Pittsburgh Steelers

Picks

Likely led Baltimore’s tight ends with 53 snaps in last week’s win over Green Bay and drew three targets for three catches and 27 yards. He also had a good game in his last matchup with the Steelers back in Week 14, snatching four of six passes his way (second most targets) for 25 yards and a touchdown. Pittsburgh has been picked on by TEs this season, giving up the third most receptions and fourth most receiving yards to the position while watching opposing tight ends score 11 touchdowns (tied for third most in the NFL). For what it’s worth, Likely has played in seven regular season matchups with the Steelers during his pro career and has four total touchdowns in those games. That’s 27% of his career 15 TDs coming versus this AFC North foe.

With the Pittsburgh passing game down some key receivers, the Steelers will lean on the ground attack while also hoping to squeeze some receptions from the running backs in Week 18. Warren can do it all and enters the season finale with eight total touchdowns on the year – six rushing and two receiving. One of those TD catches came against Baltimore in Week 14, with the Ravens allowing the third most receptions to RBs this year. While backfield buddy Kenneth Gainwell does eat into Warren’s touches, especially when it comes to passing plays, he continues to get the red zone carries. Warren is also a threat to explode for a huge run, as he showed with two 45-yard touchdown sprints against Detroit in Week 16.

Zay Flowers is the Ravens best receiver by a wide margin. The speedster leads the team in targets (112), receptions (82) and receiving yards (1078). The O/U for his receiving yards is set at 60.5, a number he has surpassed in 11 of 16 games this season. The Steelers are 27th in the league in receiving yards allowed to WRs. When these teams previously clashed last month, Flowers reeled in eight of 11 targets for 124 yards. The Ravens have been heavily reliant on Derrick Henry over the last month but with Pittsburgh stacking the box to stop the run, expect Flowers to find openings downfield. 

The majority of Aaron Rodgers' passes have been underneath throws to running backs and tight ends. That could be even more prominent in this game with Pittsburgh's top deep threat D.K. Metcalf serving a suspension. Baltimore is 26th in the league in pass DVOA against running backs and has allowed the third-most receptions per game (5.1) to the position. RB Kenneth Gainwell leads the Steelers with 65 receptions this year. He was limited to three catches last week but had eclipsed 4.5 receptions in five of the previous six games.

Since Pittsburgh's bye in Week 5, Aaron Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in eight of 11 games. He's also eclipsed this number in each of his last four contests, including a Week 14 clash at Baltimore when he completed 23 of 34 passes for 284 yards. Baltimore's defense has been a passing funnel with the Ravens 28th in the league in completions allowed per game (23.0). The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs which implies a passing game script and while the temperature will be freezing, there will be clear skies with barely any wind.

Gainwell has been a big part of this passing game in the second half of the season and steps up in terms of target priority with Metcalf suspended and Darnell Washington out, and Calvin Austin banged up. Rodgers has thrown to the RB six or more times in five of the last seven games, with Gainwell recording five or more receptions in five of those games. That includes six grabs on seven balls his way vs Baltimore. Projections for Week 18 range from 4.4 to 5 catches. Some other books asking -114 on the same Over.

With the season on the line, Pittsburgh may be forced to get creative, especially in the red zone where a lack of imagination arguably cost them last week. Without DK Metcalf, the Steelers are thin on true scoring threats, which opens the door for Arthur Smith to involve Connor Heyward in short-yardage situations. Heyward had two carries for 26 yards last week and could also see targets if Darnell Washington is limited. He scored in Week 15 on a goal-line carry and has six rushing attempts over the last three games. Since that week, he’s the only Steeler to score on a rush from inside the five. It’s a long shot, but after how ugly this offense looked, a creative wrinkle wouldn’t be surprising.

Gainwell's drawn six or more targets in five of the past seven games, while reeling in at least five receptions in five of those outings. Gainwell has posted receiving efforts of 30-plus yards in four of those contests. Pittsburgh enters Week 18 missing star WR D.K. Metcalf (suspended) and big-bodied TE Darnell Washington (broken arm), and could also have a limited WR Calvin Austin, who is nursing a hamstring ailment. That’s three of the Steelers’ top five receiving threats. Add in the fact the Ravens’ defense has allowed the fourth most receiving yards to running backs and many Week 18 projections calling for 30-plus receiving yards from Gainwell – with a ceiling of 41.5 – and I like him to go Over his receiving prop of the eighth time in the last 10 games.