Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori is the main event at UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, December 5 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
This should be an intriguing battle between a pair of middleweight contenders with similar styles after Vettori replaced Kevin Holland following a positive COVID-19 test .
Hermansson was a -250 favorite against Holland but this is expected to be a much closer fight as the Joker comes in with UFC odds of +116 against Vettori.
We break down the UFC betting odds for this middleweight battle as we bring you our picks and predictions for Hermansson vs. Vettori at UFC Fight Night on December 5.
Hermansson vs Vettori Fight Odds
|Method of Victory||Jack Hermansson||Marvin Vettori|
|Win by KO/TKO||+340||+260|
|Win by points||+550||+380|
|Win by submission||+550||+550|
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Hermansson vs Vettori Betting Preview
Jack "The Joker" Hermansson is currently No. 4 in the UFC middleweight rankings and is fresh off a first-round submission win over Kelvin Gastelum in July. That victory allowed him to bounce back from a knockout loss to Jared Cannonier and improved his record to 5-1 over his last six fights.
Hermansson isn't the most polished striker but he is an excellent grappler, with three of his last four wins coming via submission.
The "Italian Dream" Marvin Vettori enters as the No. 13 middleweight and is coming off a first-round finish of Karl Roberson in June. Vettori is now 4-1-1 in his last six fights, with that draw coming against No. 12 middleweight Omari Akhmedov and the loss coming by split decision to the champ Israel Adesanya.
The 27-year-old is a well-rounded fighter who combines high-pressure striking with good grappling and submission skills.
Hermansson vs Vettori Tale of the Tape
|Jack Hermansson||Marvin Vettori|
|185 lbs||Weight||185 lbs|
|77.5 inches||Reach||74 inches|
|21-5-0 (11 KO)||Record||15-4-1 (2 KO)|
Hermansson vs Vettori UFC Predictions and Betting Pick
PREDICTION: Hermansson to win +116 - The Joker was expected to own Holland on the mat and the fact that he's now going up against a strong grappler in Vettori is a major reason this line is practically a pick 'em.
That said, while Vettori is a high-output striker he lacks finishing ability and Hermansson will be able to use his superior length and clinch ability to do damage.
If Vettori can keep this fight standing up he has a chance, but he doesn't have enough power to pose too much of a threat and Hermansson has more paths to victory. With the more experienced and higher-ranked Hermansson now installed as the underdog the betting value is swinging his way.
PREDICTION: Hermansson by submission +550 - Vettori has never been finished in his career and is strong on the mat but Hermansson is on a whole other level when it comes to submissions and is a far more dangerous grappler than the Italian Dream's recent opponents.
Vettori is a high-pressure fighter while Hermansson tends to counter and level change. That should result in Vettori ending up in an unfamiliar position, on his back, which will give an advantage to The Joker.
With three of Hermansson's last four wins coming by submission, there's certainly value on backing this prop at +550.
PREDICTION: Over 2.5 rounds -126 - These guys have plenty of finishes in their careers but six of Vettori's last seven fights have gone the distance.
As for Hermansson, while nine of his previous 10 fights ended in stoppage (including six in the first round), he won't find it easy to find an early finish against a fighter like Vettori and he'd be wise stay at a distance and pick his spots in the early going.
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