World No. 1 Jannik Sinner seeks his fifth consecutive Grand Slam final when he meets No. 25 Felix Auger-Aliassime under the Friday Night lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium.
While the Canadian boasts a winning record over the Italian, my Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime predictions expect a comfortable win for the defending US Open champion.
Join me as I break down this US Open Men’s semifinal betting pick for Friday, September 5.
Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Jannik Sinner + Under 30.5 games (-115 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- My best bet: Under 28.5 games (+160 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Match analysis
Jannik Sinner seeks his fifth consecutive Grand Slam final, and I don’t expect No. 25 Felix Auger-Aliassime to halt the top-seeded Italian’s title defense.
Sinner has dominated the US Open field with the same big serve and punishing groundstrokes he delivered in a 6-0, 6-2 thrashing over the Canadian in Cincinnati, and I expect a similar outcome on Friday night.
Auger-Aliassime has pounded 69 aces, but he’s also been broken 11 times. Sinner has routinely punished the Canadian’s weaker second serve in the past, and I expect the World No. 1's laser-like returns to demoralize FAA.
The Italian is 27-2 on hard courts in the past year against the Top 50 in the world. His matches are 6-2-0 to the Under in his past eight games, and I expect him to win comfortably and quickly.
Best best analysis
You really have to feel for Felix Auger-Aliassime.
His run to the 2021 US Open final promised a lot, but injuries and confidence issues derailed that trajectory. Now he faces what Sasha Bublik calls an “AI-generated player,” and this match will likely be one-way traffic.
Auger-Aliassime beat Sinner early in their careers, but this version of Sinner has dominated the last three hard-court Slams and closes matches quickly.
In 10 of 13 sets this US Open, Sinner has surrendered three games or fewer, including a 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 thrashing of Bublik. FAA lacks the variety to challenge Sinner the way Carlos Alcaraz can, which is why he was bageled in Cincinnati.
Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime odds
| (1) Jannik Sinner | (25) Felix Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| -3500 | Moneyline | +1400 |
| -7.5 (-140) | Game spread | +7.5 (+100) |
| Over 30.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 30.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.
How to watch Sinner vs Auger-Aliassime
| Location | USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, NY |
| Date | Friday, 9-5-2025 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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