Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, December 4 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
This should be an exciting fight between a pair of bantamweight contenders who can bang. UFC betting lines opened with Font as a -185 favorite but that has since shortened to -145, while Aldo comes back at +125.
Here are our best free Font vs. Aldo picks and predictions for UFC Vegas 44.
Font vs Aldo fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Font vs Aldo method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Rob Font | Jose Aldo |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +240 | +460 |
| To win by Points | +230 | +310 |
| To win by Submission | +1,300 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of November 29, 2021.
Font vs Aldo picks
Click on the pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Font vs Aldo betting preview
Rob Font is the No. 4-ranked bantamweight contender and has won four fights in a row, most recently against former champ Cody Garbrandt in May when he took a unanimous decision victory over five rounds. Font made his promotional debut with a first-round knockout of George Roop in 2014. He's 9-3 in the UFC with five of those wins coming by way of KO/TKO.
The 34-year-old is capable on the mat but his bread-and-butter is his boxing ability. Font likes to pressure with his jab which creates openings for his power shots.
Jose Aldo is a former featherweight champion and one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters in MMA history. He's coming off back-to-back unanimous decision victories against Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz.
The 35-year-old is a terrific striker who kicks with tremendous power and is able to keep fights standing up thanks to his excellent takedown defense. He also has a very underrated grappling game and competed in the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship before making the move to MMA.
Font vs Aldo tale of the tape
| Rob Font | Jose Aldo | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| 136 lbs | Weight | 136 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 19-4-0 (8 KO) | Record | 30-7-0 (17 KO) |
Font vs Aldo UFC prediction and betting picks
Aldo moneyline (+125)
Aldo's legendary reputation took a bit of a hit when he went 3-6 between 2015 and 2020. However, one of those defeats was by split-decision and the other five came against some of the best fighters in the world like Connor McGregor, Max Holloway (twice), Alexander Volkanovski, and Petr Yan.
Since dropping down to bantamweight and getting rocked by Yan when they fought for the interim belt, Aldo has been a bit underrated by oddsmakers. He opened at -125 against Vera, closed at almost even money versus Munhoz, and now he's getting plus money.
Font has great hands but he can be a bit one-dimensional in his approach and tends to rely on pawing his jab in order to set everything else up. He has less of a reach advantage on Aldo than most of the other fighters he has beaten recently and the Brazilian should be able to disrupt Font's boxing with his leg kicks.
Aldo simply has more in his toolbox, including grappling ability, distance management, and the power to hurt Font during inside exchanges. Back the slim underdog.
Aldo to win by points (+310)
Font has never been finished by strikes and his striking defense has shown improvement during his recent winning streak.
Aldo had some thrilling knockouts earlier in his career, but his last two fights have come by decision. Going all the way back to 2014, five of Aldo's previous seven victories came by points, including three bouts that were scheduled for 25 minutes.
Fight to go the distance - Yes (-118)
Four of Font's last five fights have gone the distance, while four of Aldo's previous five contests have also gone to the judges' cards.
The one Aldo bout during that span that ended within the distance was his TKO loss to Yan, but that lasted until late in the fifth round until the ref stopped it. Aldo showed plenty of toughness in that fight and it's unlikely that Font can hurt him the same way with ground-and-pound.
