Jeremy Stephens vs. Mateusz Gamrot is on the main card for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, July 17.
This should be an absolute banger between Stephens, the self-proclaimed hardest hitter at 145 pounds who moved up to lightweight, and a young up-and-comer in Gamrot.
UFC betting lines have Gamrot installed as a -220 favorite while the veteran Stephens comes back at +176.
Here are our best free Stephens vs. Gamrot picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night action on July 17 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Stephens vs Gamrot fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Stephens vs Gamrot method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Jeremy Stephens | Mateusz Gamrot |
|---|---|---|
| Win by KO/TKO | +460 | +195 |
| Win by Points | +460 | +210 |
| Win by Submission | +1,700 | +1,100 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of July 12, 2021.
Stephens vs Gamrot betting preview
Jeremy "Lil Heathen" Stephens will be fighting at lightweight for the first time since 2012 and was scheduled to face Drakkar Klose at 155 pounds in April before he pushed Klose during weigh-ins, which ended up injuring the other fighter.
Stephens' previous bout was a second-round knockout loss to Calvin Kattar in May of 2020. The 35-year-old has now lost four fights in a row, albeit against some of the biggest names in the featherweight division such as Kattar, Yair Rodriguez, Zabit Magomedsharipov, and Jose Aldo.
The 35-year-old has been in the UFC since 2007 and is known for his high-pressure striking and power, with 19 of his 28 career MMA wins coming by way of knockout.
Mateusz "Gamer" Gamrot made his UFC debut with a split-decision loss to Guram Kutateladze last October but bounced back with a win in his last bout: a second-round TKO win over Scott Holtzman in April.
The former two-time KSW lightweight champion is a very crisp technical boxer with good footwork and the ability to switch stances. But the Polish fighter also has a solid wrestling base and likes to work in level changes.
Stephens vs Gamrot tale of the tape
| Jeremy Stephens | Mateusz Gamrot | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 156 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 70.5 inches |
| 28-18-0 (19 KO) | Record | 18-1-0 (6 KO) |
Stephens vs Gamrot UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 rounds (-115) - Even at this stage of his career, Stephens is still a wildly entertaining fighter that loves to stand and trade strikes with his opponents. Unfortunately, he's also very hittable and simply can't withstand the damage he used to walk through.
By piecing up Holtzman en route to a knockout victory just three months ago, Gamrot proved that he has the striking ability to finish a UFC veteran — even one with a solid boxing background.
That said, Stephens is a bit undervalued with this line, still has dangerous striking ability and power, and Gamrot has shown a tendency to leave himself open to uppercuts — and was dropped to the mat by Kutateladze in his UFC debut. We're expecting a finish in this one and with Lil Heathen beginning bouts at an aggressive pace, we're taking the Under 2.5 on the total rounds.
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