No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz meet in their third consecutive Grand Slam final, and one of them is leaving Arthur Ashe Stadium as the World No. 1.
Alcaraz has breezed through the US Open field without dropping a set, but my Sinner vs. Alcaraz predictions expect Sinner to come out on top.
Sinner vs Alcaraz prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Sinner moneyline (-130 at Fanatics)
- My best bet: Sinner Over 21.5 games (+105 at Fanatics)
Match analysis
Tennis fans are in for a treat when Jannik Sinner meets Carlos Alcaraz in their third consecutive Grand Slam final.
Sinner has dropped only two sets en route to his fifth straight Slam final, surrendering just four service breaks while saving 27 break points.
His serve has been nearly impenetrable, but the Italian isn’t just a serve-bot. His return game has consistently troubled Alcaraz in past battles, and his laser-like groundstrokes give him a technical edge.
Alcaraz hasn’t lost a set and handled Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, but Sinner has faced the stiffer road, toppling four seeded players.
One point shy of a calendar Slam bid, Sinner’s 18-1 hard-court record and 3-1 mark in Slam finals over the last 12 months point to a successful title defense in New York.
Best best analysis
Across their last five meetings, the pair has played six tiebreakers, underscoring just how tight and competitive these matches can be.
Sinner has been nearly untouchable this fortnight, dropping only two sets, saving 27 break points, and holding serve with precision.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, is playing highly focused tennis and is fully capable of taking a set or even two with his aggressive returns and creative shot-making.
Fans have grown accustomed to extended rallies and high-stakes tiebreaks whenever these two meet, and this match is likely to go long enough for Sinner to clear this 21.5-game total.
Sinner vs Alcaraz odds
| (1) Jannik Sinner | (2) Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| -130 | Moneyline | +110 |
| -2.5 (+105) | Game spread | +2.5 (-155) |
| Over 40.5 (-140) | Total games | Under 40.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics.
How to watch Sinner vs Alcaraz
| Location | USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, NY |
| Date | Sunday, 9-7-2025 |
| Time | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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