Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang Predictions, Picks & Odds

Anthony Smith’s farewell clash with Mingying Zhang serves as the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night, matching the decorated veteran against a potential rising star as a last hurrah.

UFC odds favour Zhang at -525, with Smith a +350 underdog, and my Smith vs. Mingyang predictions don't expect a fairy tale ending for "Lionheart".

Smith vs Mingyang prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Mingyang ML (-525 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Mingyang by KO/TKO/DQ (-225 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Smith has gone on record saying this will be his final fight, and honestly, it couldn’t come soon enough. The former title contender is well past his best and has absorbed a tremendous amount of punishment in recent years.

There are no golden parachutes in combat sports, especially when you’re facing a finishing machine like Zhang, who has stoppages in all 18 of his wins — including three first-round finishes since joining the UFC.

Smith has only two wins over the last four years: a shock submission over Vitor Petrino and a narrow decision over Ryan Spann, where he was visibly marked up and gassed by the second round.

Since the Petrino upset, Smith has dropped two in a row and has been outlanded 221-72 in significant strikes, getting knocked out and taken down in the process. There was a time when Smith’s veteran savvy and high-level experience could have made him a live underdog, but at 36 years old and with 58 pro fights on his resume, he’s showing all the signs of a fighter at the end.

The defense isn’t there anymore, and the durability is fading, which are bad traits to have against a fighter like Zhang. Zhang is landing 8.57 significant strikes per minute and has yet to see a fight go the distance. 

His brutal win over Ozzy Diaz last November earned him his second straight Performance of the Night bonus and showcased a dynamic, evolving striking arsenal. At just 26 years old, Zhang is a fast-rising contender, and the UFC sees his potential, matching him with a respected veteran to give him name value.

It’s hard to see this fight playing out any way other than Smith entering in survival mode and ending up on his back. His losses to Dominick Reyes and Roman Dolidze exposed just how much he’s declined to the point where he’s unable to pull the trigger, let alone mount any resistance.

Now, he’s up against a young lion with fast hands, relentless pressure, and elite finishing instincts. As long as Zhang doesn’t get reckless and fall into a Hail Mary submission, this should be as one-sided as it gets.

The call is Zhang dominating Smith and sending him into retirement with an emphatic finish.

Best bet analysis
This doesn’t look good for Smith in the slightest.

He’s going up against an intense striker that hasn’t shown any exploitable holes in his game, and even if he did, he’s long past the point where he could make something happen. Being competitive would be something of an upset.

Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang odds

Method of Victory	Smith	Mingyang
To win outright	+335	-475
To win by KO/TKO	+1400	-225
To win by decision	+800	+550
To win by submission	+1100	+900
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 4-26.

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Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang tale of the tape

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