Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland is the main event for UFC Fight night betting on March 20 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
While last weekend's main event was a massive disappointment, this should be a very entertaining fight between a fast-rising middleweight contender in Kevin Holland and a formidable gatekeeper in Brunson.
UFC betting lines opened with Holland as a slim +100 underdog, but he’s now the -172 favorite while Brunson comes back at +140.
We bring you our best free Brunson vs. Holland picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, March 20.
Brunson vs Holland odds
| Method of Victory | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Outright | +140 | -172 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +380 | +160 |
| Win by Points | +380 | +340 |
| Win by Submission | +1,800 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Brunson vs Holland betting preview
Derek Brunson comes into this fight as the No. 7-ranked contender in the middleweight division and is fresh off an upset win over phenom Edmen Shahbazyan. Brunson entered that bout as a +225 underdog but overpowered the younger fighter, picking up the TKO win via ground-and-pound at the start of the third round.
The 37-year-old has enjoyed a lengthy career in MMA, going 21-7—including 12-5 since entering the UFC. He has reeled off three wins in a row since changing camps to Sanford MMA and training under Henri Hooft. He is a well-rounded fighter that combines excellent wrestling with knockout power on his feet.
Most people around the world didn't have the best of years in 2020 but Kevin "Trailblazer" Holland was an exception. The 28-year-old went 5-0 during the calendar year with four wins via KO/TKO and three Performance of the Night Bonuses.
Holland is now No. 10 in the middleweight rankings and is 21-5 in his career, with 16 wins coming by finish. He's a long and athletic fighter with creative striking and explosive power. However, he's also an excellent scrambler and capable grappler with six submission wins in his career.
Brunson vs Holland tale of the tape
| Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 186 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 77 inches | Reach | 81 inches |
| 21-7 (12 KO) | Record | 21-5 (11 KO) |
Brunson vs Holland UFC prediction and betting pick
PREDICTION: Kevin Holland (-172) - When I described Brunson as a gatekeeper I meant that as a compliment. He's the perfect guy to test up-and-coming hyped fighters. Either they get derailed by Brunson or they defeat him and move on to become the division's upper echelon like Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, and Yoel Romero.
You know exactly what you're getting with Brunson: Heavy hands, powerful takedowns, and nasty ground-and-pound. On the other hand, Holland can be a bit wild and shows lots of different looks on his feet and on the ground. That can be highly entertaining for fans but it also makes him a tricky fighter for opponents to get a handle on.
Holland's diverse skillset, unpredictability, striking accuracy, and four-inch reach advantage will pose problems for the older fighter. Expect Holland's star to keep rising with a win on Saturday.
PREDICTION: Holland to win by KO/TKO (+160) - Other than losses to those previously mentioned elite fighters, two other defeats stand out for Brunson: A pair of first-round knockouts at the hands of Jacare Souza in 2012 and 2018. Brunson is an offensive wrestler that typically does a good job of closing distance with his opponents but he can get caught when pressuring and five of his losses have come by KO/TKO.
Holland's last fight happened to be a first-round TKO win over Souza, where Trailblazer showed just how dangerous he can be off his back. Four of his last five wins have come by knockout and he also won the Xtreme Knockout welterweight championship in 2017 by finishing his opponent with strikes.
Why am I bringing up a fight from four years ago from a small Texas promotion? Well, the guy he knocked out for the title was Geoff "Handz of Steel" Neal, who is currently the No. 11 ranked welterweight in the UFC.
PREDICTION: Total Rounds Under 2.5 (-112) - Brunson might come from a wrestling background but he's not one of those boring fighters that tries to grind out decisions. He likes to take the offensive and nine of his last 13 bouts ended within the first round.
Holland is also an aggressive finisher with three of his last five wins coming by first-round stoppage. Regardless of who wins this fight, it won't last long.
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