Pittsburgh Steelers

3rd in AFC North (1 - 1 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Sep 27 13:00 ET

CIN @ PIT Picks

NFL Picks
Passing Touchdowns
Joe Burrow logo Joe Burrow o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-102)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Burrow has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of his past eight games for 18 total dating back to 2025, and the Steelers have backfield question marks. Pittsburgh cornerback Jamel Dean practiced Thursday after missing Wednesday’s session with an ankle injury, safety DeShon Elliott is on injured reserve, and Joey Porter Jr.'s status continues to be clouded by contract disputes after missing the first two weeks of the season.

Anytime Touchdown
Tee Higgins logo Tee Higgins Score a Touchdown (Yes: +181)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Bengals haven’t looked to Higgins in the red zone yet in 2026, and I’m anticipating that to change following consecutive seasons with double-digit touchdowns. Higgins garnered 19.8% and 19% of the red-zone targets the past two years, and wide receiver Andrei Iosivas (thumb) is also out of the lineup. With Pittsburgh set to have its hands full with star wideout Ja'Marr Chase, Higgins stands to see softer coverage in Week 3, too.

Spread
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail CIN -3.5 (-101)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I recommend backing Cincinnati -3.5 to -115 because the Bengals rank seventh in defensive DVOA while allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per play, so I’m anticipating another long afternoon for Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers. He's thrown for just 5.2 yards per attempt and ranks 31st in EPA per play through two weeks, after all.

Anytime Touchdown
Ja'Marr Chase logo Ja'Marr Chase Score a Touchdown (Yes: +130)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

I got this at 2.3x and would play to 2.15x. This is not a game to get cute. It could be a low-scoring AFC North battle, but with Joey Porter just getting back to action and Jamel Dean missing practice, the depth and stamina at corner for the Steelers is not great against the second-best receiver in football. The Steelers have faced the Patriots and Falcons, so their defensive numbers could be inflated, and they have yet to see a legit QB-WR combo. Chase had a two-TD Week 2 and leads all Bengals WRs in red-zone targets. Stay away from Mike Gesicki this week. Don't fall for a big Week 1 like I did last week. Chase put up 161 yards on 16 catches and a TD in the first meeting vs. the Steelers last year. 

Moneyline
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail CIN (-174)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Pittsburgh takes a series step up in competition and this is no longer the Steelers we could count on under Mike Tomlin. Aaron Rodgers is done and Cincinnati is looking like the best two-way team in the NFL, after handling Houston on the road in Week 3. The Bengals have collected eight sacks in the first two games and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers doesn’t make it through Week 3, given the pounding he took in New England.  Oh, and Joe Burrow is absolutely firing on all cylinders. He’s surgical versus zone coverage and will slice up Patrick Graham’s passive playcalling. I'm taking Cincy ML before this price ticks up to two bucks or higher.

3 LEG PARLAY
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5
Spread
Tee Higgins profile picture
Tee Higgins o49.5 Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards
Tee Higgins profile picture
Tee Higgins Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Bet now
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

With the Bengals ranking seventh in defensive DVOA while allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per play, I’m anticipating another long afternoon for Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers. I also give Cincinnati a huge edge at quarterback and am particularly bullish on a big game for the Joe Burrow-Tee Higgins connection. Higgins turned his 10 targets into five receptions for 95 yards last week, and his 19.3 yards per reception and 15.7 aDoT to start the season have my attention. He’s scored double-digit touchdowns in consecutive years, too.

Passing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o252.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 303.44 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Joe Burrow grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 202.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o220.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 251.76 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 129.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. In this week's game, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.1. . Since the start of last season, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a staggering 247.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 3rd-most in the league.
Rushing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o0.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 13.49 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Since the start of last season, the daunting Bengals run defense has yielded a paltry 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 28th-best rate in the league.
Rushing Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 65.5 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to notch 16.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a less important option in his offense's ground game in this week's contest (47.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.8% in games he has played).. Jaylen Warren has picked up 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (84th percentile).. Since the start of last season, the daunting Bengals run defense has yielded a paltry 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 28th-best rate in the league.
Rushing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o5.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Projection 6.84 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
Receiving Yards
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Ja'Marr Chase o75.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 92.92 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to earn 11.5 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Receiving Yards
Mike Gesicki logo
Mike Gesicki o23.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Projection 34.01 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a monstrous 34.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.. Mike Gesicki's 10.7 adjusted yards per target this season marks a remarkable growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 7.4 rate.
Receiving Yards
DK Metcalf logo
DK Metcalf o52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 61.16 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 129.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. With an impressive 93.0% Route Participation Rate (94th percentile) since the start of last season, DK Metcalf has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. In this week's contest, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.8 targets.
Receiving Yards
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown o21.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 25.23 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. In this contest, Chase Brown is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.2 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
Receiving Yards
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pat Freiermuth o36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 38.22 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to notch 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Since the start of last season, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a whopping 83.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the most in football.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

