Amanda Anisimova is into her second straight Grand Slam final, and after solving the tournament favorite in the quarters, she’ll have to overcome World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka if she wants to hoist her first-ever major trophy.
After a mesmerizing performance against the World No. 2 and an excellent fight against four-time grand slam champion Naomi Osaka, it would seem the 24-year-old is ready to take the next step.
Let's break it down in my Sabalenka vs. Anisimova predictions and free betting picks for September 6.
Sabalenka vs Anisimova prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Anisimova (+170 at Fanatics)
- My best bet: Over 9.5 games — 1st Set (-120 at Fanatics)
Match analysis
It’s hard to get a read on Sabalenka right now after she received a walkover in the quarterfinal round and had to pull herself out of a deficit in Thursday’s semifinal after dropping the first set to Jessica Pegula.
While Pegula is certainly a good server, the third set was worrying for Sabalenka, who won just a handful of points against the American’s serve and saved four break points of her own. It was an escape, and one that likely happened on account of the confidence which the career head-to-head gave to Sabalenka.
This couldn’t be a different match, pitting Sabalenka against a fellow power player who’s gone 6-3 against the World No. 1 in her career. While they’ve been playing for six years, Anisimova has won two of the last three meetings — and all of those came in the last 13 months. It was Anisimova who ended Sabalenka’s run at Wimbledon in the semifinals, and now it’s the American who will stop her in the final of the next Grand Slam.
A player who can serve and hit as big as Anisimova is a matchup nightmare for the Belarusian, and to make matters worse, we’re seeing the best version of the American, who’s climbed into the world’s top five. She’s playing incredibly confident tennis, limiting the errors and dealing with pressure quite well. After taking down Iga Swiatek, the player who double-bageled her in the Wimbledon final, there’s no stopping this young woman.
Best best analysis
We called it last night – Sabalenka does not like the first set. She went 7-6 and 7-5 in the first set of her first two matches, respectively, and while she breezed through Christina Bucsa and Leylah Fernandez, those two hit softly and played defense, which opened things up for Sabalenka to get a foothold early.
We saw this at Wimbledon, where Sabalanka barely hung on in the first set of her second-and third-round matches, dropped the first in the quarters, and then lost the first to Anisimova in the semis. She’s a slow starter, and Anisimova shouldn’t let her off the hook if she’s able to grab a lead here early – something I see as highly likely.
We could play Anisimova on the game spread in the first set, but I’m a bigger fan of taking the over on games. It’s hit in each of the last three meetings between the two, and in all but one of Anisimova’s last five matches. With nerves sure to play a role here as well, I don’t see either player running away with this stanza.
Sabalenka vs Anisimova odds
| (1) Aryna Sabalenka | (8) Amanda Anisimova | |
|---|---|---|
| -220 | Moneyline | +180 |
| -3.5 (-120) | Game spread | +3.5 (-120) |
| Over 21.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 21.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics.
How to watch Sabalenka vs Anisimova
| Location | USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, NY |
| Date | Saturday, 9-6-2025 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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