Panthers vs Oilers Picks & Props

Connor McDavid produced multiple points in 43% of his regular season games. He’s taken things up a notch in the playoffs, hitting the scoresheet two times or more in 55% of his appearances. McDavid has been especially productive on home soil. He’s averaged exactly two points per game and cleared this line in seven of nine games (77%), including each of the first two against the Florida Panthers. Kris Knoblauch generally tends to throw Leon Draisaitl to the wolves more so than McDavid, freeing up the game’s most electric offensive player to play in more advantageous matchups. It has paid off time and time again and we have evidence in this very series.

Sam Bennett has scored 12 of his NHL-leading 14 goals as the visitor this postseason. The Florida Panthers forward had his four-game goal streak snapped in Game 4 but with 14 tallies in 21 contests during the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, you have to like Bennett’s chances of finding the back of the net in Game 5.

As the series shifts back to Rogers Place in Edmonton tonight for Game 5, I’m expecting Brad Marchand to make an impact. The veteran forward has been a road warrior this postseason, collecting 14 of his 18 points as the visitor, while finding the score sheet in three straight road games and eight of his last 10. The Florida Panthers third line has outscored the opposition 12-3 at 5-on-5 – by far the highest goal total and differential of any trio Florida has put out on the ice – so I’m banking on them to combine on at least one more tonight. Florida is averaging exactly 4 gpg in these playoffs and 4.5 gpg in the Stanley Cup Final, so chances are Marchand and his linemates factor on at least one goal in Game 5.

Corey Perry has been a menace in front of Sergei Bobrovsky this entire series. He should have had a goal in Game 4, but Bobrovsky made a last-ditch effort to rob him with his left toe. Perry has been a difference-maker for the Edmonton Oilers throughout the postseason. The 40-year-old has nine goals through 20 games and has scored in two of the four games of this Stanley Cup Final.

Since the 2023 postseason, Verhaeghe has the third-most goals in the playoffs, scoring 25 in 66 games. This postseason, Verhaeghe has tallied seven goals through 20 games, but his line has been incredibly impactful. Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk, and Sam Bennett have been skating to a 3.03 expected goals per 60 minutes. 

Bennett has 21 points in 21 games but has scored 14 goals, which leads all skaters in the playoffs. He also set a record for most goals scored on the road in a postseason in NHL history (12), so the Edmonton crowd does not intimidate him whatsoever.

Gustav Forsling cleared 1.5 shots effortlessly for much of the season. Then something happened: the Panthers acquired Seth Jones. To say that’s negatively impacted Forsling’s outputs would be an understatement. Forsling averaged 2.6 shots per game and recorded at least two shots in 82% of his appearances. He hit a wall down the stretch, clearing this line in only 8 of 20 games with Jones in the lineup. His hit rate was essentially cut in half. If four attempts (or fewer) is the baseline for Forsling, he’s unlikely to go over this total. Playoffs included, he’s produced multiple shots in only five of 26 games (19%) since the Jones trade while attempting four shots or less.

The league’s brightest star has shot the lights out in Edmonton all playoffs long. Connor McDavid has averaged 4.7 shots per game on eight attempts when playing on home ice. Unsurprisingly, that’s led to a ton of success in his shot market. He has cleared this line in seven of nine, including Game 1 and Game 2 against the Panthers. Isolating the Stanley Cup Final, the Edmonton Oilers have generated shots at a much higher rate during McDavid’s minutes when at home. That has translated to his individual volume as well. With more beneficial matchups, and momentum from a pivotal Game 4 victory, expect McDavid to come out firing in Game 5.

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has turned to backup Calvin Pickard in consecutive games, and the No. 2 stopped 22 of 23 shots in Game 4 to backstop the comeback win when starter Stuart Skinner was pulled after allowing three goals on 17 shots in the first period. I expect Pickard to start Game 5 given his perfect 7-0 postseason record. A trio of overtimes has skewed the numbers this series, but Florida has still averaged 36.3 shots per game, so the Panthers are set to do the heavy lifting, and Pickard just needs to average seven stops a period to hit the Over.

Carter Verhaeghe averaged more than three shots per game in the regular season and cleared this line at a healthy 56% clip. We’ve seen quite a dip in the playoffs, with the veteran winger producing 2.3 shots per game and posting a 43% hit rate. Verhaeghe has attempted six shots or fewer in seven consecutive games, averaging 5.14 attempts in that span. The Florida Panthers have been outshot by 10 at 5-on-5 with Verhaeghe on the ice in this series. He’s also lost his spot on the top power play, with Paul Maurice favoring the two defensemen approach. There isn’t much reason to expect a spike in volume in Game 5.