Pittsburgh Steelers
Picks

3rd in AFC North (1 - 1 - 0)

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at

Sun, Sep 21 13:00 ET

PIT @ NE Picks

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PIT -1.0 (-101)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 days ago

I’m anticipating marked improvement on defense from The Black and Golf in Week 3. Pittsburgh allowed the eighth-fewest points per game and ninth-lowest EPA per play while ranking third in PFF defense grade last season, after all.

Passing Yards

Drake Maye o220.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Projection 227.5 (Over)

Best Odds

o220.5 -111

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o220.5 -111

o221.5 -114

o225.5 -115

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have 128.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 10th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (231.0 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the porous Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing squads: a massive 8.25 yards.

-111 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers o221.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 228.1 (Over)

Best Odds

o221.5 -113

Pick made: 35 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o221.5 -113

o224.5 -114

o227.5 -115

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.5 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.. In racking up a colossal 35.2 pass attempts per game since the start of last season, Aaron Rodgers rates among the top quarterbacks in football (81st percentile) in this regard.. The Patriots pass defense has shown weak efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 8.10 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

-113 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Pat Freiermuth o21.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 32.9 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.5 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.. In this game, Pat Freiermuth is projected by the model to land in the 78th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.. With an extraordinary 16.2% Target Rate (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Pat Freiermuth ranks as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.. As it relates to air yards, Pat Freiermuth ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 28.0 per game.

Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry o33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 40.6 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have 128.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to earn 5.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.. In regards to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a remarkable 46.0 per game.

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs o41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 47.8 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 35 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have 128.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. The model projects Stefon Diggs to notch 6.5 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The Steelers pass defense has displayed poor efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.

-115 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Jaylen Warren o50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 65.5 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.5 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the projection model to place in the 89th percentile among running backs with 17.0 rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast Jaylen Warren to be a more important option in his team's running game in this week's contest (62.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (28.8% in games he has played).. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-most adjusted yards in football (127 per game) vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season.

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o28.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 33.3 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have 128.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

Consensus Picks

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67% picking Pittsburgh

67% 67%

33% 33%

Total Picks PIT 477, NE 235

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PIT

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Top User Picks

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Total

'QCAN' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Over (42.5)

QCAN is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'QCAN' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

QCAN is #10 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

NE

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'miacity' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

miacity is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'miacity' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Over (44.0)

miacity is #10 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'heynowtom1' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

heynowtom1 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'heynowtom1' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Under (44.0)

heynowtom1 is #2 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'nfl_brosuf' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Under (44.5)

nfl_brosuf is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'nfl_brosuf' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

nfl_brosuf is #3 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

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'BigBoss19' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

BigBoss19 is #4 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'BigBoss19' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Over (42.5)

BigBoss19 is #4 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'OGScotty' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-1.0)

OGScotty is #7 on picking games that Pittsburgh is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

NE

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'DBM' is picking New England to cover (+1.0)

DBM is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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PIT

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'DBM' picks Pittsburgh vs New England to go Over (42.5)

DBM is #9 on picking games that New England is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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