Pittsburgh Steelers

Picks

Montgomery has one or fewer catches in eight games this season and in each of the previous two games. It is also likely that the Lions will be playing with the lead for much of this game, and it should remove the need for Montgomery to be in passing situations when he is on the field.    

Gibbs has averaged a league-high 2.4 rushing yards before contact per carry. The Steelers have allowed over a yard before contact per carry in four of their last six games. Gibbs is going to be able to find some open space and may only need to break one tackle to hit this prop.

Rodgers has taken off a few times this year, so it is not unheard of for him to still scramble when needed at his current age, but he has really stopped that down the stretch.

He has finished the game with zero rushing yards in six of the last seven.

The Lions lead the NFL in points per game (30.6) with that number ticking up to 33.7 ppg at home. They will be able to move the ball against Pittsburgh who surrenders 25.4 ppg on the road. The Steelers are 21st in the league in defensive EPA and will likely be missing All-Pro edge T.J. Watt and another top pass rusher in Nick Herbig. Detroit struggled to convert on third down for most of the year, but has improved in that area after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. The Lions are ninth in the league in third-down conversion rate over the last three games (45.7%) while Pittsburgh is just 27th in third-down defense (42.4%).

Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in six of his last nine games and he's coming off back-to-back contests where he logged 23 completions. The Steelers are 7-point underdogs on Sunday, which implies a negative game script with plenty of passing. The Lions are 25th in the league in dropback EPA since Week 9. Their injury-depleted secondary is getting picked apart with Detroit allowing 24.3 completions per game over the last three contests. 

Jaylen Warren was dealing with an illness on Monday night and likely gave up some volume because of it. Kenneth Gainwell finished with 20 touches to Warren’s 15 and made more of his opportunities. Even so, it was still Warren who handled all three running back carries in the red zone. With an extra week to recover, Warren should be in a better spot physically in Week 16 and is positioned to keep that red-zone role in a game carrying the highest total on the board at 52. I wouldn’t play this any lower than +115 to +120.

Gibbs has seen his rushing output tempered by recent games turning into shootouts and running into some stiff defenses. He’s done plenty of damage through the air but with Detroit a touchdown home fave to Pittsburgh, game script says more running for the Lions. The Steelers run stop isn’t great, sitting in the back half of the league in most metrics and giving up about five yards per carry over the past three games. Now they have a short turnaround with travel to Detroit. Gibbs projections flirting with 80 or more yards with a ceiling of 87.