Pittsburgh Steelers

1st in AFC North (6 - 5 - 0)

Next Game

BUFBuffalo Buffalo
at
Pittsburgh PITPittsburgh
Sun, Nov 30 16:25 ET

BUF @ PIT Picks

NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Kenneth Gainwell logo Kenneth Gainwell Score a Touchdown (Yes: +230)
Best Odds
 +230 DraftKings
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +230
 +230
 +230
 -
 +225

Jaylen Warren is still the starter, but Kenneth Gainwell has been cutting into his workload. He’s played roughly half the snaps for two straight weeks and actually out-rushed Warren 92–68 last week on eight fewer carries. There shouldn’t be a 100-point gap between their TD prices in this matchup. Buffalo’s run defense is shaky, and I keep thinking back to the Tampa game where Sean Tucker gashed them with ease. With Pittsburgh’s quarterback banged up, both backs can put up numbers, but the value sits with Gainwell. Over the last three games, he has twice as many inside-the-10 carries as Warren.

Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen o28.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
o28.5 -113 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o28.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o28.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o28.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o28.5  -115
These are quick bet odds

Allen has used his legs to take a chunk out of blitz-happy opponents more than a few times this season. He’s played eight games against teams in the Top 10 in blitz rate, topping 30 yards rushing in six of those outings and averaging more than 36 yards rushing per contest.

Read Full Analysis
Score a Touchdown
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)
Projection 0.55 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +145 DraftKings
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 +145
 +115
 +140
 -
 +135
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.
+145 at DraftKings
Receptions Made
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o1.5 Receptions Made (-102)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 -102 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o1.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
o1.5  -102
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  -106
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 78th percentile among running backs with 3.0 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. With a fantastic 2.3 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.
-102 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Receptions Made
Jonnu Smith logo
Jonnu Smith o2.5 Receptions Made (+154)
Projection 2.67 (Over)
Best Odds
o1.5 -186 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o1.5  -186
These are quick bet odds
 -
o2.5  +154
These are quick bet odds
o2.5  +150
These are quick bet odds
o2.5  +143
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. The Bills linebackers project as the 9th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
-186 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Completions
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u21.5 Passing Completions (-105)
Projection 19.43 (Under)
Best Odds
u21.5 -105 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u20.5  +102
These are quick bet odds
 -
u20.5  -102
These are quick bet odds
u21.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
u20.5  +106
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.. The projections expect the Bills to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.7 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
-105 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Passing Attempts
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o30.5 Passing Attempts (-113)
Projection 33.57 (Over)
Best Odds
o30.5 -113 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o30.5  -125
These are quick bet odds
 -
o30.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -130
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -121
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
-113 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o199.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Projection 227.86 (Over)
Best Odds
o199.5 -113 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o199.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o201.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o203.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o201.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
-113 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u233.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 213.18 (Under)
Best Odds
u237.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
u233.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u237.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u234.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u235.5  -122
These are quick bet odds
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.. The projections expect the Bills to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.7 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+106)
Projection 0.42 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +106 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
u0.5  +106
These are quick bet odds
 -
u0.5  -102
u0.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  -108
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.. The projections expect the Bills to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.7 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
+106 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jonnu Smith logo
Jonnu Smith o16.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
Projection 26.13 (Over)
Best Odds
o15.5 -116 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o15.5  -116
These are quick bet odds
 -
o16.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o16.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
o16.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. The Bills linebackers project as the 9th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
-116 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o6.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 16.4 (Over)
Best Odds
o6.5 -110 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o9.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
 -
o8.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o6.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o8.5  -109
These are quick bet odds
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 79th percentile among running backs with 3.0 targets.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.. With an impressive 17.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (79th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the best running backs in the pass game in the NFL.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.
-110 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

65% picking Buffalo

65%
35%

Total Picks BUF 459, PIT 246

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'stom5900' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +8700 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Total

'stom5900' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +8700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Spread

'saintsnola15' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

saintsnola15 is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4970 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Total

'saintsnola15' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

saintsnola15 is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4970 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Spread

'bigsmoke21169' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +6850 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Spread

'charro23' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

charro23 is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5470 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Total

'charro23' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

charro23 is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5470 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Total

'bigsmoke21169' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +6850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Total

'Kansas2014' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Spread

'gokou31' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

gokou31 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Spread

'Kansas2014' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Spread

'livelywee55' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

livelywee55 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5400 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Spread

'oline75' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.0)

oline75 is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Total

'oline75' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (45.5)

oline75 is #5 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Spread

'BetoCM' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.5)

BetoCM is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4350 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Total

'BetoCM' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

BetoCM is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Spread

'RAZORAZE283' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+3.0)

RAZORAZE283 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5350 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Total

'RAZORAZE283' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.0)

RAZORAZE283 is #6 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Spread

'midsro49' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+4.5)

midsro49 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4200 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Total

'midsro49' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

midsro49 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +4200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Total

'bugsy1958' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

bugsy1958 is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Spread

'bugsy1958' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

bugsy1958 is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Spread

'bluorch158' is picking Buffalo to cover (-4.5)

bluorch158 is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4020 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101
Total

'bluorch158' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Over (47.5)

bluorch158 is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4020 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Total

'Bazooks813973' picks Buffalo vs Pittsburgh to go Under (47.5)

Bazooks813973 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +5130 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -101
46 -112
Spread

'Bazooks813973' is picking Buffalo to cover (-3.5)

Bazooks813973 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-4-0) and +5130 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
PIT
Spread
-2.5 -125
+3.0 -101

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