Pittsburgh Steelers

Picks

No team in the NFL has attempted more field goals than the Texans, averaging over three FGAs per game. Houston’s offense is much more efficient at home compared to on the road, converting on less than 34% of third down attempts and scoring touchdowns on just 45.45% of its red zone trips as a visitor. Fairbairn has recorded eight or more points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including each of the past nine contests. While he sees a spike in scoring inside NRG Stadium, he still averages 8.3 kicking points on the road. Monday’s game at Acrisure Stadium will present mild weather, considering the time of year. Temperatures will hover around freezing with sustained winds at 8 mph and gusts flirting with 20 mph at times. 

Chubb was losing snaps to fellow RB Jawhar Jordan over the past month but with Jordon ruled out for the Wild Card Round (ankle), the veteran rusher jumps back up the depth chart and faces a familiar foe in the Steelers. He’s still running behind RB1 Woody Marks, but Chubb will be more active in the offense Monday. He drew only one carry in both Week 15 and Week 17 before going for 33 yards on six attempts versus Las Vegas in Week 16. Chubb will also have fresher legs after sitting out as a healthy scratch in Week 18. Houston has seen an uptick in handoffs over the past three games and with Pittsburgh bringing blitz and plenty of pressure, the Texans will utilize the ground game to take the heat of QB C.J. Stroud. Player projections vary after the injury update to Jordan, but those forecasts folding in the shift in the backfield peg Chub for 20+ yards with a ceiling at 30 yards.

The market is telling the story here. This passing total has dropped as low as 226.5, with THE BLITZ projecting just 205 yards after being lined at 230.5 and 227.5 at home earlier this season indoors vs. the Cardinals and Raiders. This is an indoor QB now heading outdoors in cold conditions, where his numbers fall off a cliff. CJ Stroud’s splits are stark. Outdoors, over his career, he averages just 199.6 yards per game, and only 214 yards on the road compared to 259 at home. This season, his completion rate drops from 66% to 61% and his passer rating from 101.4 to 85.5. Houston could also lean run-heavy if they control the game flow.

Schultz ranks second in RZ targets for the Texans and the Steelers have given up 11 touchdowns to TEs.

Nico Collins was out last week when Higgins cashed at +195, but even with Collins back in the lineup in Week 17, Higgins still found the end zone at +380. He has now scored in five of his 11 games since Week 8, quietly carving out a consistent role. The volume isn’t eye-popping, and he likely won’t see more than four or five targets, but his value comes near the goal line and stretching the field. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, the coaching staff clearly trusts his catch radius and ability to win in tight spaces. That matters against a Pittsburgh secondary that was leaking big plays late in the season and ranks among the worst units in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. Higgins can beat this defense vertically or win a one-on-one in close. Even as the potential No.3 option, this price is playable to +300.

Stroud is going to have a tough time in Pittsburgh. He doesn’t like the outdoors, especially the cold, and while this offensive line has been better, we’re comparing it to the last couple years. That’s like comparing pee to poop. The Steelers’ bread and butter is chaos and bringing blitz, which will limit Stroud’s time in the pocket and force him to scramble. All projections consulted sit at 13 yards and up.

Despite how it got in, Pittsburgh is in. And hosting a Houston team in one of the toughest venues in all of sports. Acrisure Stadium will undoubtedly be loud and cold, with temperatures that “feel like” sub-freezing Monday night. The Texans are all about that defense, entering the postseason with the top ranked stop unit in the land. But in order to cover the spread, you need to put some points on the board. That’s been challenging for C.J. Stroud & Co. – at least when venturing into the great outdoors. Houston averages less than 22 points per game in open-air venues and only 19.8 points per road game on the year – a 7.5-point slide compared to its production at home. Stroud is notoriously an “indoor cat”, with his career passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt all taking a nosedive outside. 

The Houston defense is the best unit in this game, and I’m confident Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud can lead the offense to enough points to cover the number Monday night. Stroud ranked 10th in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the seventh-most air yards and a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt across the final six weeks of the regular season, after all. For comparison, Steelers vet Aaron Rogders ranked 19th and 20th in the two metrics while throwing for 6.5 YPA during the same stretch, and now he faces the second-ranked scoring defense in football.