Jailton Almeida brings his relentless grappling into a heavyweight showdown against the aggressive and efficient Rizvan Kuniev as part of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard.
Almeida is coming in on short notice and is the UFC odds favorite at -170, while Kuniev is a +135 underdog. My Almeida vs. Kuniev predictions and free betting picks believe the latter can get one step closer to a heavyweight title shot in Las Vegas in what should be a lengthy bout.
Almeida vs Kuniev prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Kuniev moneyline (+135 at BET99)
- My best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-140 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Jailton Almeida and Rizvan Kuniev are both coming off losses in fights where a legitimate argument can be made that they deserved the nod.
Almeida’s fight against Alexander Volkov perfectly encapsulated both his greatest strength and his biggest flaw. He landed seven takedowns and accumulated over 11 minutes of control time, yet his lack of urgency and offensive output left the door open for a controversial decision.
Almeida may be the most dominant pure wrestler in the division. He closes the distance quickly, drags fights to the mat, and is relentless when it comes to submissions and positional control.
The issue is that he often becomes content with control alone, and someone needs to tell him that striking is not optional in a professional MMA bout.
Kuniev enters as the superior striker and is physically strong enough to resist takedowns for stretches, but he has to make those moments count. Curtis Blaydes, one of the division’s better wrestlers, struggled to get Kuniev to the mat last time out and was worked over by Kuniev’s accurate strikes.
If he can delay Almeida’s takedowns and force extended striking sequences, Kuniev's heavier hands and deceptive speed could allow him to steal rounds.
It feels inevitable that Kuniev hits the mat at some point, but we’ve seen enough to suggest he can make things difficult before that happens. Almeida is stepping in on short notice to replace Ryan Spann, and there’s little reason to believe he’ll deviate from his usual approach of hunting takedowns and banking control time.
Kuniev may simply be the better-prepared fighter here, and if he can stay upright long enough, his striking could be the difference in a three-round fight.
Best bet analysis
Even if Almeida controls portions of the fight, Kuniev’s ability to survive early grappling exchanges point toward a longer bout. I can see Kuniev staying off the mat until later in the fight, so my best bet is that it goes Over 1.5 rounds.
Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Almeida | Kuniev |
| To win outright | -160 | +130 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +350 | +305 |
| To win by decision | +500 | +405 |
| To win by submission | +215 | +2100 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 2-7.
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Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev tale of the tape
| Almeida | Kuniev | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| Heavyweight | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 79 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 22-4 | Record | 12-3-1 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 6 |
| 13 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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