The Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx begin the first of a two-game set in Minneapolis on Friday, July 1.
The Aces will look to right the ship after their first rough patch of the season, while the Lynx hope to avenge their loss against Las Vegas from two weeks ago.
Check out our WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Lynx below, and why we think this game might be closer than most books are suggesting.
Aces vs Lynx odds
The Las Vegas Aces are getting between a 4- and 4.5-point edge over the Minnesota Lynx. The total opened at 173.5 and has fallen to 173 at some books.
Odds via bet365. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
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Aces vs Lynx predictions
Predictions made on 7/1/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aces vs Lynx info
• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Friday, July 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: MYLVTV, Bally Sports North Extra
Aces vs Lynx betting preview
Key injuries
Aces: No injuries to report.
Lynx: Napheesa Collier (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Aces are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, Lynx are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Lynx.
Aces vs Lynx picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Aces are 14-5, tied with the Connecticut Sun for the best record in the WNBA, and sole holders of the top spot in the Western Conference. Though it’s been a storybook season for Aces overall, they’ve finally hit some adversity of late.
The Aces are just 1-3 in their last four games, including losses to fellow title contenders in the Seattle Storm and Chicago Sky. While their free-wheeling push-the-tempo offense has paid dividends, they’ve also recently wilted against on-ball pressure and have been coughing up turnovers at an alarming rate.
It would be easy to overreact. This team oozes talent with A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Kelsey Plum all playing at and above All-Star levels, and their offensive process is still sound, even though they’ve looked shaky at times against good teams in the clutch.
What’s been a dream season for Las Vegas has been, in turn, a nightmare for Minnesota. It’s a strange sight, seeing the mighty Lynx at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings at 6-14. Still, this is matchup against the Aces is not likely to be the blowout some are projecting it to be.
While the Lynx started a grizzly 3-13, they've won three of their last four and seem to be figuring some things out. With Sylvia Fowles back in the lineup, the Lynx look like a different team. While Fowles doesn’t quite have her fastball anymore, in her age 36 season, she’s still one of the best defenders in the WNBA and remains a consistently efficient interior scorer.
That interior presence may well be the difference between this game and the last time these two squads played a couple of weeks ago. In that last meeting, the Aces won by a single point in a high-scoring 96-95 thriller on June 19. Even without Fowles in the lineup, the Lynx were able to keep things close against the Aces. Lynx newcomer Moriah Jefferson has also given Minnesota some juice off the bounce from the guard position they’ve been sorely missing.
On overall record alone this might look like an easy Aces cover, but I like the Lynx to keep their recent rebound going.
Prediction: Lynx +4.0 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
This is a high total, but there’s something to be said for the Over anyway. In their last game against each other, the Aces and Lynx combined for 191 points.
While Sylvia Fowles returning might cause some to lean toward the Under, her value as a two-way player might well be a net neutral when it comes to considering the total. Fowles is an outstanding interior defender, yes, but the Aces under Becky Hammon are an increasingly perimeter-oriented offense.
Not to mention that, when the Lynx are on offense, the Aces will have to send double teams to guard Fowles down low, which might lead one of the WNBA’s lower 3-point volume teams to increase their attempts and effectiveness from outside.
Gravity in basketball almost always builds from the inside out, and the Lynx getting their best post scorer back should see them cash in more from long range.
Prediction: Over 173.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
The Aces are slipping a little from their early season dominance, and they’re not helped by a quick turnaround traveling from Seattle on Wednesday to play the Lynx in Minnesota on Friday.
In terms of the spread, these two teams couldn’t be diverging more strongly at the moment. While the Aces are 0-6 against the spread in their last six outings, the Lynx are 6-0 in that same span. Markets haven’t quite adjusted yet to this Aces rough patch, nor to the Lynx’s recent resurrection with Fowles’ return.
That combination leaves a significant margin to bet the Lynx to cover again today.
Pick: Lynx +4.0 (-110 at bet365)
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