Today's matchup pits two of the better teams in the WNBA, the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun, against one another. As both teams gear up for a playoff run, this is an intriguing matchup that could be important for seating and how the two teams are ultimately evaluated amongst the contenders.
The Aces possess a pair of star teammates, while the Sun rely on more of a balanced scoring attack. Judging from their previous matchups this season, we should expect perhaps the closest and most competitive game of the season series today.
Don't forget to check out our three favorite player prop picks for Aces vs. Sun as well.
Aces vs Sun odds
The line opened up as early as Friday night on a number of sportsbooks with a -2.5 spread in favor of the Aces, which has now shrunk anywhere between -1 to -1.5. The total opened up at 174.5 and has since increased to 175.5.
Odds via DraftKings. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Aces vs Sun predictions
Predictions made on 7/17/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aces vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CYT
• Date: Sunday, July 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Aces vs Sun betting preview
Key injuries
Aces: None.
Sun: Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Aces vs Sun picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
One of the most consistent factors for this season has been the Aces' ability to score a lot of points on a nightly basis. They currently average 91.3 points per game, which ranks first in the WNBA. In fact, Las Vegas is the only team in the WNBA averaging over 90 points per game. The Sun can score as well, as their 84.5 points per game are the third highest.
Over the last 10 games, the Aces are a modest 5-5 while the Sun are 6-4. As the season progresses closer to the playoffs, it will be important for each team to hunker down and start winning like they were earlier in the season.
For the season, Las Vegas and Connecticut have battled twice, which led to an 89-81 Aces victory in March and a 97-90 Sun victory in June. The Sun are coming off a very strong performance against the Atlanta Dream, where they won by 25 points on the road. Jonquel Jones has been a strong presence for the Sun all season and will be a problem for the Aces to handle. Jones has scored over 20 points in each of her last three games and combined for 33 rebounds.
A’ja Wilson often runs the center position in a small ball lineup for Las Vegas. At 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, it’s fair to wonder if she can handle the size of the 6-foot-6 and 202-pound Jones. In the last matchup between the two teams, Jones was comfortable with the challenge, scoring 20 points and helping lead the Sun to victory. With her consistent play of late, I’d expect to see more of the same.
Prediction: Sun +1 (-110 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
As stated earlier, both teams know how to score with relative ease. The Aces have the best scoring offense in the league, and that starts with the dynamic duo of Wilson and Kelsey Plum.
Plum, a 27-year-old from California, is widely known as the best shooter in the WNBA. Plum is shooting a remarkable 42% from 3-point range, frustrating opponents with her deadly accuracy. Her production doesn’t just stop there, as she’s a reliable playmaker, dishing out 5.5 assists per game.
Of course, basketball is a team sport, and Plum has a running mate who is among the best in the sport in the aforementioned Wilson. Wilson, 25, has established herself as one of the best in the business, averaging 19 points and 10 rebounds per game on 50% shooting.
The Aces have performed well in Over/Under this year at 14-8-2, while the Sun are at 11-11. The Sun are not like most teams, who rely on one or two players to score most of the team's points on a given night. Connecticut counts on five different players to contribute double-digit scoring on a nightly basis. The Aces have the highest offensive rating (110.4), while the Sun have the third-highest (105.6). We expect this one to be a shootout.
Prediction: Over 175 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Basketball has transitioned over the last decade to a game that caters more toward spacing and shooting. One of the players capitalizing off of this is Plum, the 2022 WNBA All-Star Game MVP — and the league's best shooter — currently averaging 20.2 points, 5.5 assists, and 3 rebounds per game.
Plum’s rise this year has been remarkable as she went from an early-career backup to a bona fide star. In two games this year against the Sun, Plum has essentially managed to maintain her scoring average with an average of 20.5 points in the two contests.
For the season, Plum has scored over her average of 20.2 points 10 different times. The Sun possess one of the better defenses, and their defensive rating (96.9) ranks third best in the league. Even so, the Sun’s defense will have its hands full with Plum, who is averaging 26 points over her last three games.
Pick: Kelsey Plum Over 20.5 (-115 at bet365)
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