Rafa Garcia and Alexander Hernandez aim to bring the pain in a lightweight clash that could end up being the fight of the night when these two face off on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard.
The UFC odds have the streaking Hernandez as a -130, while Garcia is a +105 underdog. Hernandez seems to be hitting his stride, and he’ll need to avoid the relentless grappling and aggression from Garcia to keep his streak alive.
Here are my best Garcia vs. Hernandez predictions for Saturday, April 25.
Garcia vs Hernandez fight prediction: Hernandez moneyline (-130)
After momentum-stalling losses, Hernandez has rebounded with four straight wins, including back-to-back knockouts. Garcia is durable but hittable and struggled even against an injured Jared Gordon.
Hernandez’s in-and-out movement and power give him a clear edge on the feet, as long as he avoids extended grappling exchanges where Garcia can slow things down. If he keeps it standing, Hernandez should dictate the fight.
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Garcia vs Hernandez best bet: Hernandez to win by decision (+155)
Hernandez is dangerous early, but Garcia’s durability should allow him to weather the initial storm. Outside of Grant Dawson’s dominant grappling win, Garcia has proven difficult to finish, especially on the feet.
Hernandez may have to grind towards a late stoppage, but my best bet is that he wins on the scorecards.
COVERS INTEL: Hernandez's current four-fight win streak is his longest and only the second win streak of his UFC career. Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Garcia | Hernandez |
| To win outright | +105 | -130 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1000 | +350 |
| To win by decision | +210 | +155 |
| To win by submission | +640 | +3000 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 -230 |
Under 2.5 +175 |
Odds as of 4-25.
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Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez tale of the tape
| Garcia | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot7 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 18-4-0 | Record | 18-8-0 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 8 |
| 8 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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