Carlos Alcaraz has solved many riddles during his young career, but Novak Djokovic remains an unsolved one.
After two straight losses to the Serbian legend, my Djokovic vs. Alcaraz U.S. Open semifinal prediction calls for Alcaraz to finally get the last laugh in Friday’s blockbuster clash.
Join me as I break down the US Open odds and offer my free betting picks for Friday, September 5.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Carlos Alcaraz 3-1 set score (+256 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- My best bet: Carlos Alcaraz moneyline & Over 37.5 games (+160 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Match analysis
Carlos Alcaraz is a man on a mission.
The Cincinnati Open champ hopes to wrestle the top spot in the rankings away from Jannik Sinner, and he would like nothing better than to avenge a pair of losses to former World No. 1 Novak Djokovic.
Alcaraz has dominated these Flushing Meadows courts behind a service game yielding only one service break and a perfect 15-0 set score ahead of his US Open semifinal with Djokovic.
Djokovic has looked haggard at times and has been broken eight times, which should have been more, as he fended off 11 of 13 break points against Taylor Fritz.
Fifty-seven aces have been Joker’s saving grace, but the Alcaraz return game and ability to turn defense into offense are the strongest he’ll have faced thus far.
Carlos is the fresher of the two; he’s playing lights out, and his overall game and bigger shots will prove too much for the legend to deal with.
Best best analysis
Alcaraz has played mind-blowing tennis this fortnight, but it isn’t a lock he’ll roll through Djokovic.
Sometimes Alcaraz goes full showman; drop shots falling short or forehands flying long, and Djokovic can, and has made the Spaniard pay for his flashiness.
While Djokovic chases major No. 25, Alcaraz looks to become the first man to sweep the U.S. Open without dropping a set, and the pressure is on young Carlitos.
Djokovic enters as the underdog, but he knows he can beat Alcaraz, and his serve has been a formidable weapon throughout the tournament.
We should expect Djokovic to steal a set or at least force a tiebreak, but Alcaraz’s fitness and shot-making will carry him across the line in four or five sets.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz odds
| (7) Novak Djokovic | (2) Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| +300 | Moneyline | -380 |
| +5.5 (-120) | Game spread | -5.5 (-120) |
| Over 38.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 38.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.
How to watch Djokovic vs Alcaraz
| Location | Arthur Ashe Stadium, New York, NY |
| Date | Friday, 9-5-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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