3 feet from the basket than ever before, and her 58.9% true shooting percentage is by far the best mark of her career.
?????? THE MAYOR OF SC ??????
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) July 14, 2022
25 PTS // 3 STL // 10-15 FG@_ajawilson22 // #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/uFFv6ldJTu
And though she still makes her money on the interior, Wilson is even taking some threes herself. She’s shooting 36% on just over two attempts per game, foreshadowing another area where her game is destined to expand in the coming years. By shifting her shot diet toward buckets right at the rim or to those from outside the arc, she’s cut the least efficient mid-range shots out of her game in the process. It’s taken an already dominant scorer and made her even better.
The Sun’s bigs are a formidable challenge for Wilson, as they are for every center and forward in the WNBA, but A’ja is on another level. It might seem healthy to bet this line given that her average is 19.0 points per game, but that number is artificially lowered due to blowouts like Thursday’s 108-74 bludgeoning of the Liberty where Wilson played just 20 minutes. In a close contest like this, I like the Over.
Pick: A’Ja Wilson Over 19.5 points (-115 bet365)
Jones' rebounding edge
In a game of equally-matched opponents like this one, the outcome may very well be decided by who wins the battle on the glass. The Sun have a major trump card there in the form of 2021 WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones, who makes her living by grabbing boards and punishing teams inside. The three-time WNBA rebounding leader has an uncanny nose for the ball and a Terminator-like determination to match.
One statistic that might seem to favor the Under is that the Aces allow the lowest opponent offensive rebounding rate in the league at just 24.2%. But, much more importantly, the Aces also have the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the league at 23.2%.
JJ THREE-POINT PLAY! #CTSun pic.twitter.com/u6qFRoZ5H5
— Connecticut Sun (@ConnecticutSun) July 16, 2022
Their perimeter-oriented offense and transition defense leave it largely up to Wilson to work opportunistically on the offensive glass while the rest of the team hustles back as soon as a shot goes up. Jones is set to capitalize and hit the Over on boards as she’ll have plenty of help boxing out and getting good position as the Aces' barrage of threes rain down.
Like Wilson, Jones' minutes and numbers soar in matchups against perceived contenders, so getting plus money on this line is a value steal.
Pick: Jones Over 10.5 rebounds (+110 bet365)
Bonner can't live up to the line
At just 12.5, this might seem a paltry line to hammer the Under on for a distinguished wing scorer like Bonner, but her reputation has her overvalued. Bonner has only scored more than 12 points in two of her last 10 games, and there’s good reason to believe she’ll go Under again here.
Margins on scoring props are razor thin, so I only like to bet them if there’s a team or matchup context that strongly points one way or the other. In this case, there’s good reason to believe in the Under.
NOW THAT'S A BUZZER BEATER! @DEEBONNER24 | #CTSun pic.twitter.com/XogcUKqd4t
— Connecticut Sun (@ConnecticutSun) July 16, 2022
The Sun do a lot of their work by beasting opposing teams on the offensive glass, but they’re in for tough sledding against the Aces, who are tops in the “W” at limiting opponent second-chance points. Even if Bonner herself isn’t typically grabbing the rebound, she’s often benefiting by attacking a scrambled defense after a teammate kicks it back out.
The Sun also do a significant amount of their damage in transition and off opponent turnovers. They lead the league in points off opponent turnovers, generating 19.1 per game, five more than the Aces. But that’s a context-dependent advantage they won’t have against Las Vegas. Despite leading the WNBA in pace and being one of the higher-volume passing teams, the Aces turn the ball over less than any other team in the league.
Bonner hasn’t been worth this line in a few weeks, and with opportunities for easy baskets against the Aces few and far between, I like the Under.
Pick: DeWanna Bonner Under 12.5 points (-115 bet365)
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