Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza prediction takes center stage on Saturday's UFC Fight Night main card at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas.
The eighth-ranked Godinez looks to continue her climb through the strawweight division against Souza, whose power and aggressive striking present another dangerous test.
Godinez enters as the clear favorite, with her wrestling providing a potential path to controlling the matchup.
Check out the latest UFC odds and free picks for Saturday's showdown.
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Loopy Godinez | 71% |
| Top pick: Method of finish - Decision | 65% |
| Prop: Godinez to win by decision | 51% |
| Combo: Godinez + Method of finish: Decision | 66% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza: Godinez (71% Probability)
Godinez is my pick, albeit cautiously. She's the better wrestler, the more complete striker, and has consistently faced a higher level of opposition. The concern is her habit of making fights more difficult than necessary.
Souza has defended just 53% of takedown attempts, so if Godinez attacks that weakness instead of settling into an extended striking battle, she should have a clear path to victory.
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza top pick: Method of finish - Decision (65% Probability)
The fight ending by decision is my top pick. If Godinez fights intelligently, her wrestling should allow her to dictate where much of this matchup takes place. She also defends 62% of the strikes coming back, giving her another edge when the fight stays upright. Souza has enough power to keep Godinez honest, but the favorite has more ways to bank rounds.
Assuming Godinez follows the obvious path, this should become a fight about accumulating control and minutes rather than chasing a finish.
COVERS INTEL: Godinez averages 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Souza has defended just 53% of the takedowns attempted against her.Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza prop: Godinez to win by decision (51% Probability)
Godinez by decision is my preferred prop. Souza's shaky takedown defense gives Godinez an obvious route to control, while Godinez's striking defense should help her win enough of the exchanges on the feet.
She may make this more competitive than it needs to be, but I'm betting on Godinez to consistently find the safer path and separate herself on the scorecards.
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza combo
Souza has struggled to defend takedowns, and Godinez should have plenty of opportunities to put her on the canvas and control extended stretches of the fight. Even if Godinez makes things unnecessarily competitive on the feet, her superior striking defense and wrestling give her multiple ways to win rounds.
Souza's power remains the biggest threat, but if Godinez avoids prolonged exchanges and consistently mixes in her wrestling, I expect her to do enough right to earn a comfortable decision.
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Loopy Godinez | Ketlen Souza |
| To win outright | 71% | 35% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 18% | 11% |
| To win by decision | 51% | 19% |
| To win by submission | 15% | 9% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 75% |
No 36% |
Odds as of Oct. 9.
Godinez is a clear 71% favorite, and the method-of-victory market strongly favors her winning on the scorecards, with Godinez by decision carrying a 51% probability. Souza's 19% decision probability also exceeds either of her finishing methods.
With the fight going the distance priced at 75%, the market largely agrees that Godinez's most likely path is to use her broader skill set to win rounds rather than chase a finish.
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Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza tale of the tape
| Loopy Godinez | Ketlen Souza | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-2 | Height | 5-foot-3 |
| Strawweight | Weight Class | Strawweight |
| 61 inches | Reach | 63 inches |
| 14-6 | Record | 17-6 |
| 1 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Souza owns modest physical advantages with an extra inch of height and two inches of reach, while her nine career knockouts give her considerably more finishing power.
Godinez, however, brings the more proven wrestling game and has consistently faced stronger competition. Those contrasting strengths make Godinez's ability to dictate where the fight takes place especially important.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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