The Birmingham Stallions and Houston Gamblers both sit at 1-0 after Week 1 of the USFL. One side will pick up its first loss on Saturday — but which one will it be?
The Stallions trailed by a touchdown at the half and in the fourth quarter but rallied late behind quarterback J’Mar Smith to find a thrilling 28-24 win.
The Gamblers benefitted from timely turnovers in a 17-12 win over the Michigan Panthers. Kevin Sumlin’s squad was the only underdog to win outright in the opening weekend of action.
Check out our USFL picks and predictions for the Birmingham Stallions vs. Houston Gamblers on Saturday, April 23.
Stallions vs Gamblers odds
| Birmingham Stallions | Houston Gamblers | |
|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | +3 |
| -150 | Moneyline | +130 |
| Over 40.5 (-110) | Total | Under 40.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of April 23, 2022.
The Stallions range from a -3 to -3.5 across various books. The total can be had from as low as 40.5 to as high as 41.5. Be sure to shop around, as both game lines and totals fluctuate from book to book for the USFL.
Stallions vs Gamblers predictions
Predictions made on 4/21/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Stallions vs Gamblers game info
• Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
• Date: Saturday, April 23, 2022
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1
Stallions at Gamblers betting preview
Weather
The opening weekend in Birmingham had unfortunate weather, with games being delayed due to thunderstorms. This Saturday should be a different story, as the current forecast calls for mostly clear skies, a high of 84 degrees Fahrenheit and low of 63 degrees at night, and winds of 5 to 10 miles per hour.
Key injuries
Stallions: No injuries to report.
Gamblers: No injuries to report.
Stallions vs Gamblers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
It’s unclear who will get the start for the Stallions under center on Saturday. Alex McGough started Week 1 before going down to an ankle injury in the second quarter, leading to the emergence of J’Mar Smith, who completed 11 of 21 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown while also scrambling for the game-winning score.
Smith has familiarity with coach Skip Holtz from their days together at Louisiana Tech. He led a beautiful come-from-behind victory in the fourth quarter and will, in all likelihood, earn the starting gig against the Gamblers.
The Gamblers earned a 17-12 victory over the Panthers in Week 1, but the underlying numbers paint the story that this is hardly a dominant team. The Gamblers allowed the second-most yards in the league (362) in Week 1, but five Panthers fumbles led to an artificially decreased scoring output. They were gashed for 189 yards on the ground and allowed 173 more through the air.
Houston’s offense struggled mightily in the opener, managing just 174 total yards. The Clayton Thorson-led offense managed only 4.1 yards per pass attempt and 3.8 yards per rush.
Birmingham displayed a downfield passing attack with two receiving threats in Osirus Mitchell and Victor Bolden Jr. This should be a pro-Stallion crowd, as all regular-season games are being played in Birmingham. We’re fading the Gamblers as the box score for their Week 1 victory had several red flags.
Prediction: Stallions -3 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
I’m inclined to play every Under on the board in the USFL until given a good reason not to. Let’s dig into this matchup and see if that rule of thumb applies.
Birmingham has some offensive firepower, led by standout receivers Osirus Mitchell (5 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown) and Victor Bolden Jr. (4 catches for 45 yards). Mitchell, in particular, flashed big-play potential with his 6-foot-5 frame and impressive hands. The former Mississippi State Bulldog reeled in a highlight one-handed catch for the Stallions’ first touchdown of the season and should remain a deep-ball threat.
The Stallions appeared suspect defensively in the opener, allowing 409 total yards. The rushing defense allowed a league-high 223 yards on the ground while the secondary surrendered 186 yards via the air. Houston’s offense was dreadful in the opener, but Kevin Sumlin is an offensive-minded coach and some improvement in that area against a beatable Stallions defense is likely.
Despite my rule of beginning my handicap with the Under for every USFL game, I’m actually leaning the other way on this total. The Stallions and Gamblers were far and away the two worst defenses in Week 1 from a yardage standpoint.
Prediction: Over 40.5 (-105 at bet365)
Best bet
Laying too many points isn’t recommended in a fledgling Spring football league, but Birmingham can be had while laying just a field goal. That’s a price we like.
Kevin Sumlin was last seen coaching an Arizona Wildcats team that lost 70-7 to its rival, the Arizona State Sun Devils. Don’t let the Week 1 win fool you — the Gamblers weren’t impressive from a statistical standpoint and benefited from five Panthers fumbles. Skip Holtz was a winning coach against the spread for years in college, and we’re banking on those covering ways to continue in the USFL now that he’s found his quarterback.ation
Pick: Stallions -3 (-110 at bet365)
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