Pittsburgh Steelers

1st in AFC North (6 - 5 - 0)

Next Game

BUFBuffalo Buffalo
at
Pittsburgh PITPittsburgh
Sun, Nov 30 16:25 ET

BUF @ PIT Picks

NFL Picks
Rushing Yards
Jaylen Warren logo Jaylen Warren o60.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
o60.5 -112 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
Jeremy Jones image
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst
o62.5  -109
These are quick bet odds
 -
o60.5  -112
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o64.5  -110
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o62.5  -120
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The Bills rank 30th in rushing yards allowed and 31st in yards per attempt allowed and Jaylen Warren has hit this number in five of his last six games. 

Receiving Yards
Darnell Washington logo Darnell Washington u16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Best Odds
u16.5 -112 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
Jeremy Jones image
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst
u15.5  -107
These are quick bet odds
 -
u16.5  -112
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u16.5  -120
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u16.5  -118
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The Bills have the best pass defense in the NFL and they do not allow yards after the catch while Darnell Washington lives off getting yards after the catch and this is a bad matchup for him.

Passing Completions
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen o20.5 Passing Completions (-114)
Best Odds
o20.5 -113 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
Jeremy Jones image
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst
o21.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
 -
o20.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
o20.5  -135
These are quick bet odds
o20.5  -127

The Steelers rank dead last in the NFL in both passing yards and pass attempts allowed this season and Josh Allen has 23 or more pass completions in three of their last four games.

Score a Touchdown
Kenneth Gainwell logo Kenneth Gainwell Score a Touchdown (Yes: +230)
Best Odds
 +240 FanDuel
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +235
 +230
 +240
 -
 +225

Jaylen Warren is still the starter, but Kenneth Gainwell has been cutting into his workload. He’s played roughly half the snaps for two straight weeks and actually out-rushed Warren 92–68 last week on eight fewer carries. There shouldn’t be a 100-point gap between their TD prices in this matchup. Buffalo’s run defense is shaky, and I keep thinking back to the Tampa game where Sean Tucker gashed them with ease. With Pittsburgh’s quarterback banged up, both backs can put up numbers, but the value sits with Gainwell. Over the last three games, he has twice as many inside-the-10 carries as Warren.

Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen o28.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
o29.5 -108 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o29.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
 -
o29.5  -112
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o31.5  -115
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o29.5  -115
These are quick bet odds

Allen has used his legs to take a chunk out of blitz-happy opponents more than a few times this season. He’s played eight games against teams in the Top 10 in blitz rate, topping 30 yards rushing in six of those outings and averaging more than 36 yards rushing per contest.

Read Full Analysis
Score a Touchdown
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)
Projection 0.57 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +145 DraftKings
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 +145
 +125
 +140
 -
 +135
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.
+145 at DraftKings
Passing Attempts
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o30.5 Passing Attempts (-106)
Projection 33.46 (Over)
Best Odds
o30.5 -106 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o31.5  -102
These are quick bet odds
 -
o30.5  -106
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o31.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -125
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
-106 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o202.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 227.47 (Over)
Best Odds
o202.5 -112 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o204.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o202.5  -112
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o205.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o203.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
-112 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u232.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 213.38 (Under)
Best Odds
u234.5 -112 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u234.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u232.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
u231.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u232.5  -121
These are quick bet odds
With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.. The projections expect the Bills to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
-112 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+100)
Projection 0.42 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +100 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u0.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
 -
u0.5  -102
u0.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  -108
With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.. The projections expect the Bills to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
+100 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jonnu Smith logo
Jonnu Smith o16.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
Projection 26.08 (Over)
Best Odds
o15.5 -110 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o15.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
o16.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
o16.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
o16.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. The Bills linebackers project as the 9th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
-110 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o8.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 16.38 (Over)
Best Odds
o8.5 -112 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o10.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o8.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
o8.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o8.5  -122
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 79th percentile among running backs with 3.0 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. With an impressive 17.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (79th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the best running backs in the pass game in the NFL.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.
-112 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
DK Metcalf logo
DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 58.23 (Over)
Best Odds
o46.5 -110 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o46.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
o46.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
o49.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o47.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. DK Metcalf has run a route on 93.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.. In this week's game, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 84th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
-110 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Khalil Shakir logo
Khalil Shakir o50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 57.04 (Over)
Best Odds
o50.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o52.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o51.5  -112
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o50.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o51.5  -121
These are quick bet odds
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football.. The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to garner 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.. With a remarkable 21.3% Target% (78th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.. Khalil Shakir grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 48.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III o12.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 15.48 (Over)
Best Odds
o12.5 -112 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o12.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
o13.5  -112
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o12.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o13.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football.. James Cook has run a route on 46.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.. When talking about air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs this year, accruing a whopping 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.. James Cook's 96.0% Adjusted Completion% this season marks an impressive improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.7% figure.
-112 at DraftKings
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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

65% picking Buffalo

65%
35%

Total Picks BUF 624, PIT 338

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BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'stom5900' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +8700 units on the season.

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BUF
PIT
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-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'stom5900' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +8700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
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'Abbyllar' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.0)

Abbyllar is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +6800 units on the season.

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BUF
PIT
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-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'Abbyllar' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (45.5)

Abbyllar is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +6800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
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'saintsnola15' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

saintsnola15 is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4970 units on the season.

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BUF
PIT
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-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'saintsnola15' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

saintsnola15 is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4970 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
Spread

'bigsmoke21169' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +6850 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
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'charro23' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

charro23 is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5470 units on the season.

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BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'charro23' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

charro23 is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5470 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
Total

'bigsmoke21169' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +6850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
Total

'Kansas2014' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
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'gokou31' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

gokou31 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
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'Kansas2014' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
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'livelywee55' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

livelywee55 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5400 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
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'oline75' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.0)

oline75 is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'oline75' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (45.5)

oline75 is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
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'BetoCM' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

BetoCM is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4350 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'BetoCM' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

BetoCM is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
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'RAZORAZE283' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.0)

RAZORAZE283 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5350 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'RAZORAZE283' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.0)

RAZORAZE283 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
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'midsro49' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+4.5)

midsro49 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4200 units on the season.

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BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'midsro49' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

midsro49 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
Total

'bugsy1958' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

bugsy1958 is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
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'bugsy1958' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

bugsy1958 is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
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'bluorch158' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

bluorch158 is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4020 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126
Total

'bluorch158' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

bluorch158 is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4020 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
Total

'Bazooks813973' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

Bazooks813973 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +5130 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -102
47 -134
Spread

'Bazooks813973' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

Bazooks813973 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +5130 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -161
+3.5 -126

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