Nowadays, the only important tennis records left to break for World No. 1 Novak Djokovic are his own.
Djoker will break a pair of his records when he makes his 48th Grand Slam semifinal and 11th semis appearance here at the Australian Open. His opponent? No. 4 seed Jannik Sinner.
Sinner flipped his quarterfinal match with Andrey Rublev on its head, coming back from a 1-5 deficit in the second set tiebreaker before topping the Russian in three sets. Sinner remains as the only player not to drop a set this tournament.
Can Sinner halt Djokovic from continuing his assault on his own records? Join me as I break this one down with my free betting picks for this AO semifinal matchup between Djokovic and Sinner. Be sure to also check out our Australian Open odds page for more analysis.
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Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner odds
| (1) Novak Djokovic | (4) Jannik Sinner | |
|---|---|---|
| -230 | Moneyline | +190 |
| -3.5 (-120) | Game spread | +3.5 (+100) |
| Over 40.5 (+100) | Total games | Under 40.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 23, 2024.
Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner match prediction
Djokovic is slightly more than a 2-1 favorite, and that’s probably right. He’s accomplished nearly everything there is to accomplish on a tennis court, including winning 10 consecutive semifinal appearances here in Melbourne.
He’s never lost a semi or final down under, but this year’s run has been different: He’s dropped a set in three of his five matches in over 15 hours of court time. He failed to convert 15 break points in the first two sets of his quarterfinal matchup against Taylor Fritz and needed nearly four hours to dispatch the big-serving American.
Sinner is playing phenomenal tennis right now. He’s breezed through this event without dropping a set and, despite having far less court time than the rest of the field, won the fourth-most break points thus far in Melbourne.
He’s 2-4 lifetime against Djokovic but has won two of their last three meetings, including a massive three-set Davis Cup victory. Beating Djokovic when he’s wearing the flag is no small feat and should give a supremely confident Sinner more than a puncher's chance at dethroning the champ.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner moneyline (+175 at Caesars)
Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner best bet
This match has all the makings for great theater. You have an aging champion who many regard as the greatest of all time, taking on a 22-year-old seeking his first major title who's fresh as a daisy.
Unlike some who have reacted in similar situations, Sinner doesn’t fear Djokovic. His Davis Cup victory over Djoker has given Sinner the confidence that has translated into what we’ve witnessed during this run for the stuffed Koala Bear. Sinner has played efficient tennis during this fortnight and — if their recent results indicate what is to come — we'll be in for a close contest between two lads who slap tennis balls with bad intentions.
The crowd has been against Djokovic throughout this event, and Sinner will have most of the support. The two gladiators have gone the distance in two of their last three, and Sinner was the only man to defeat Djoker twice in 2023. The young Italian hasn’t dropped a set during this event, and I believe we’ll see a highly competitive match going at least four sets.
Best bet: Over 19.5 games (+100 at DraftKings)
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