UFC 284 gets underway this Saturday at RAC Arena in Australia, featuring a deep lineup with two title fights on tap.
On the main card, there is an exciting heavyweight bout set to take place between Parker Porter and Justin Tafa. UFC odds have Tafa priced as a slight –125 favorite, while Porter comes back at +102.
Will Tafa take care of business as short betting chalk, or can Porter get back in the win column with an upset victory? Find out in our free Porter vs. Tafa picks and predictions for UFC 284.
Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter fight odds
Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Justin Tafa | Parker Porter |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +170 | +420 |
| To win by Points | +400 | +360 |
| To win by Submission | +1,800 | +600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 9, 2023.
Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter betting preview
Neither one of these heavyweights possesses the best track record since joining the UFC. Justin Tafa is just 2-3, with two knockout victories, two decision losses, and one knockout defeat.
Meanwhile, Parker Porter is 3-2 with three decision victories and two inside-the-distance losses. With that said, I would argue that Porter’s resume is more impressive.
Porter's two losses (while inside the distance), came at the hands of two ranked heavyweights in Jailton Almeida and Chris Daukaus. While none of his wins are against ranked opponents, neither are any of Tafa’s victories.
Both of these guys love to stand and bang, so we shouldn't expect to see too much grappling between these two strikers.
Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter tale of the tape
| Justin Tafa | Parker Porter | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 37 |
| 6-feet | Height | 6-feet |
| 267 lbs | Weight | 265 lbs |
| 74 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 5-3 (5 KO) | Record | 12-7 (5 KO) |
Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Porter by decision
Neither Tafa nor Porter have produced fantastic resumes in the UFC, although the fact that Porter’s two losses have come against better fighters is the main reason that this line keeps moving closer to a pick'em. In a fight that should stay standing, Porter possesses a slight advantage in the striking department.
Landing 6.49 strikes per minute since joining the UFC, Porter outclasses Tafa in this department by over 1.4 more strikes landed per minute. At the same time, Porter’s striking defense outweighs Tafa’s by 3%.
The two biggest advantages Tafa possesses are his age (more than eight years younger than Porter) as well as his power. Tafa can starch anyone at any time, which is a capability that I'm not sure Porter can match and is the most likely reason Tafa opened as the betting favorite.
However, if Tafa does not finish Porter, can he win the fight? Both of his wins in the UFC are via knockout, but Porter has proven to have a strong chin as he previously survived a ton of shots from both Chase Sherman and Josh Parisian.
Additionally, there is the aspect that Porter could bring this fight to the mat. While both guys prefer to strike, Porter would be far more comfortable than Tafa in the grappling department, which provides an interesting wrinkle if he were to go that route.
Prediction: Porter by decision (+360 at FanDuel)
Fight best bet: Porter ML
While I think it is most likely that Porter wins via decision, there is enough value to take him at plus money on the moneyline. We have to remember that these are two big heavyweights, meaning any shot could end the fight in the blink of an eye.
Porter should out-class Tafa in the striking department and perhaps switch things up and implement some grappling, so taking Porter via decision is an unnecessary risk when you can just take him to win outright. Another reason why Tafa likely opened as the betting favorite is that he's fighting out of Australia and will have this crowd in his favor against the American.
While that will undoubtedly play to Tafa's advantage, it is not enough to overlook the fact that Porter is a higher-volume striker that is better defensively and can take the fight in numerous different directions.
With Porter’s more impressive resume, give me the underdog in this fight.
Pick: Porter moneyline (+102 at Barstool Sportsbook)
