Aces vs Lynx Predictions, Picks, Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

One way or another, Pat Riley will look smart at the end of this Las Vegas Aces season. Either he'll make money by owning the copyright to the portmanteau “three-peat” or he will look prescient for once describing the greatest difficulty of such a title chase as “the disease of more.”

This third title will clearly be the most difficult, and not just because they've played more games than any other WNBA team in recent years. The league has also improved. Look no further than the Minnesota Lynx.

The Lynx opened last season 0-6 before rallying to reach the playoffs by two games. They have opened this season 4-1 despite being underdogs in all four games. There's plenty of reason to believe Minnesota is for real, most of all its defense, and that's what we'll trust in our WNBA picks as we dig into Aces vs Lynx predictions.

Aces vs Lynx predictions

My best bet
Aces team total Under 86.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Betting any sport early in the season can provide value if making the correct assessments of teams before oddsmakers’ numbers catch up to them. There's even more value to be had if, just as a hypothetical, as a still-underappreciated sport was beginning its season, it was overshadowed by two sets of playoffs in other sports.

Oh, hey, the WNBA season is already two weeks old.

And the Minnesota Lynx are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread despite being underdogs in all five games. The sportsbooks have not yet appropriately adjusted to their improved roster, one led by a genuine MVP candidate in Napheesa Collier, one of the game’s best shotmakers in Kayla McBride, and a rotation deep enough that rookie and No. 8 overall pick Alissa Pill has yet to genuinely crack it.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces are 1-3 ATS despite being 3-1 straight-up, favored by at least 13.5 points in all four of their games. Why not just jump on Minnesota +4.5 then? In no small part because that number has moved so much, opening in Tuesday’s earliest hours at +6.5. Comparatively, the total did not move as much, falling to 169.5 after opening at 172.

No, instead focus on the Las Vegas team total. Trends from both sides of this game agree with fading the Aces’ offense tonight.

Minnesota has jumped out to this start thanks to its defense. To give the simple and pertinent stat, Lynx opponents have hit the Under on their respective team totals in four of their five games, the exception coming in the second game of the year and the second straight game against the Seattle Storm. Seattle had a chance to adjust in three days, and its offense recovered.

Las Vegas has hit the Under on its own respective team totals in three of its four games, the exception coming against the young and dividing Indiana Fever, which has the worst defense in the WNBA by 5.7 points per 100 possessions.

The Lynx are 20 points per 100 possessions better on defense than the Fever. The Aces’ one game of offensive success should not be granted much credence, and that will show up tonight.

Aces vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)

Aces team total Under 86.5

Alanna Smith Over 13.5 points

Kayla McBride Over 14.5 points

+650 at bet365

Part of the Aces’ offensive woes have come from their struggling defense. It currently ranks No. 8 in the WNBA in rating, and while Las Vegas has played only four games, that could be a sign of worries to come.

Each time an opponent scores, the Aces’ advantages of continuity and athleticism are diminished. They cannot get into transition as easily. The opposing defense can get set, and life gets more difficult.

Opponents are scoring their best against Las Vegas from deep, hitting 41.8% of their threes this season, the highest allowed in the league, on 27.5 attempts per game, the most attempted threes allowed in the league.

Alanna Smith has hit 64.7% of her threes this season, and Kayla McBride has hit 51.4% of hers. No one else on the Lynx roster is hitting more than a third of their 3-pointers this season, making it rather clear what two players will chuck against this struggling Aces defense and, in doing so, also limit Las Vegas’s offense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Aces vs Lynx odds

Aces vs Lynx live odds

Get the latest Aces vs. Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.

Aces vs Lynx opening odds

• Spread: Las Vegas -6.5 | Minnesota +6.5
• Moneyline: Las Vegas -275 | Minnesota +225
• Over/Under: Over 172 | Under 172

Aces vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis

• WNBA lines are prone to more movement than other leagues’, simply as an underappreciated market. No injury reason moved this number from +6.5 to +4.5 or +4, with a valley at +3.5, only opportunistic bettors ahead of the books.
  
  
• The total falling 2.5 points since Tuesday night is a testament to Minnesota’s defense, though an argument could be made it does not appropriately recognize Las Vegas’s defensive struggles.
  
  
• In going 5-0 ATS, the Lynx have beaten bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 15.3 points.

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Aces vs Lynx trend

In going 1-3 ATS, the Aces have fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 14 points in the three ATS losses and 9.8 points across all four games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Lynx.

Aces vs Lynx game info

Aces vs Lynx latest injuries

Aces: Chelsea Gray G (Out), Kierstan Bell F (Out).
Lynx: Diamond Miller F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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