Uvis Balinskis Goals Scored Props • Florida

Rogers Place
Carter Verhaeghe averaged more than three shots per game in the regular season and cleared this line at a healthy 56% clip. We’ve seen quite a dip in the playoffs, with the veteran winger producing 2.3 shots per game and posting a 43% hit rate. Verhaeghe has attempted six shots or fewer in seven consecutive games, averaging 5.14 attempts in that span. The Florida Panthers have been outshot by 10 at 5-on-5 with Verhaeghe on the ice in this series. He’s also lost his spot on the top power play, with Paul Maurice favoring the two defensemen approach. There isn’t much reason to expect a spike in volume in Game 5.
The league’s brightest star has shot the lights out in Edmonton all playoffs long. Connor McDavid has averaged 4.7 shots per game on eight attempts when playing on home ice. Unsurprisingly, that’s led to a ton of success in his shot market. He has cleared this line in seven of nine, including Game 1 and Game 2 against the Panthers. Isolating the Stanley Cup Final, the Edmonton Oilers have generated shots at a much higher rate during McDavid’s minutes when at home. That has translated to his individual volume as well. With more beneficial matchups, and momentum from a pivotal Game 4 victory, expect McDavid to come out firing in Game 5.
Gustav Forsling cleared 1.5 shots effortlessly for much of the season. Then something happened: the Panthers acquired Seth Jones. To say that’s negatively impacted Forsling’s outputs would be an understatement. Forsling averaged 2.6 shots per game and recorded at least two shots in 82% of his appearances. He hit a wall down the stretch, clearing this line in only 8 of 20 games with Jones in the lineup. His hit rate was essentially cut in half. If four attempts (or fewer) is the baseline for Forsling, he’s unlikely to go over this total. Playoffs included, he’s produced multiple shots in only five of 26 games (19%) since the Jones trade while attempting four shots or less.
Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has turned to backup Calvin Pickard in consecutive games, and the No. 2 stopped 22 of 23 shots in Game 4 to backstop the comeback win when starter Stuart Skinner was pulled after allowing three goals on 17 shots in the first period. I expect Pickard to start Game 5 given his perfect 7-0 postseason record. A trio of overtimes has skewed the numbers this series, but Florida has still averaged 36.3 shots per game, so the Panthers are set to do the heavy lifting, and Pickard just needs to average seven stops a period to hit the Over.
Last Meeting ( Jun 12, 2025 ) Edmonton 5, Florida 4
The Edmonton Oilers could have returned home a loss away from falling to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final for a second straight year.
Instead, they have a chance to put themselves one win away from a championship when they host the Panthers for Game 5 on Saturday.
It didn't look like they would be in this position after Florida staked a 3-0 lead in the first period of Game 4 on Thursday. But the Oilers rallied to take a 4-3 advantage and, after the Panthers tied it in the dying seconds, Leon Draisaitl clinched it in overtime to give the visitors the 5-4 win.
The best-of-seven series is tied 2-2.
"I mean, everybody knows what the crowd's going to be like, Saturday night in Alberta, it's going to be exciting," veteran Edmonton winger Corey Perry said. "But I think I've talked about this a lot: We're mature and I think after that first period last night it showed we're a mature hockey team. I don't expect anything else."
The 40-year-old helped spark the Oilers with some words of wisdom after the first period. He's also been delivering on the ice with nine goals in the playoffs, second only to Draisaitl. Perry, who is playing in the Stanley Cup Final for the fifth time in the past six seasons, has 140 points (63 goals, 77 assists) in 235 career playoff games.
"He's been so valuable for us," Edmonton defenseman Mattias Ekholm said of Perry. "He's a leader and he knows exactly when to step in there. He doesn't do it all the time but when he does, it's always great and gets everybody's attention.
"I mean, it was good from him last night again, both on the ice and in the locker room. It's what we expect out of him. He's getting up there, but he's still got it."
The Panthers, meanwhile, are turning the page after the loss. They've been here before: Last year, Edmonton erased Florida's 3-0 series lead to ultimately force a Game 7.
"We're calm and confident," Panthers defenseman Gustav Forsling said. "If we play our game, we know we're going to win most games. ... The good thing is, we have a game tomorrow, so we're ready to bounce right back. We're very excited to get back."
It's been an incredibly tight series thus far, with three of the four games going to overtime. Florida's power play has helped fuel the defending Cup champions, going 7-for-21 with the man advantage.
It could be the edge the Panthers need to regain the series lead; the Oilers have scored just four times on 20 power-play opportunities.
"A lot of the success in postseason is how you handle your losses," Florida forward Sam Reinhart said. "They're going to happen, especially when you get down to the last two teams. You've got two of the best teams going at it. So you've got to expect to lose at some point. There's a lot we can learn from and come back strong in Game 5."
Edmonton has not announced a starting goalie for Game 5. Stuart Skinner was pulled after allowing three goals on 17 shots in the first period in Game 4. He was also pulled early in the third period of the 6-1 loss in Game 3.
--Field Level Media