Steve Erceg vs Ode’ Osbourne Predictions, Picks & Odds

Former title challenger Steve Erceg is ready to fight, and he’s had not one, but two changes of opponents before Ode' Osbourne signed to oppose him in the co-main event of this evening's UFC Fight Night card.

The grapple-heavy Erceg hopes to snap a three-fight losing streak, while Osbourne is aiming for an upset to blast him up the rankings. 

Erceg is the -550 favorite over the +450 underdog Osbourne in the UFC odds. Here are my best Erceg vs. Osbourne predictions and free betting picks from Las Vegas. 

Erceg vs Osbourne prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Erceg moneyline (-550 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Erceg by decision or submission (-200 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Even though Steve Erceg has been confirmed for this card since it was announced, it’s worth noting that he’s had to make multiple adjustments from first expecting Hyung Sung Park, then Alex Perez, and now Ode' Osbourne.

Osbourne is an athletic, explosive striker who will enjoy a five-inch reach advantage and considerable stopping power. While he has struggled against strong grapplers and submission specialists, his speed and early-round aggression make him a real threat for Erceg, especially on short notice.

Erceg is a tough, well-rounded fighter whose recent setbacks have come only against the elite of the flyweight division. He nearly unseated champion Alexandre Pantoja in a razor-thin decision, but was stopped by Kai Kara-France and dropped another close fight to Brandon Moreno.

Although his UFC run has shown more of his striking than his grappling, Erceg still owns six career submission wins and is skilled at mixing his boxing with well-timed takedowns. One concern is his tendency to start slowly and only pick up the pace once he’s settled in, which is precisely what gives Osbourne a chance in this fight.

Osbourne is at his most dangerous in the opening round, often blitzing opponents with straight punches, knees, and heavy kicks in an all-out effort to score an early finish. That approach has worked best against other strikers, but he’s shown consistent cardio issues and has no real answer for quality wrestling, suffering four submission losses in his career.

On just a week’s notice, his gas tank will be an even bigger concern.

While Osbourne’s explosiveness could create tense moments early, Erceg’s composure, durability, and superior grappling should allow him to weather the storm and take over. This is the type of matchup that favors Erceg’s well-rounded skill set.

Best bet analysis
In his six UFC fights, Erceg’s lone stoppage came by knocking out Matt Schnell despite his submission background. He’s incredibly durable, so if Osbourne does get the jump on him early on, Erceg can hold it together and wait for Osbourne to tire and be victimized by his grappling.

I am not wholly convinced that wins Erceg by submission despite the opportunity presenting itself, but the skill gap between Osbourne and himself could allow it to happen. My best bet for the fight is that Erceg wins by either submission or decision.

Steve Erceg vs Ode’ Osbourne odds

Method of Victory	Erceg	Osbourne
To win outright	-550	+450
To win by KO/TKO	+295	+900
To win by decision	+195	+1100
To win by submission	+155	+3300
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 8-9.

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Steve Erceg vs Ode’ Osbourne tale of the tape

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