German No. 1 Alexander Zverev and Russian No. 1 Daniil Medvedev have one of the most prolonged and intense active rivalries on the ATP Tour.
They’ve met 18 times as professionals and will renew their rivalry Friday night under the bright lights of Rod Laver Arena, with the winner inching one step closer to his first Australian Open title.
Zverev has been playing great ball during the fortnight — he upset No. 2-seeded Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals and will look to improve upon his 7-11 career mark against his Russian rival.
Medvedev is a two-time finalist here and needed five hard-fought sets and a little bit of luck to defeat Poland No. 1 Hubert Hurcacz to reach his third Australian Open semifinal.
Join me as I break it all down with free betting picks for the Australian Open semifinal matchup between Zverev and Medvedev on Friday, January 26. Be sure to also check out our Australian Open odds page in addition to my Djokovic vs. Sinner picks.
Australian Open Men's Semifinal picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
Best Australian Open bonuses
All Users
No-sweat 3+ leg SGP every day
Bonus bets back if you don’t win! Claim Now
New Users
Bet $5 on any market
Get $158 in bonus bets! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev odds
| (3) Daniil Medvedev | (6) Alexander Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| -150 | Moneyline | +130 |
| -2.5 (+100) | Game spread | +2.5 (-120) |
| Over 41.5 (-105) | Total games | Under 41.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 24, 2024.
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev match prediction
Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev have competed against one another since their junior days. The rivalry has been intense and sometimes quite bitter. Their pro rivalry especially took off in 2023 when they met six times, with Medvedev besting his rival 5-1 last season.
In fairness, Zverev was coming off a horrific knee injury suffered during the 2022 French Open semis against Rafael Nadal. He admittedly wasn’t “right” until post-Wimbledon 2023, losing three of those meetings before Wimbledon and going 1-2 against him in the latter half.
Medvedev changed his positioning on the return of serve (more in a minute), leading to a 2021 US Open title and the second-most hardcourt victories in 2023. That removes any real edge the big-serving German may have and is why he’ll have trouble defeating the two-time Australian Open finalist.
The Russian No. 1 leads the tournament field in break points won and has fired the fifth-most aces down under. Med has dominated Zverev over the past year, and the German required three tough sets for his lone 2023 victory over his Russian rival.
Medvedev's recent success against Zverev will give him the additional confidence he needs to reach the final.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev moneyline (-154 at BetRivers)
Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev best bet
Zverev made a robotic-like 85% of his first serves with one double-fault in his four-set, upset victory over Carlos Alcaraz. It was a performance for the ages against one of the best players in the world and one he — and his fans — will cherish for a long time.
A couple of years back, Medvedev changed his court positioning on the service return. Typically, returners on hardcourts will stand 5-8 feet behind the baseline to return a first serve. He takes his initial position 12-15 feet behind the baseline, allowing additional time for him to hit a normal groundstroke rather than block the ball and hope for the best.
To counter this, a big server like Zverev will typically try swinging a serve wide on the deuce court or an off-speed kicker to the ad court. That strategy worked well to some degree against Medvedev on smaller stadium courts like the Cincinnati’s of the tennis world, but it won’t work the same way on the wide-open sidelines of Rod Laver Arena.
That will force Zverev to hit bigger to serve through his opponent which rarely worked in his three previous hardcourt matches with his semifinal opponent.
And while Zverev has played some great ball down under, no one on Earth frustrates Zverev’s service game like Medvedev does. The forecast is calling for breezy conditions — that won’t help the Zverev service game nor will the cooler evening air or the controversial tennis balls against one of the ATP Tours' top returners.
Their recent head-to-head history doesn’t lend much confidence in backing Zverev. I don’t believe he'll be able to overcome the Medvedev return game, or the Russians serve enough times to get Over this number.
Best bet: Alexander Zverev Under 20.5 games (-120 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
