Local representative Nazim “Black Wolf” Sadykhov will look to excite the home town crowd when he squares off against Brazil’s Matheus Camilo in the featured bout of UFC Fight Night Baku on Saturday.
Sadykhov saw his 12-fight unbeaten streak snapped in his most recent outing when he was soundly beaten by Fares Ziam back in December. A native of Azerbaijan, the UFC is giving him an excellent opportunity to jump back in the win column in front of his fellow countrymen.
Standing in his way is 25 year old Brazilian Matheus Camilo, who just notched his first official UFC victory last November when he won a debatable decision over journeyman Viacheslav Borshchev.
UFC odds have Sadykhov as a firm -230 betting favorite on the moneyline, and I’m backing him as well as the official play in my Sadykhov vs. Camilo predictions & free betting picks for June 27.
Who will win Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo: Sadykhov moneyline (-230)
A longtime training partner of former UFC champions Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili, Sadykhov has a very well-rounded game himself, often blending together his striking with a mix of takedowns and ground attack. That constant offense should serve him well here, as he’s fighting in front of a home crowd that will be scoring damage over control time.
Camilo so far has not shown much outside of some takedowns and ground control. He’s not finished an opponent in nearly three years, and instead tries to just hold on and kill off the clock. In his latest outing, he was out-struck soundly in two of the rounds versus the aforementioned Borschev, but still somehow came away with the decision based on going 5/10 on takedown attempts.
That’s not gonna cut it here. Camilo can try to hold him down all he wants, but in front of a raucous pro-Azerbaijani crowd, they are gonna favor the man doing the damage, and that will be Nazim Sadykhov.
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Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo best bet: Sadykhov Wins by Decision (+240)
Despite being an alleged grappling threat, all three of Matheus Camilo’s losses are actually by way of submission. He doesn’t spend much time striking at range, and has never been knocked out as a result. This type of style is going to lead to a decision in all likelihood, and although the over 2.5 total rounds at (+125) is also very appealing, I decided to chase a bit more value and take Sadykhov by decision at (+240).
The best path to finishing Camilo has proven to be by submission, but the 32-year-old Sadykhov only has two career wins by tapout and hasn’t submitted an opponent in nearly three years. Sadykhov does have some decent punching power, but with Camilo having never been knocked out, there’s no reason for me to believe he won’t be able to take the few shots that get through.
I expect long periods of grappling that will ultimately kill the clock. At that point, trust the judges to get it right and award the local favorite Sadykhov the decision win.
COVERS INTEL: Nazim Sadykhov is undefeated when competing in Azerbaijan.Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Nazim Sadykhov | Matheus Camilo |
| To win outright | -190 | +150 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +200 | +400 |
| To win by decision | +260 | +540 |
| To win by submission | +675 | +975 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 +125 |
Under 2.5 -160 |
Odds as of 6-26.
The Sadykhov moneyline is already a bit too wide for my liking, considering I believe it’s headed to the judges' score cards, and I don't love the idea of having to trust them to get it right while holding a (-230) ticket.
I wouldn’t advise playing it any higher than its current price, but believe the Over 2.5 total rounds at (+125) and Sadykhov to win by decision at (+240) still hold great value and be willing to play those numbers up to (+100) and (+190) respectively.
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Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo tale of the tape
| Nazim Sadykhov | Matheus Camilo | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 25 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 11-2-1 | Record | 10-3 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 4 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 2 |
50-75 words of analysis... anything notable like height/reach advantages, past/recent fight results, have they fought before, etc?
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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