Carlos Alcaraz, the No. 2 seed and defending champion, is on a mission to cement his grass-court legacy with a third straight Wimbledon title.
But Taylor Fritz, red-hot off titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne, won’t roll over. My Fritz vs. Alcaraz predictions see the Spaniard bending under Fritz’s relentless pressure but refusing to break.
Join me as I dive into this Wimbledon odds and predictions for this semifinal clash on Friday, July 11, with a free betting pick that breaks down why Alcaraz remains the man to beat.
Alcaraz vs Fritz prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Carlos Alcaraz moneyline (-530)
- My best bet: Carlos Alcaraz 3-1 set score (+240)
Match analysis
Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is an overwhelming favorite to beat No. 5 seed Taylor Fritz. Both prior head-to-head meetings have been one-sided affairs. Friday’s semifinal will likely follow this trend.
Alcaraz is a maestro. He can and does deploy every shot in the book. He boasts a top-15 service game and a top-5 ranking in practically everything else.
The No. 2 seed has already reached eight Grand Slam semifinals in only 18 GS appearances. His recent dominance includes a 23-match winning streak coming into Friday's semi, and 19 straight victories at SW 19.
Fritz is red hot. He’s won Stuttgart and Eastbourne this season. Fritz has withstood major tests during this fortnight; his massive serve-forehand combo has gotten him through thus far, but Friday is where it ends.
Best best analysis
Fritz may lose this match, but he won’t go down quietly. His opening two sets against Karen Khachanov were as good as it gets for anyone.
He’s the tourney's active ace leader (95). He’s fit. His confidence is soaring. He’s broken serve 19 times during this fortnight. Alcaraz is a legendary sleepwalker, and maybe Fritz can win one set. It's highly ambitious to believe Fritz will do more than that. Fritz also loses focus at times, and Alcaraz can go from one foot in the grave with the other on a banana peel to hoisting the Cup faster than anyone.
Alcaraz has suffered 10 service breaks during this fortnight. Fritz boasts a 45% break rate during his run at SW19. He’s gone four sets or more thrice in five Wimbledon matches and up against the best grass-court player Alcaraz has faced thus far.
I’m betting Carlitos escapes with a 3-1 set victory.
Alcaraz vs Fritz odds
| (2) Carlos Alcaraz | (5) Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| -575 | Moneyline | +400 |
| -5.5 (-130) | Game spread | +5.5 (-105) |
| Over 12.5 (+265) | Total games | Under 12.5 (-450) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
How to watch Alcaraz vs Fritz
| Location | Centre Court, London, England |
| Date | Friday, 7-11-2025 |
| Time | 8:30am |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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