UFC Fight Night Ikram Aliskerov vs Antonio Trocoli Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Trocoli in Too Tough

Antonio Trocoli is serving as a substitute opponent in his first fight in over two years, and that's music to the ears of Ikram Aliskerov. Our UFC betting picks expect Aliskerov to make quick work of his rusty opponent.

Danny Howard - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Danny Howard • Betting Analyst
Jun 13, 2024 • 10:48 ET • 4 min read
Ikram Aliskerov UFC Fight Night
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Antonio Trocoli is the co-main event on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card and one of our featured events for UFC betting.

Aliskerov is building momentum and is shaping into a formidable fighter at middleweight, and he’s expected to continue his crushing path toward the Top 10 against late sub Trocoli.

UFC odds have Aliskerov a massive -1,300 favorite, with Trocoli a +700 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Aliskerov vs. Trocoli predictions from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Aliskerov vs Trocoli prediction and pick

Fight analysis

With Andre Muniz pulling out, Aliskerov still gets a chance to put on an impressive performance against the tough but limited Trocoli in the co-main event.

It has been three years since Trocoli last stepped foot in an MMA contest due to serving suspensions for PED-related offenses, and he's not getting an easy fight as Aliskerov has the makings of a division boogeyman. These two are primarily grapplers, but Aliskerov has been flashing his striking skills in his most recent performances.

It'll be interesting to see what approach Aliskerov takes, as Trocoli has an 82-inch reach and throws stiff strikes at a distance few can effectively counter from. That might be the only advantage Trocoli has because if he can't keep Aliskerov at the end of his reach and allow him to get inside, he is going to have a difficult time fighting him off before he gets taken to the mat.

Aliskerov keeps his hands high and has been throwing punches in bunches, landing 8.24 significant strikes per minute at 65% accuracy, as well as landing 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes, being an absolute terror when he gets his opponents on the mat.

Trocoli does everything Aliskerov does, just not as well. He'll get outworked in the striking exchanges, and he won't be able to get off the mat if he gets in a bad position. His best chance of winning comes from scoring a knockdown on the outside and getting to Aliskerov on the ground, which is possible as Aliskerov is hittable, but he's overmatched in every major category for this one.

Aliskerov is the pick.

Best best analysis

It is very difficult to imagine Trocoli delivering essentially what would amount to a boxing clinic by successfully keeping Aliskerov on the outside for three rounds. I have a hard enough time seeing this fight go two minutes before Aliskerov starts opening up on Trocoli and doing damage. Trocoli hasn't fought in over two years, and while he's not necessarily getting off the couch for this one, he's woefully overmatched.

Aliskerov might not have had any less trouble against Muniz, but Trocoli won't be able to shake off the rust and gather his wits once Aliskerov gets inside him and runs him through. I like Aliskerov to score his third straight first-round finish.

Ikram Aliskerov vs Antonio Trocoli odds

Method of Victory Aliskerov Trocoli
To win outright -1,250 +700
To win by KO/TKO -145 +2,500
To win by points +725 +1,450
To win by submission +205 +1,900
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds as of 6-13.

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Ikram Aliskerov vs Antonio Trocoli tale of the tape

Aliskerov   Trocoli
31 Age 33
6-foot Height 6-foot-5
185 pounds Weight 185 pounds
76 inches Reach 82 inches
15-1 (6 KO) Record 12-3 (1 NC, 3 KO)

Not intended for use in MA.
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