Brandon Moreno faces off against rising newcomer Lone'er Kavanagh in the main event of UFC Fight Night.
UFC odds have the former two-time flyweight champion Moreno installed as a -225 favorite, and I expect the Mexican native to come out on top.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh predictions for Saturday, February 28, from the Arena CDMX in Mexico City.
Moreno vs Kavanagh prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Moreno moneyline (-225 at BET99)
- My best bet: Moreno moneyline (-225 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Lone’er Kavanagh is a promising talent, but this fight may be a case of jumping in too soon. The 26-year-old has only three UFC bouts under his belt, and in his most recent bout, he suffered a knockout loss to Charles Johnson.
Meanwhile, Brandon Moreno is the former UFC Flyweight champion and has faced the cream of the crop in this division. Although Moreno is 2-3 in his last five fights, all those losses came against Top-3 ranked opponents, with two of them coming by split decision.
Kavanagh also took this fight on three weeks’ notice, and it’s his first scheduled five-round bout. He has shown fatigue in three-round fights, which could lead to him gassing out at the high altitude of Mexico City.
Best bet analysis
The only reason Moreno is priced this low is that he’s three months removed from a second-round TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira. However, Kavanagh is nowhere near Taira’s level at this stage of his career.
Kavanagh is the first unranked opponent Moreno has faced in a decade, and the Mexican fighter is more skilled across the board. Factor in the altitude and Moreno’s five-round experience, and he’s a bargain at -225.
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Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Moreno | Kavanagh |
| To win outright | -200 | +165 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +440 | +475 |
| To win by decision | +190 | +405 |
| To win by submission | +315 | +2400 |
| Draw | +3000 | +3000 |
Odds as of 2-28.
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Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh tale of the tape
| Moreno | Kavanagh | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 26 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 23-9-2 | Record | 9-1 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 4 |
| 11 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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