The co-main event of the first UFC Fight Night of the year is the high-octane Amir Albazi going up against the efficient machine that is Kyoji Horiguchi.
Horiguchi is the UFC odds favorite at -370, while Albazi is a +270 underdog.
My Albazi vs. Horiguchi predictions and free betting picks expect an exciting fight where the Japanese import makes a statement as he aims to climb the flyweight ladder in the Meta APEX.
Albazi vs Horiguchi prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Horiguchi moneyline (-370 at BET99)
- My best bet: Horiguchi by decision (-125 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Kyoji Horiguchi is looking to make the most of his second UFC run, and a win over the relentless Amir Albazi would firmly establish him as a serious player in the flyweight division.
Horiguchi’s career arc remains one of MMA’s great what-ifs. Since leaving the UFC in 2016, the Japanese standout has only refined his game, and his recent dismantling of Tagir Ulanbekov showed just how complete he still is.
Horiguchi doesn’t take unnecessary risks, but he stays active and efficient, and his ability to blend striking with takedowns allows him to dictate where fights take place. He’s comfortable winning rounds methodically, whether the fight plays out on the feet or along the mat.
Albazi enters this bout off a lopsided loss to Brandon Moreno, a fight where his pressure-heavy style backfired when he couldn’t establish his grappling.
While Albazi is a step above Ulanbekov in overall toughness and experience, he shares similar issues when he can’t establish his wrestling. Like most pressure-based grapplers, he doesn’t fight well going backward, and his conservative striking limits his ability to open opponents up.
With a pedestrian 50% takedown defense, Albazi will need to dramatically raise his output or find a way to force clinches to have success.
Horiguchi holds advantages everywhere. He’s the cleaner striker, the better defensive wrestler, and the more adaptable fighter overall.
Best bet analysis
While both fighters lean on grappling, neither is reckless, and Albazi has shown he can survive sustained punishment over three rounds.
With Horiguchi likely prioritizing control and efficiency over risk, a finish feels unlikely. My best bet is Horiguchi to win by dominant decision.
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Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Albazi | Horiguchi |
| To win outright | +265 | -360 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1650 | +525 |
| To win by decision | +510 | -125 |
| To win by submission | +1150 | +475 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 2-7.
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Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi tale of the tape
| Albazi | Horiguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 68 inches | Reach | 66 inches |
| 17-2 | Record | 35-5 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 15 |
| 9 | Wins by submission | 6 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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