Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos Predictions, Picks & Odds

Sodiq Yusuff is trying to rewrite the narrative after a pair of losses and prove he’s not prospect bait against young Mairon Santos.

Santos will step up the competition, while Yusuff hopes to avoid suffering a detrimental third loss in a row when the two clash at UFC Fight Night. 

UFC odds favor Santos at -150, with Yusuff returning as a +130 underdog in Las Vegas tonight.

Here are my best Yusuff vs. Santos predictions for Saturday, May 17.

Yusuff vs Santos prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Yusuff moneyline (+130 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-220 at BET99)

Fight analysis
When Yusuff debuted in the UFC back in 2018, it didn’t take long for him to get noticed thanks to his high-volume striking and polished skill set. But it also didn’t take long for him to hit a roadblock, starting with a 2020 loss to Arnold Allen.

While some feel he’s hit his developmental ceiling, it may be too soon to relegate him to gatekeeper status, though this matchup against Santos suggests that’s the direction the UFC may be leaning.

Yusuff is moving up in weight to face Santos after being a solid top-15 featherweight contender. However, he’s on a two-fight skid for two very different reasons. Diego Lopes overwhelmed him early with a first-round knockout, and before that, Edson Barboza dropped him and outworked him, along with taking him down three times. At his best, Yusuff is a sharp boxer with good power and tight defense, but questions about his chin and focus remain, especially with the added variable of moving up a division.

Santos, the TUF 32 winner, is coming off a shaky split decision win over Francis Marshall, where he struggled with pace and gave up three takedowns. Statistically, Santos has a solid +1.77 striking differential, indicating he can land and defend efficiently. Still, Marshall was a grappler, and Kaan Ofli, whom Santos stopped in two rounds, isn’t the type of high-volume striker Yusuff is.

This fight may come down to who can apply the more effective pressure. Yusuff will look to slow Santos down with crisp, accurate shots and prevent him from settling into a rhythm. On the flip side, if Santos uses his size and athleticism early, he could break through Yusuff’s guard with a big shot and change the dynamic.

While Yusuff’s stock has dipped, Santos is still very green, and this is a step up in competition. I’m not ready to write Yusuff off yet. Yusuff is the pick in a minor upset.

Best bet analysis
This fight is likely to lean technical, to the dismay of fight fans. Yusuff won’t recklessly push forward against the naturally bigger Santos, and Santos is unlikely to go full throttle given the striking caliber of his opponent. Both prefer to keep fights standing, but neither is overly aggressive in forcing finishes. Yusuff tends to manage his output and avoids overcommitting, especially against bigger, longer fighters. My best bet is that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds.

Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos odds

Method of Victory	Yusuff	Santos
To win outright	+130	-150
To win by KO/TKO	+625	+325
To win by decision	+245	+155
To win by submission	+1150	+1550
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 5-17.

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Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos tale of the tape

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