Fight Night Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivak Picks and Predictions: Bon Gamin Keeps Takedowns at Bay

Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak is set to be the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, September 2.

This will prove to be an intriguing bout between Top-10 heavyweights with Gane trying to work his way back to another title shot and Spivak looking to build on a three-fight winning streak. UFC betting lines opened with Gane as a -200 favorite but money has come in on Spivak, and that line has shortened to about -170.

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivak picks and predictions, from the Accor Arena in Paris on September 2.

Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivak fight odds

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Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivak method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 30, 2023.

Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivak picks

• Prediction: Gane ML (-166)
• Best bet: Gane ML (-166)

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivak betting preview

Ciryl Gane began his MMA career with 10 consecutive victories, including seven in a row inside the octagon. That earned him a heavyweight title shot against Francis Ngannou last summer, but he came up short in a decision loss. Gane had a 63-43 edge in significant strikes during that bout but was taken down four times and controlled for more than eight minutes on the mat despite Ngannou's reputation as a one-dimensional power-puncher. 

He bounced back from that defeat with a knockout victory against Tai Tuivasa, but when he earned a second title shot things went even worse with Jon Jones submitting him within two minutes. 

Gane excelled in kickboxing and Muay Thai before entering MMA, but he'll need to improve his defensive wrestling if he ever wants to become a UFC champ. However, he's a physical specimen with the best lateral movement and technical striking ability in the division. 

Sergey Spivak is the No. 7-ranked heavyweight contender and is coming off a first-round submission win against Derrick Lewis in February, which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. The "Polar Bear" is 6-1 in his last seven UFC fights with his only defeat during that span coming against current No. 4 contender Tom Aspinall. 

Spivak is a well-rounded heavyweight who has racked up an incredible 15 takedowns in his last three fights despite less than 14 total minutes of fight time in those bouts. The 28-year-old is at his best in the clinch and on the mat, where he can use his grappling ability to pull off submissions or win via ground-and-pound.

Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivak tale of the tape

Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivak UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Gane ML

It's easy to see why the market is moving towards Spivak given that he's a wrestling specialist and that defensive wrestling is Gane's kryptonite. However, it's important not to overlook how important size, strength, and athleticism are to grappling success. Look at the recent Rafael dos Anjos vs. Vicente Luque, and Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland fights where the technically superior grapplers couldn't implement their wrestling.

Ngannou might not have great grappling credentials but he is massive and incredibly strong while Jones is not only a freak athlete but is also a high-end wrestler. While Jones and Ngannou have similar physical attributes to Gane, the plodding Spivak doesn't.

In addition, Gane had to respect their standup games, while he can focus more on avoiding Spivak's takedowns. Spivak is relentless with his attempts but he doesn't have the best entries and he tends to use trips and sweeps to get his opponents to the mat.

Spivak will need to close the distance if he wants to implement that game plan, but even close quarters will be tough with Gane's Muay Thai background. Gane's elbows and knees will create space when Spivak manages to close the gap, while his footwork and distance striking will give Spivak problems on the outside.

If this Fight Night was taking place in the smaller Apex octagon, it would be easier for Spivac to get his wrestling going, but at Accor Arena, Gane should be able to stick and move on his way to a victory.

Prediction: Gane moneyline (-166 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Gane ML 

While Gane's lowest method to win odds are by KO/TKO (+100), he hasn't always displayed a killer instinct in his fights. He might try to avoid Spivak's wrestling by staying on the outside and striking at range, and playing it safe could lead to a decision victory as well.

I'll avoid Gane's knockout prop and will also play it safe by simply backing him on the moneyline.

Pick: Gane moneyline (-166 at DraftKings) 

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