Former ranked contender Rafael Fiziev looks to re-establish himself among the division's elite, but first, he’ll have to get past dangerous power puncher Manuel Torres in the main event of UFC Fight Night Baku on Saturday in Azerbaijan.
After spending the last number of years mixing it up with the sport's elite fighters, Fiziev now finds himself in a 1-4 slump over his last five fights and is in desperate need of a victory.
His opponent, Manuel Torres, meanwhile, has proven to be a human hurricane, racking up a 5-1 record since signing with the UFC, with all five wins coming by way of first-round knockout.
Current UFC odds have this fight as a near pick 'em, with Torres being the slight -120 favorite; however, I’m going with Fiziev to put on a vintage performance and cash the win at -110 odds in my Fiziev vs. Torres predictions and free betting picks for June 27.
Who will win Manuel Torres vs Rafael Fiziev: Fiziev moneyline (-110)
Don't write off Rafael Fiziev. His recent losses came against elite competition like Justin Gaethje, Mateusz Gamrot, and Mauricio Ruffy. Facing Manuel Torres represents a welcome step down.
Experience is the deciding factor in this five-round main event. While Torres boasts lethal early power, he has only survived the first round once in 20 fights.
Expect Fiziev to weather the early storm, drag Torres into uncharted deep waters, and secure a spectacular home-crowd victory in Azerbaijan.
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Manuel Torres vs Rafael Fiziev best bet: Over 1.5 Total Rounds (-135)
Although Torres is a first-round finisher, Rafael Fiziev is a lot more methodical and won’t look to rush things early in this fight. 7 of his last 8 fights in the UFC have gone over 1.5 rounds, with the only one failing to hit that mark being due to a leg injury suffered 27 seconds short of the over 1.5 total rounds.
With potentially five rounds to work with, Fiziev knows he has lots of time to find a finish later on in the fight, while also being mindful that his opponent Torres is most dangerous early.
I expect him to stay defensive in the beginning before opening up and getting Torres out of there in the latter stages of the fight.
I am also taking some Fiziev by TKO at (+155), but as far as a “best bet” is concerned, I like the over 1.5 rounds at (-135) to cover us either way.
COVERS INTEL: Manuel Torres has never faced a top-15 ranked opponent in his career. Manuel Torres vs Rafael Fiziev odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Manuel Torres | Rafael Fiziev |
| To win outright | +110 | -120 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +135 | +155 |
| To win by decision | +1250 | +600 |
| To win by submission | +1050 | +1750 |
| Total rounds | Over 1.5 -145 |
Under 1.5 +115 |
Odds as of 6-25.
I’ve personally lined Fiziev closer to being a (-150) favorite, so getting him at the current -110 price tag feels like it holds some value. The over 1.5 total rounds at (-135), I would likewise also play up to around the (-150) range, but given Torres’ history of fights ending early, I wouldn’t recommend getting in if the line moves anywhere past the number.
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Manuel Torres vs Rafael Fiziev tale of the tape
| Manuel Torres | Rafael Fiziev | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 73 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 15-2 | Record | 13-5-0 |
| 10 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 4 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA.
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