Pittsburgh Steelers Picks

Pick made: 2 days ago

o11.5 -117

o11.5 -118

o12.5 -110

D'Andre Swift has 12+ receiving yards in seven of nine games for 6.4 yards per target and 23 receptions for 210 yards. He also went good for 12 or more receiving yards in 11 of 17 games last season, and he’s only had a lower receiving yards total twice since joining the Bears. With the Steelers blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, I’m anticipating Swift being involved in the passing game as a means to mitigate the Pittsburgh pressure.

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Score a Touchdown

Rome Odunze Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)

Best Odds

+167

Pick made: 3 days ago

+165

+155

+165

+167

There aren’t many markets posted for this matchup, but Chicago’s passing game draws a great spot against a Pittsburgh defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Rome Odunze should be the focal point of the Bears’ offense, especially with D’Andre Swift limited in practice. Odunze has scored in half his games this season and in three of four at home. The Steelers have four DBs out, and Darius Slay is questionable after sitting out last week with a concussion. With limited playable options due to all the offensive injuries, Odunze is the safest angle on the board, and there’s still 10–15 points of cushion in his number.

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PIT +3.0 (-108)

Best Odds

+2.5 -105

Pick made: 5 days ago

+3.0 -115

+2.5 -105

+2.5 -112

+3.0 -125

+3.0 -120

The Bears continue to play with fire, owning a 7-3 SU record despite an average MoV of -0.6 points. All but one of those seven victories have come in one-score games, with five decided by five points or less. Regression is catching the L Train to Soldier Field this Sunday. Pittsburgh’s defense can give Chicago a taste of its own medicine in Week 12. The Bears have thrived on takeaways to keep the team afloat, which has been the Steelers’ specialty for years. Mike Tomlin’s unit has looked much stronger the past three games, sitting No. 6 in EPA per play while collecting eight takeaways and 11 sacks. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has faced the 10th highest pressure rate per dropback, leads the league in hurries suffered (48), and ranks fourth in pressured throws. His 44.7% completion rate under duress is 33rd among all QBs.

Score a Touchdown

Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +110)

Projection 0.67 (Yes)

Best Odds

+110

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

+100

+110

-125

+103

The Steelers will be rolling with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. A passing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a substantial boost in his pass-catching ability over last year's 89.6% rate.. Jaylen Warren ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an outstanding 0.10 per game.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).

+110 at bet365

Passing Completions

Caleb Williams u19.5 Passing Completions (-115)

Projection 17.47 (Under)

Best Odds

u19.5 -115

Pick made: 23 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u19.5 -130

u19.5 -125

u19.5 -115

u19.5 -145

A rushing game script is implied by the Bears being a 3-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Steelers cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

-115 at BetMGM

Passing Attempts

Caleb Williams u33.5 Passing Attempts (-130)

Projection 29.76 (Under)

Best Odds

u33.5 -130

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

u32.5 -111

u33.5 -130

u31.5 -105

u32.5 -120

-130 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Caleb Williams u221.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Projection 193.13 (Under)

Best Odds

u221.5 -111

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u221.5 -111

u217.5 -114

u218.5 -115

u218.5 -118

-111 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Darnell Washington o19.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 29.23 (Over)

Best Odds

o19.5 -118

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o22.5 -112

o19.5 -118

o21.5 -110

o20.5 -122

The Steelers will be rolling with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. A passing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.. After averaging 7.0 air yards per game last season, Darnell Washington has produced significantly more this season, currently boasting 15.0 per game.. Darnell Washington's 19.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 10.0.. Darnell Washington's 31.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year conveys a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 15.0 figure.

-118 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

D'Andre Swift o11.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 17.95 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

o11.5 -117

o11.5 -118

o12.5 -110

At only 28.07 seconds per play, the Chicago Bears offense profiles as the 8th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: most in the league.. The model projects D'Andre Swift to notch 3.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.. With an impressive 11.4% Target% (86th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks among the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the league.. The Chicago O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

-115 at Caesars

Receiving Yards

DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 55.05 (Over)

Best Odds

o49.5 -114

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o51.5 -114

o49.5 -114

o51.5 +105

o50.5 -120

The Steelers will be rolling with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. A passing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.. With an impressive 94.1% Route% (94th percentile) this year, DK Metcalf stands as one of the WRs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, DK Metcalf is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 83rd percentile among WRs with 7.4 targets.. This year, the poor Bears defense has allowed a whopping 159.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-worst in the league.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Rome Odunze u55.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 50.48 (Under)

Best Odds

u55.5 -118

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u54.5 -113

u55.5 -118

u50.5 -115

u54.5 -112

-118 at FanDuel

Rushing Attempts

Mason Rudolph u2.5 Rushing Attempts (+130)

Projection 1.97 (Under)

Best Odds

u2.5 +130

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u2.5 +130

The Steelers will be rolling with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. A passing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 50.9 plays per game.. The predictive model expects Mason Rudolph to total 2.2 carries in this game, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

+130 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Mason Rudolph o6.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Projection 9.18 (Over)

Best Odds

o6.5 -118

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o6.5 -118

The Chicago Bears defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 5.19 adjusted yards-per-carry.

-118 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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'stom5900' is picking Chicago to cover (-1.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-0-0) and +8750 units on the season.

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'stom5900' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

stom5900 is #1 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (10-0-0) and +8750 units on the season.

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'Lttlmac' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

Lttlmac is #1 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (8-1-1) and +5300 units on the season.

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'Lttlmac' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Over (46.5)

Lttlmac is #1 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (8-1-1) and +5300 units on the season.

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'Skater4Life' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (45.0)

Skater4Life is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Skater4Life' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+2.5)

Skater4Life is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' is picking Chicago to cover (-1.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +6900 units on the season.

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'bigsmoke21169' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

bigsmoke21169 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +6900 units on the season.

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'prolinepicks' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

prolinepicks is #2 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'prolinepicks' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

prolinepicks is #2 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'Kansas2014' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (45.0)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'Kansas2014' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'YAL15M' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Over (46.5)

YAL15M is #3 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'YAL15M' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+2.5)

YAL15M is #3 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Mod2323' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+1.5)

Mod2323 is #4 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Mod2323' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

Mod2323 is #4 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Bazooks813973' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (45.0)

Bazooks813973 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-3-0) and +5180 units on the season.

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'Bazooks813973' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

Bazooks813973 is #4 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (5-3-0) and +5180 units on the season.

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'1003008gl' is picking Chicago to cover (-1.5)

1003008gl is #5 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'1003008gl' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

1003008gl is #5 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'jenjay23' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Over (45.0)

jenjay23 is #6 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'jenjay23' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (+2.5)

jenjay23 is #6 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'bobalten5000' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

bobalten5000 is #7 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4500 units on the season.

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'RAZORAZE283' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Over (45.5)

RAZORAZE283 is #7 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'BradytheK9' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Over (46.0)

BradytheK9 is #8 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'Eldominicano33' is picking Chicago to cover (-2.5)

Eldominicano33 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Eldominicano33' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

Eldominicano33 is #9 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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'Insiderone777' picks Pittsburgh vs Chicago to go Under (46.5)

Insiderone777 is #9 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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