The co-main event of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas features a lightweight bout between up-and-comer Matheus Camilo and 38-year-old veteran Jai Herbert.
Camilo is the 65% favorite, and my Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert predictions call for the Brazilian to earn a second straight knockout victory.
Keep reading for the latest UFC odds and my free picks for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, Oct. 10.
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Matheus Camilo | 65% |
| Fight ends before Round 3 | 56% |
| Camilo by KO/TKO/DQ | 37% |
| Combo | 2.86x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert: Matheus Camilo (65% Probability)
Make no mistake — Saturday’s co-main event is meant to be a showcase for the 25-year-old Camilo to add another win to his UFC resume.
The Brazilian had a rocky start to his UFC career with a submission loss to Gabe Green, but he enters this bout on a two-fight win streak, most recently earning a first-round KO over Nazim Sadykhov.
Fighting out of Xtreme Couture, one of the top MMA gyms in the world, Camilo is well-rounded with knockout power on the feet as well as strong wrestling, averaging 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Herbert has plenty of experience against high-quality opponents, but at 38, he won’t be able to keep up with Camilo’s arsenal of attacks.
COVERS INTEL: Matheus Camilo’s takedown accuracy is 53% — on par with former lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Meanwhile, Kai Herbert’s takedown defense is highly suspect at just 66%.Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert top pick: Fight ends before Round 3 (56% Probability)
Both men have a penchant for early finishes, with nine of Camilo’s 13 professional bouts ending before the final round, and 13 of Herbert’s 21 fights also following that trend.
Camilo flashed one-punch knockout power in his last bout, where he essentially put Sadykhov out with his first strike of the fight. Herbert still has power in his hands too, as evidenced by his KO win against Mandel Nallo in April.
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert prop: Camilo by KO/TKO/DQ (37% Probability)
Herbert was getting pieced up and even knocked down by Nallo in his last bout before eventually finding a KO of his own, but it’s clear that the 38-year-old is definitely slowing down and somewhat chinny.
Camilo needed just four strikes to seal his knockout win over Sadykhov, an excellent striker with only two KO losses in 15 fights.
Herbert is a very hittable target, and Camilo doesn’t need much to put people out. I think the Brazilian finds the finish again in this fight.
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert combo
I’m backing Camilo to find a knockout within the first two rounds, combining his power with a matchup against a hittable veteran. Herbert showed vulnerability against Nallo, while Camilo’s quick finish of Sadykhov highlights how little time he needs to land a decisive strike.
Combining Camilo by KO/TKO/DQ with the fight ending before Round 3 offers a slightly higher potential payout than either selection alone.
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Matheus Camilo | Jai Herbert |
| To win outright | 65% | 36% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 37% | 17% |
| To win by decision | 21% | 21% |
| To win by submission | 8% | 6% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 42% |
No 84% |
Odds as of 10-8.
Camilo’s most likely path to victory is by knockout (37%), but interestingly, oddsmakers are giving both fighters an equal chance if it goes to a decision (21%). The fight ending inside the distance is heavily favored at 84%.
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Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert tale of the tape
| Matheus Camilo | Jai Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Age | 38 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 11-3 | Record | 14-6-1 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 10 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Herbert will enjoy a sizable three-inch height advantage as well as a massive eight-inch reach advantage. Camilo benefits by being 13 years younger than his counterpart.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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