65% picking Cincinnati

65%
35%

Total Picks CIN 615, PIT 330

Spread
CIN
PIT
Total

59% picking Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Under

41%
59%

Total PicksCIN 241, PIT 343

Total
Over
Under

CIN @ PIT · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread
-3.80 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.59% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-3.80 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.59% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-3.5 +100
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
Over 42.5 Total
47.46 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
21.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
Over 42.5 Total

PROJECTION

47.46 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
21.18% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o42.5 -109
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o252.5 Passing Yards
303.44 OVER PROJECTION
+50.9 DIFFERENCE
26.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o252.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

303.44 OVER PROJECTION
+50.9 DIFFERENCE
26.41% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Joe Burrow grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 202.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.

o247.5 -114
BetRivers logo
PASSING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards
251.76 OVER PROJECTION
+31.3 DIFFERENCE
26.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

251.76 OVER PROJECTION
+31.3 DIFFERENCE
26.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 129.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. In this week's game, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.1. . Since the start of last season, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a staggering 247.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 3rd-most in the league.

o215.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
13.49 OVER PROJECTION
+13.0 DIFFERENCE
26.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

13.49 OVER PROJECTION
+13.0 DIFFERENCE
26.54% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Since the start of last season, the daunting Bengals run defense has yielded a paltry 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 28th-best rate in the league.

o0.5 -112
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o58.5 Rushing Yards
65.50 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
23.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o58.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

65.50 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
23.07% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to notch 16.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a less important option in his offense's ground game in this week's contest (47.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.8% in games he has played).. Jaylen Warren has picked up 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (84th percentile).. Since the start of last season, the daunting Bengals run defense has yielded a paltry 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 28th-best rate in the league.

o57.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards
6.84 OVER PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
17.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

6.84 OVER PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
17.43% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.

o3.5 -120
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards
92.92 OVER PROJECTION
+17.4 DIFFERENCE
25.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

92.92 OVER PROJECTION
+17.4 DIFFERENCE
25.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to earn 11.5 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.

o70.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards
34.01 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
25.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

34.01 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
25.78% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a monstrous 34.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.. Mike Gesicki's 10.7 adjusted yards per target this season marks a remarkable growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 7.4 rate.

o20.5 -150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) o52.5 Receiving Yards
61.16 OVER PROJECTION
+8.7 DIFFERENCE
23.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) o52.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

61.16 OVER PROJECTION
+8.7 DIFFERENCE
23.78% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 129.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. With an impressive 93.0% Route Participation Rate (94th percentile) since the start of last season, DK Metcalf has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. In this week's contest, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.8 targets.

o50.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o21.5 Receiving Yards
25.23 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
20.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o21.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

25.23 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
20.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. In this contest, Chase Brown is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.2 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

o20.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards
38.22 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
18.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

38.22 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
18.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to notch 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Since the start of last season, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a whopping 83.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the most in football.

o35.5 -117
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o25.5 Receiving Yards
26.18 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
17.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

26.18 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
17.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. In this contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.9 targets.. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) to running backs since the start of last season.

o23.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made
7.95 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
17.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.95 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
17.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Ja'Marr Chase ranks as one of the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 6.8 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

o6.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.95 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
14.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.95 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
14.64% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.13 seconds per snap.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up a staggering 80.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-biggest rate in the league.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the 10th-worst in football.

o2.5 +100
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.82 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
11.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.82 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
11.06% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. In this contest, Chase Brown is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.2 targets.. Chase Brown grades out as one of the best RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 3.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

o3.5 +112
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-27.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-27.8% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Jaylen Warren grades out as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an exceptional 2.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the poor Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 86.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

o3.5 -140
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u15.5 Rushing Attempts
14.49 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u15.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.49 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 35.8% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the best DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

u16.5 -128
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o15.5 Rushing Attempts
15.61 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o15.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.61 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.56% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to notch 16.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a less important option in his offense's ground game in this week's contest (47.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.8% in games he has played).

