The second semifinal of the night at the US Open is sure to be a captivating affair, pitting this year’s Wimbledon finalist against a four-time Grand Slam champion.
After beating Iga Swiatek in routine fashion, Amanda Anisimova looks as dangerous as ever and is just two wins away from lifting her first-ever major trophy in front of a home crowd. With Naomi Osaka looking like her old self, however, does she stand a chance?
Let’s break it all down in my Osaka vs. Anisimova predictions and betting picks for September 4.
Osaka vs Anisimova prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Anisimova moneyline (+100 at Fanatics)
- My best bet: First set Over 9.5 games (-120 at Fanatics)
Match analysis
While Naomi Osaka’s return to this stage has been the story of the tournament, it hasn’t necessarily meant she’s been the best player in the draw, as in years past; it’s been Anisimova who has looked the closest to the top tier of the tour.
The American took care of business against an experienced Beatriz Haddad-Maia and triumphed over Iga Swiatek — the same player who double-bageled her in the Wimbledon final last month. In doing so, she not only demonstrated considerable mental fortitude, but also her game.
Anisimova served brilliantly under pressure against Swiatek, but more impressively, she held her own amidst a flurry of quality groundstrokes. She wound up holding the World No. 2 to a shocking 33% of second serve points, hitting big returns deep into the court.
This is nothing like what Osaka faced in Karolina Muchova on Wednesday night. I’m a big fan of the Czech, but she couldn’t hold a candle to Osaka from the back of the court and was heavily reliant on the serve.
Osaka still managed to cough up her serve twice, saving five of break points in the match, and her 30:19 winner to unforced error count was good but not great.
Anisimova proved against Swiatek her gains on grass were real. She’s an elite player from the back of the court, and I’m not seeing enough out of Osaka to hold her in the same regard.
I think the question of who will win the majority of rallies in this match is quite easy, and Anisimova’s done enough on serve at this tournament to earn a vote of confidence.
Best best analysis
While I’m in full agreement Anisimova has overcome some mental hurdles, this is still a huge stage — and we saw her come out quite nervous against Swiatek when she dropped her opening service game.
Though she’d break right back, the set featured plenty of big break saves on both sides until one pressure point at 5-4 would ultimately hand the set to the American.
This will be a matchup between two power players, and as such, I think we’ll see plenty of games played between the two. In both meetings between Anisimova and Osaka on tour, the first set has gone Over 9.5 games, and I’m willing to bet on that happening again here.
Osaka vs Anisimova odds
| (23) Naomi Osaka | (8) Amanda Anisimova | |
|---|---|---|
| -120 | Moneyline | +100 |
| +0.5 (-140) | Game spread | -0.5 (+100) |
| Over 21.5 (-140) | Total games | Under 21.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
How to watch Osaka vs Anisimova
| Location | USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, NY |
| Date | ESPN, 9-4-2025 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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