Pittsburgh Steelers

Picks

Rodgers rarely throws the ball downfield but has destroyed Cover 2 this year and the Dolphins run a ton of that. 

The Dolphins have anchored their offense to Achane in the second half of the schedule. Miami is running at one of the highest rates and this rushing game jumped from a below-average ground attack to the second-best rushing offense in EPA per play and success rate per carry since Week 10. He’s scored four total touchdowns during that four-game span, including each of the past two games. His current ATTD priced of -120 is one of the lowest asks for a Achane touchdown all season, with this prop sitting around -150 over the past month. He’s a threat to run it in for six points or be on the receiving end of a TD pass, with seven rushing scores and four touchdown receptions so far in 2025. 

Pittsburgh has given up the seventh most receptions to tight ends so far in 2025 (amounting to the eighth most yards to TEs) and runs man coverage almost exclusively. That could benefit Tua, who sees a significant split versus man and zone schemes. Tagovailoa is Top 6 quarterback in terms of completion percentage and passer rating against man coverage and wouldn’t you know it: Waller thrives versus one-on-one schemes. He’s rating among the best TEs against man at PFF (No. 6) – a stark contrast to his output against zone coverage. He’s run routes on 68% of his snaps and with an extra day to heal and scheme, I expect Waller to haul in at least three balls. Projections for the Fins TE all sit about 2.5 catches with models ranging from 2.7 to 3.3 receptions on Monday night.

Gainwell has been the more consistent of the two RBs, especially as a receiver. Gainwell has earned Aaron Rodgers’ trust, drawing six or more targets in three of the past four games. He’s recorded more than 20 yards receiving in all four of those outings. The Dolphins’ defense has tightened its belt during the team’s turnaround but has shown a soft spot against dual-threat running backs. Miami has allowed the ninth most receiving yards to rival RBs despite allowing a total of only 58 receptions – an average of almost eight yards per catch from opposing RBs. Monday night models for Gainwell range between 18 and 27 receiving yards with the majority of projections at 22 yards or higher. 

Betting the Over on Tua Tagovailoa’s interception prop sets up well this week, and the cold-weather angle is very real. Tua is 1-8 in games with kickoff temperatures of 46°F or colder, with Miami averaging just 16.4 points. It’ll be around 20 degrees in Pittsburgh on Monday night. In sub-40 games, he’s thrown eight TDs and nine INTs, with his completion rate dropping from 68% to 58% and yards per attempt falling from 8.2 to 6.1. Miami’s run-heavy approach may not hold if De’Von Achane remains limited or the game script forces more passing. Deep shots are risky for him, as he ranks 28th in deep-ball accuracy and sits second in interceptable passes. If Miami throws more, a turnover is very live.

The Dolphins have been running the ball well of late, but De'Von Achane’s rib injury is concerning and his practice reps are in question. If I’m pivoting on an offense that has scored over 100 points across its last four wins, I’m taking the first read in the passing game at a fair +200. Waddle has six touchdowns this season and has gone more than one game without a score only once. He even saw a 21-yard rushing attempt last week and could take on more ground work if Achane sits, especially in a cold-weather game where moving the ball could be tougher. He’s their second-best weapon and could become the focal point if Achane is out.

Achane has powered this Miami attack during this streak, with the Dolphins handing off at the highest rate in the league the past three games. That’s keep gains short and the clock ticking, translating into a healthy chunk of TOP for the Fins. The Dolphins will go run-heavy again on Monday, especially if conditions stink, as to keep the heat from QB Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh brings blitz at a Top 5 rate and is among the leaders in sacks and QB hits. The Steelers attack has lacked explosive plays with Aaron Rodgers under center. He enters Week 15 with the second lowest intended air yards per attempt among qualified QBs and the offense has the sixth fewest completions of 20 yards or more – just behind the Dolphins.