o15.5 +102
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts
37.01 OVER PROJECTION
+2.5 DIFFERENCE
16.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

37.01 OVER PROJECTION
+2.5 DIFFERENCE
16.69% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.

o34.5 -105
BetMGM logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u35.5 Passing Attempts
34.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
7.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u35.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
7.2% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u35.5 -113
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o23.5 Passing Completions
28.61 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
24.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o23.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

28.61 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
24.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Steelers defense has allowed a whopping 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in the league.

o23.5 +100
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u22.5 Passing Completions
21.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u22.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The Cincinnati defensive ends grade out as the 7th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

u22.5 -122
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.17% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. In this week's game, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5.

+1900
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.65 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.65 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.61% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.13 seconds per snap.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

-111
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.91% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Ja'Marr Chase has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

+130
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a monstrous 34.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.

+450
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.57 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.57 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. While Jaylen Warren has garnered 8.6% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Pittsburgh's pass game near the goal line this week at 15.6%.

+110
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.14 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.14 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.13 seconds per snap.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.7. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.

+700
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.87% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Pat Freiermuth has accrued a whopping 22.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.

+400
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. DK Metcalf has put up a colossal 79.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile when it comes to WRs.

+225
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.85% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The Cincinnati offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Pittsburgh's defense profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season when it comes to inducing interceptions, notching 0.92 per game.

u0.5 +102
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INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. In this week's game, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6. . The Pittsburgh offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

o0.5 -108
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  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread
-3.80 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.59% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -3.5 spread

PROJECTION

-3.80 PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
-0.59% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-3.5 +100
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
TOTAL
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
Over 42.5 Total
47.46 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
21.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
Over 42.5 Total

PROJECTION

47.46 OVER PROJECTION
+5.0 DIFFERENCE
21.18% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o42.5 -109
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PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o252.5 Passing Yards
303.44 OVER PROJECTION
+50.9 DIFFERENCE
26.41% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o252.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

303.44 OVER PROJECTION
+50.9 DIFFERENCE
26.41% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Joe Burrow grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 202.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.

o247.5 -114
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PASSING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards
251.76 OVER PROJECTION
+31.3 DIFFERENCE
26.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o220.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

251.76 OVER PROJECTION
+31.3 DIFFERENCE
26.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 129.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. In this week's game, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.1. . Since the start of last season, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a staggering 247.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 3rd-most in the league.

o215.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards
13.49 OVER PROJECTION
+13.0 DIFFERENCE
26.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

13.49 OVER PROJECTION
+13.0 DIFFERENCE
26.54% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Since the start of last season, the daunting Bengals run defense has yielded a paltry 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 28th-best rate in the league.

o0.5 -112
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o58.5 Rushing Yards
65.50 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
23.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o58.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

65.50 OVER PROJECTION
+7.0 DIFFERENCE
23.07% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to notch 16.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a less important option in his offense's ground game in this week's contest (47.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.8% in games he has played).. Jaylen Warren has picked up 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (84th percentile).. Since the start of last season, the daunting Bengals run defense has yielded a paltry 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 28th-best rate in the league.

o57.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards
6.84 OVER PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
17.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o5.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

6.84 OVER PROJECTION
+1.3 DIFFERENCE
17.43% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.

o3.5 -120
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards
92.92 OVER PROJECTION
+17.4 DIFFERENCE
25.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o75.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

92.92 OVER PROJECTION
+17.4 DIFFERENCE
25.92% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to earn 11.5 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.

o70.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards
34.01 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
25.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

34.01 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
25.78% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a monstrous 34.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.. Mike Gesicki's 10.7 adjusted yards per target this season marks a remarkable growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 7.4 rate.

o20.5 -150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) o52.5 Receiving Yards
61.16 OVER PROJECTION
+8.7 DIFFERENCE
23.78% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) o52.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

61.16 OVER PROJECTION
+8.7 DIFFERENCE
23.78% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 129.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. With an impressive 93.0% Route Participation Rate (94th percentile) since the start of last season, DK Metcalf has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. In this week's contest, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.8 targets.

o50.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o21.5 Receiving Yards
25.23 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
20.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o21.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

25.23 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
20.81% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. In this contest, Chase Brown is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.2 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

o20.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards
38.22 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
18.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

