Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott headlines Saturday's UFC Fight Night at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Buckley looks to snap a two-fight losing streak against hometown favorite Malott, who has won four straight to climb the welterweight rankings.
Check out my Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott predictions, the latest UFC odds, and free betting picks for Saturday's middleweight showdown.
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Joaquin Buckley | 48% |
| Top pick: Method of Finish - KO/TKO/DQ | 51% |
| Prop: Buckley to win by KO/TKO | 34% |
| Combo | 1.92x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Who will win Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott: Joaquin Buckley (48% Probability)
Joaquin Buckley is my pick.
His six-fight winning streak came crashing down against Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady, who exploited his defensive wrestling and spent prolonged stretches controlling him on the mat.
Those losses exposed a serious limitation in Buckley's game, but Mike Malott isn't nearly as much of a wrestler as those two. Malott has won four straight, though his recent victories haven't convinced me that he's ready for someone with Buckley's explosiveness and punching power.
If this becomes the striking battle I expect, Buckley should have the advantage.
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott top pick: Method of Finish - KO/TKO/DQ (51% Probability)
The fight ending with a KO/TKO/DQ is my top pick.
Buckley has the athleticism, explosiveness, and power to make Malott pay for engaging him on the feet, where I expect most of this fight to take place. Malott is a capable striker, and Buckley is a considerably more dangerous puncher.
Without the constant threat of elite wrestling forcing Buckley onto the defensive, this will be a slugfest until someone breaks.
COVERS INTEL: Buckley has scored 15 knockouts in 21 professional victories, while Malott's two career losses have come by KO/TKO.Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott prop: Buckley to win by KO/TKO (34% Probability)
Buckley by KO/TKO is my preferred prop.
Malott's four-fight winning streak looks impressive on paper, but he hasn't faced an explosive striker like Buckley since his loss to Magny. Buckley may have been thoroughly outclassed by Usman and Brady, but neither loss came because he couldn't compete on the feet.
Malott lacks the wrestling credentials to consistently exploit the same weakness, and I expect Buckley to make the most of his freedom to strike and eventually put the Canadian away.
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott combo
I expect Buckley's superior explosiveness and punching power to make the difference in the striking exchanges. Malott has been stopped before, and if Buckley can keep this fight on the feet, I expect him to break down the Canadian and score a knockout before the fifth round.
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Joaquin Buckley | Mike Malott |
| To win outright | 48% | 57% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 34% | 21% |
| To win by decision | 15% | 26% |
| To win by submission | 3% | 13% |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 48% |
Under 2.5 85% |
Odds as of 10-16.
Malott enters as a modest favorite, with Buckley at 48% to pull off the upset. The market favors a stoppage, which supports my preference for the fight ending inside the distance.
Malott lacks Usman and Brady's credentials to consistently impose the kind of game plan needed to beat Buckley. If this becomes a striking battle, Buckley's explosiveness and punching power make him an appealing underdog, particularly by knockout.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60.
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott tale of the tape
| Joaquin Buckley | Mike Malott | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 34 |
| 5’10” | Height | 6’1” |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 76” | Reach | 73” |
| 21-8 | Record | 14-2-1 |
| 15 | Wins by KO | 6 |
| 0 | Wins by submission | 6 |
Malott stands three inches taller than Buckley, but Buckley owns a three-inch reach advantage and is two years younger. The difference in finishing records is telling: Buckley has 15 knockouts in 21 wins, while Malott splits his 12 finishes evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
