The Stanley Cup rematch between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers has lived up to the billing and then some, with three of the first four games decided in thrilling overtime affairs.
Let’s break down some of the best ways to attack Game 5 with my NHL prop picks. And be sure to check out our Panthers vs. Oilers prediction ahead of tonight's game in Edmonton.
Best Panthers vs Oilers props
Verhaeghe Under 2.5 shots (-145)
McDavid Over 3.5 shots (-105)- Forsling Under 1.5 shots (-135)
Panthers vs Oilers player props for June 14
Carter Verhaeghe Under 2.5 shots (-145 at BET99)
Carter Verhaeghe averaged more than three shots per game in the regular season and cleared this line at a healthy 56% clip.
We’ve seen quite a dip in the playoffs, with the veteran winger producing 2.3 shots per game and posting a 43% hit rate.
Verhaeghe has attempted six shots or fewer in seven consecutive games, averaging 5.14 attempts in that span.
He did not clear his shot total very often in the regular season when generating such numbers. Verhaeghe posted a 32% hit rate when attempting six shots or fewer on the road.
If you drop the ceiling to five attempts – his recent average – then he averaged only 1.9 shots per game and cleared just 29% of the time in road games.
The Florida Panthers have been outshot by 10 at 5-on-5 with Verhaeghe on the ice in this series. He’s also lost his spot on the top power play, with Paul Maurice favoring the two defensemen approach.
There isn’t much reason to expect a spike in volume in Game 5.
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 shots (-105 at BET99)
Death, taxes, and Connor McDavid at home. The league’s brightest star has shot the lights out in Edmonton all playoffs long.
McDavid has averaged 4.7 shots per game on eight attempts when playing on home ice. Unsurprisingly, that’s led to a ton of success in his shot market. He has cleared this line in seven of nine, including Game 1 and Game 2 against the Panthers.
Isolating the Stanley Cup Final, the Edmonton Oilers have generated shots at a much higher rate during McDavid’s minutes when at home. That has translated to his individual volume as well.
McDavid averaged nearly nine shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play over the first two games in Edmonton.
It was a much different story in Florida with the Panthers able to get the matchups they wanted. McDavid saw more of Florida’s two Selke finalists and that showed in the numbers. He was only able to produce 3.95 shots on goal per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play spanning Game 3 and 4.
With more beneficial matchups, and momentum from a pivotal Game 4 victory, expect McDavid to come out firing in Game 5.
Gustav Forsling Under 1.5 shots (-135 at BET99)
Gustav Forsling cleared 1.5 shots effortlessly for much of the season. Then something happened: the Panthers acquired Seth Jones. To say that’s negatively impacted Forsling’s outputs would be an understatement.
Forsling averaged 2.6 shots per game and recorded at least two shots in 82% of his appearances.
He hit a wall down the stretch, clearing this line in only 8 of 20 games with Jones in the lineup. His hit rate was essentially cut in half.
That has continued in the playoffs, with Forsling averaging 1.4 shots per game and hitting in only eight of 21 games thus far. That’s a 38% success rate, directly in line with what we saw in the regular season after Jones was thrown into the mix.
Forsling has attempted 5+ shots in only three of his last 15 and two of them came in overtime games during this series, affording him extra shifts to get pucks towards the net.
Put another way, he attempted four or less in 12 of 15 and two of the exceptions featured OT.
If four attempts (or fewer) is the baseline for Forsling, he’s unlikely to go over this total. Playoffs included, he’s produced multiple shots in only five of 26 games (19%) since the Jones trade while attempting four shots or less.
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