Pittsburgh Steelers Picks

Pick made: 12 hours ago

o11.5 -114

o12.5 -110

o11.5 -115

Swift has 12 or more receiving yards in seven of nine games for 6.4 yards per target and 23 receptions for 210 yards. He also went good for 12 or more receiving yards in 11 of 17 games last season, and he’s only had a lower receiving yards total twice since joining the Bears. With the Steelers blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, I’m anticipating Swift being involved in the passing game as a means to mitigate the Pittsburgh pressure.

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Score a Touchdown

Rome Odunze Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)

Best Odds

+167

Pick made: yesterday

+165

+160

+165

+167

There aren’t many markets posted for this matchup, but Chicago’s passing game draws a great spot against a Pittsburgh defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Rome Odunze should be the focal point of the Bears’ offense, especially with D’Andre Swift limited in practice. Odunze has scored in half his games this season and in three of four at home. The Steelers have four DBs out, and Darius Slay is questionable after sitting out last week with a concussion. With limited playable options due to all the offensive injuries, Odunze is the safest angle on the board, and there’s still 10–15 points of cushion in his number.

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PIT +3.0 (-108)

Best Odds

+2.5 -105

Pick made: 3 days ago

+2.5 -105

+2.5 -106

The Bears continue to play with fire, owning a 7-3 SU record despite an average MoV of -0.6 points. All but one of those seven victories have come in one-score games, with five decided by five points or less. Regression is catching the L Train to Soldier Field this Sunday. Pittsburgh’s defense can give Chicago a taste of its own medicine in Week 12. The Bears have thrived on takeaways to keep the team afloat, which has been the Steelers’ specialty for years. Mike Tomlin’s unit has looked much stronger the past three games, sitting No. 6 in EPA per play while collecting eight takeaways and 11 sacks. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has faced the 10th highest pressure rate per dropback, leads the league in hurries suffered (48), and ranks fourth in pressured throws. His 44.7% completion rate under duress is 33rd among all QBs.

Score a Touchdown

Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +120)

Projection 0.64 (Yes)

Best Odds

+120

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

+120

-110

+115

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a substantial boost in his pass-catching ability over last year's 89.6% rate.. Jaylen Warren ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an outstanding 0.10 per game.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).. The Bears defense has been torched for the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to running backs: 0.30 per game this year.

+120 at DraftKings

Receptions Made

Darnell Washington o2.5 Receptions Made (+138)

Projection 2.83 (Over)

Best Odds

o2.5 +138

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o2.5 +138

o2.5 +122

o2.5 +115

o2.5 +123

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Darnell Washington's 19.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 10.0.. Darnell Washington's receiving performance has been refined this year, totaling 2.6 adjusted catches vs just 1.5 last year.. This year, the deficient Bears pass defense has been torched for a massive 86.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL.. The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.

+138 at DraftKings

Passing Completions

Caleb Williams u20.5 Passing Completions (-135)

Projection 17.78 (Under)

Best Odds

u20.5 -135

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u19.5 -124

u19.5 -114

u20.5 -135

u19.5 -112

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Steelers cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

-135 at BetMGM

Passing Attempts

Caleb Williams u32.5 Passing Attempts (-106)

Projection 30.17 (Under)

Best Odds

u33.5 -130

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u32.5 -106

u33.5 -130

u32.5 -125

u32.5 -108

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

-130 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Caleb Williams u222.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 195.72 (Under)

Best Odds

u222.5 -113

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u222.5 -113

u219.5 -114

u220.5 -115

u220.5 -114

-113 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Darnell Washington o21.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Projection 30.77 (Over)

Best Odds

o20.5 -120

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o21.5 -109

o21.5 -114

o21.5 -110

o20.5 -120

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. After averaging 7.0 air yards per game last season, Darnell Washington has produced significantly more this season, currently boasting 15.0 per game.. Darnell Washington's 19.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 10.0.. Darnell Washington's 31.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year conveys a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 15.0 figure.. The Bears defense has surrendered the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (63.0) to TEs this year.

-120 at Caesars

Receiving Yards

D'Andre Swift o11.5 Receiving Yards (-107)

Projection 18.19 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 7 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o11.5 -114

o12.5 -110

o11.5 -115

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. The Chicago Bears have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: most in the league.. The model projects D'Andre Swift to notch 3.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.. With an impressive 11.4% Target% (86th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks among the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the league.

-107 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf o48.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Projection 58.01 (Over)

Best Odds

o48.5 -113

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o48.5 -113

o48.5 -114

o54.5 -110

o48.5 -114

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. With an impressive 94.1% Route% (94th percentile) this year, DK Metcalf stands as one of the WRs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, DK Metcalf is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 86th percentile among WRs with 7.7 targets.. This year, the poor Bears defense has allowed a whopping 159.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-worst in the league.. This year, the porous Bears defense has surrendered the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a monstrous 9.80 yards.

-113 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

D'Andre Swift u60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 57.32 (Under)

Best Odds

u60.5 -115

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u57.5 -110

u59.5 -114

u60.5 -115

u59.5 -115

With an atrocious tally of 2.61 yards after contact (20th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks as one of the least powerful running backs in the NFL.. The Steelers defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.19 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).. The Pittsburgh defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

-115 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

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61% picking Chicago

39% 39%

61% 61%

Total Picks PIT 300, CHI 469

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Top User Picks

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'stom5900' is picking Chicago to cover (-1.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-0-0) and +8750 units on the season.

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'stom5900' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-0-0) and +8750 units on the season.

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'Skater4Life' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (45.0)

Skater4Life is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Skater4Life' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+2.5)

Skater4Life is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' is picking Chicago to cover (-1.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +6900 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +6900 units on the season.

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'Kansas2014' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (45.0)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'Kansas2014' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'Mod2323' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+1.5)

Mod2323 is #4 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Mod2323' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

Mod2323 is #4 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Bazooks813973' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (45.0)

Bazooks813973 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-3-0) and +5180 units on the season.

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'Bazooks813973' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

Bazooks813973 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-3-0) and +5180 units on the season.

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'1003008gl' is picking Chicago to cover (-1.5)

1003008gl is #5 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'1003008gl' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

1003008gl is #5 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'jenjay23' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Over (45.0)

jenjay23 is #6 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'jenjay23' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+2.5)

jenjay23 is #6 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'bobalten5000' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

bobalten5000 is #7 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4500 units on the season.

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'RAZORAZE283' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Over (45.5)

RAZORAZE283 is #7 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'BradytheK9' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Over (46.0)

BradytheK9 is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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