Novak Djokovic is a perfect 7-0 in Australian Open Finals, cementing his position as the greatest hard court player ever. While Dominic Thiem is playing in his third major final, but first on hard court, having lost back-to-back French Open finals to Rafael Nadal. The 26-year-old now faces another one of the ‘Big 3’, having knocked Nadal out of the tournament at the quarter-final stage.
Covers Experts’ Tennis Insiders dissect the Australian Open betting odds and gives their predictions, picks and best bets for Sunday’s final.
Novak Djokovic (-400) v Dominic Thiem (+300)
WHY TO BET DJOKOVIC
Djokovic is the best hard court player ever and the surface suits his game, the pace and the bounce fit his counter-punching style perfectly while the plexicushion surface used in Melbourne enhances his defensive capabilities.
Djokovic is yet to be tested in this tournament, dropping only one set. Raonic was an easy matchup in the quarter-finals while Federer entered the semi-finals having played two five setters and carrying a groin injury.
Djokovic hasn’t had to play anywhere close to his best tennis, the only question to be answered is can he raise his level with short notice? Medvedev almost caught him out in Melbourne last year.
WHY TO BET THIEM
Thiem’s hard court pedigree has been questioned for years with clay his preferred surface, reaching French Open finals in 2018 and 2019. The addition of Nicolas Massu to the coaching ticket last year has marked a significant improvement on quicker surfaces, winning an indoor title in Vienna before reaching the ATP World Tour final (also indoors).
Thiem had suffered some early exits in Melbourne and while he had to rally from a set down to beat local wildcard Alex Bolt in five, he gained the rhythm and confidence his game requires throughout the week, culminating in fantastic victories against Nadal and Zverev in the quarter and semi-finals. He’s won five tiebreaks in those two matches, displaying remarkable composure and shot making under intense pressure.
THE MATCHUP
Djokovic has the advantage of having played his semi-final a day earlier, while Thiem has spent seven hours and 44 minutes on court in the quarter/semi-finals compared to Djokovic’s four hours and 18 minutes. Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set since the opening round and couldn’t have wished for a less physically taxing route to a major final. Thiem has beaten Djokovic in a major twice, both wins coming at the French Open but perhaps his most impressive performance against the World No.1 came last November at the ATP World Tour finals where he put on a clinic in ball striking, managing to break through Djokovic’s defense.
Djokovic is a different beast when it comes to best of 5 matches though, and one fascinating battle to watch will be Djokovic’s rock solid two-handed backhand versus Thiem’s aggressive one-hander, especially in these low bouncing conditions which favour Djokovic. Thiem will likely try to slice to the Djokovic forehand, one shot the Serbian is uncomfortable with is hitting low bouncing balls on the forehand wing. Djokovic’s serve is perhaps one of the most underrated areas of his game and he’s now hitting some of the fastest first and second serve speeds of his career, how effectively Thiem can return on the backhand wing will be crucial.
The fatigue and time on court factor is a hard one to ignore, considering any Thiem victory would almost certainly require five sets of supreme effort.
Best Bet: Dominic Thiem to win 1st Set and Lose match +500
