Thiago Santos vs. Magomed Ankalaev is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on March 12.
This should be an intriguing bout between a former light heavyweight contender in Santos and a young up-and-comer looking to earn a title shot in Ankalaev. Oddsmakers are expecting a lopsided matchup with UFC betting lines opening with Ankalaev at -400 before shifting to -500, while Santos comes back at +380.
Here are our best Santos vs. Ankalaev picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, March 12 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Santos vs Ankalaev fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Santos vs Ankalaev method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Thiago Santos | Magomed Ankalaev |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +650 | +110 |
| To win by Points | +1,200 | +140 |
| To win by Submission | +3,500 | +800 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on March 8, 2022
Santos vs Ankalaev picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Santos vs Ankalaev betting preview
Thiago "Marreta" Santos is the No. 5-ranked light heavyweight contender and is coming off a decision win against Johnny Walker in October, which snapped a three-fight losing streak.
However, those defeats came against some of the best in the division including a close title loss to Jon Jones, a third-round submission to current champ Glover Teixeira, and a lackluster decision against No. 3 ranked contender Aleksandar Rakic last March.
Santos had gone 8-1 in his previous nine UFC fights prior to that title challenge against Jones, including stoppage wins against Jan Blachowicz and Anthony Smith. The 38-year-old has scary power with his kicks and dynamite in his hands, with eight of his last 10 wins coming by way of knockout.
Magomed Ankalaev is No. 6 in the light heavyweight rankings and is on a seven-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Volkan Oezdemir by unanimous decision in October.
Ankalaev has just one loss in his MMA career, when he made his promotional debut four years ago against submission-specialist Paul Craig and was en route to a clear victory before getting caught in a triangle choke with one second left in the bout.
The 29-year-old has a background in combat sambo and is a very well-rounded fighter that combines strong wrestling ability with powerful and accurate kickboxing.
Santos vs Ankalaev tale of the tape
| Thiago Santos | Magomed Ankalaev | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 29 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 206 lbs | Weight | 205 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 22-9 (15 KOs) | Record | 16-1 (9 KOs) |
Santos vs Ankalaev UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Ankalaev (-500)
It's easy to see why Ankalaev is the favorite in this fight. He's younger, more well-rounded, and his career trajectory appears to be heading in the opposite direction from Santos.
Marreta might have snapped his losing streak against Walker but he didn't impress in that bout, with both fighters seemingly wary of each other's power.
Truth is, he hasn't looked good after that close loss to Jones where he tore the ACL, MCL, and PCL in his left knee and suffered ligament damage to his right knee. Those injuries seem to have limited his explosiveness and the effectiveness of his Muay Thai, which has severely hurt his offensive output.
Ankalaev is very precise and powerful in his striking and can rely on his wrestling and clinch work when things get messy.
There's a reason why this next generation of light heavyweights, including Anklalaev, Rakic, Jiri Prochazka, and Jamahal Hill, (maybe even Vadim Nemkov if he signs with the promotion) is expected to battle for the belt for the next several years.
That said, while Ankalaev should get the win, this line seems way too wide. Especially when you consider that Ankalaev has a tendency to coast for significant periods of time and hasn't fought more than three rounds since an early fourth-round finish of Maxim Grishin at World Fighting Championship Akhmat in 2016. So, look elsewhere for betting value in this bout.
Best bet: Fight to start Round 4 (-125)
Santos was a proven finisher earlier in his career while Ankalaev might be best known for back-to-back first-round knockout wins against Ion Cutelaba in 2020. That said, MMA is about what have you done for me lately and both fighters haven't displayed much aggression in recent bouts.
Three of Santos' last four fights have gone the distance, and his last two (against Walker and Rakic) were lackluster affairs with Santos seemingly reluctant to pull the trigger.
Likewise, Ankalaev's last two fights have gone the full 15 minutes, with the Dagestani fighter utilizing his wrestling and a more measured approach in striking exchanges and not throwing with much volume.
He started slowly against Nikita Krylov last February and while he dropped Oezdemir in the opening round, he dialed down the aggressiveness and seemed content to counter for the rest of the fight.
Don't be surprised if neither fighter engages with much offensive pressure in this one, and back this bout to reach the championship rounds.