38.22 OVER PROJECTION
+1.7 DIFFERENCE
18.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to notch 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Since the start of last season, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a whopping 83.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the most in football.

o35.5 -117
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o25.5 Receiving Yards
26.18 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
17.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

26.18 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
17.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. In this contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.9 targets.. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) to running backs since the start of last season.

o23.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made
7.95 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
17.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) o6.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

7.95 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
17.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Ja'Marr Chase ranks as one of the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 6.8 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

o6.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.95 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
14.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.95 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
14.64% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.13 seconds per snap.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up a staggering 80.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-biggest rate in the league.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the 10th-worst in football.

o2.5 +100
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.82 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
11.06% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.82 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
11.06% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. In this contest, Chase Brown is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.2 targets.. Chase Brown grades out as one of the best RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 3.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

o3.5 +112
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-27.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.55 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-27.8% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Jaylen Warren grades out as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an exceptional 2.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the poor Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 86.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

o3.5 -140
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u15.5 Rushing Attempts
14.49 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u15.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.49 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.0 DIFFERENCE
16.68% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 35.8% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the best DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

u16.5 -128
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o15.5 Rushing Attempts
15.61 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o15.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.61 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.56% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to notch 16.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to be a less important option in his offense's ground game in this week's contest (47.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.8% in games he has played).

o15.5 +102
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts
37.01 OVER PROJECTION
+2.5 DIFFERENCE
16.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

37.01 OVER PROJECTION
+2.5 DIFFERENCE
16.69% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.

o34.5 -105
BetMGM logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u35.5 Passing Attempts
34.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
7.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u35.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.57 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.9 DIFFERENCE
7.2% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u35.5 -113
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o23.5 Passing Completions
28.61 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
24.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o23.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

28.61 OVER PROJECTION
+5.1 DIFFERENCE
24.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Steelers defense has allowed a whopping 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in the league.

o23.5 +100
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u22.5 Passing Completions
21.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) u22.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
12.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The Cincinnati defensive ends grade out as the 7th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

u22.5 -122
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.09 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
23.17% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. In this week's game, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5.

+1900
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.65 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.65 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.61% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.13 seconds per snap.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

-111
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.91% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Ja'Marr Chase logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Chase (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.91% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Ja'Marr Chase has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

+130
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are expected by the projection model to call 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.. The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a monstrous 34.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.

+450
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.57 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.57 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. While Jaylen Warren has garnered 8.6% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Pittsburgh's pass game near the goal line this week at 15.6%.

+110
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.14 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.14 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
9.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.13 seconds per snap.. In this game, Joe Burrow is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 39.7. . The Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.

+700
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.87% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.87% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. Pat Freiermuth has accrued a whopping 22.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.

+400
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
DK Metcalf logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
D. Metcalf (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. DK Metcalf has put up a colossal 79.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile when it comes to WRs.

+225
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.44 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
18.85% EV

ANALYSIS

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.. The Cincinnati offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.. Pittsburgh's defense profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season when it comes to inducing interceptions, notching 0.92 per game.

u0.5 +102
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
10.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Steelers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. In this week's game, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6. . The Pittsburgh offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

o0.5 -108
FanDuel logo

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'ghostriderjeff' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

ghostriderjeff is #1 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'BlindLuck' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Under (43.5)

BlindLuck is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'BlindLuck' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

BlindLuck is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'liveactiondockery' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

liveactiondockery is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'RR69' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

RR69 is #10 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'RR69' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Over (42.5)

RR69 is #10 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'liveactiondockery' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Under (42.5)

liveactiondockery is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'HUNTA' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

HUNTA is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Tuppy' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

Tuppy is #3 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Tuppy' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Over (42.5)

Tuppy is #3 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'rhinorey' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Under (43.5)

rhinorey is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'rhinorey' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

rhinorey is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'pittsburghphil' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

pittsburghphil is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'pittsburghphil' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Under (43.5)

pittsburghphil is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Raven702' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Under (42.5)

Raven702 is #4 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'SUNIN65' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-1.5)

SUNIN65 is #5 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'SUNIN65' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Over (46.5)

SUNIN65 is #5 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Sexybaby5' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-1.5)

Sexybaby5 is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Sexybaby5' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Under (45.5)

Sexybaby5 is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'grandpa9494' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-3.5)

grandpa9494 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'grandpa9494' picks Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh to go Under (42.5)

grandpa9494 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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Under

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