Pittsburgh Steelers

4th in AFC North (0 - 0 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET

ATL @ PIT Picks

NFL Picks
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o210.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 235.03 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in football.
Rushing Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o38.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 49.22 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Jaylen Warren has averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground last year, one of the biggest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (83rd percentile).. Last year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons run defense has given up a whopping 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 10th-most in football.
Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson logo
Bijan Robinson u76.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 72.34 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense owns the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks last year, conceding just 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Receiving Yards
Drake London logo
Drake London o63.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Projection 73.37 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. In this game, Drake London is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 9.5 targets.. Drake London has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 30.0% last year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Receiving Yards
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Michael Pittman Jr. o39.5 Receiving Yards (-124)
Projection 52.64 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman has run a route on 89.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. In this contest, Michael Pittman is projected by the model to finish in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.. Michael Pittman ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts last year with an astounding 21.3% of his offense's air yards accumulated.
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o15.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Projection 21.22 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 42 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to accumulate 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a sizeable 8.7% Target Share (76th percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.. Jaylen Warren profiles as one of the top pass-game RBs last year, averaging a fantastic 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
Receiving Yards
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pat Freiermuth o24.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Projection 31.83 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Pat Freiermuth is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets.. Pat Freiermuth has received a monstrous 10.8% of his team's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Falcons pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Kyle Pitts Sr. o40.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Projection 48.17 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 40 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 91.4% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Rushing Attempts
Jaylen Warren logo
Jaylen Warren o8.5 Rushing Attempts (-145)
Projection 11.21 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Passing Attempts
Aaron Rodgers logo
Aaron Rodgers o31.5 Passing Attempts (+100)
Projection 34.64 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

62% picking Pittsburgh

38%
62%

Total Picks ATL 172, PIT 279

Spread
ATL
PIT
Total

60% picking Atlanta vs Pittsburgh to go Under

40%
60%

Total PicksATL 99, PIT 149

Total
Over
Under

ATL @ PIT · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
PASSING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o210.5 Passing Yards
235.03 OVER PROJECTION
+24.5 DIFFERENCE
25.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o210.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

235.03 OVER PROJECTION
+24.5 DIFFERENCE
25.46% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in football.

o210.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o38.5 Rushing Yards
49.22 OVER PROJECTION
+10.7 DIFFERENCE
26.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o38.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

49.22 OVER PROJECTION
+10.7 DIFFERENCE
26.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Jaylen Warren has averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground last year, one of the biggest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (83rd percentile).. Last year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons run defense has given up a whopping 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 10th-most in football.

o38.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u76.5 Rushing Yards
72.34 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.2 DIFFERENCE
20.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u76.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

72.34 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.2 DIFFERENCE
20.99% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense owns the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks last year, conceding just 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

u77.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o63.5 Receiving Yards
73.37 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o63.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

73.37 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.8% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. In this game, Drake London is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 9.5 targets.. Drake London has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 30.0% last year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

o60.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) o39.5 Receiving Yards
52.64 OVER PROJECTION
+13.1 DIFFERENCE
25.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) o39.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

52.64 OVER PROJECTION
+13.1 DIFFERENCE
25.53% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman has run a route on 89.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. In this contest, Michael Pittman is projected by the model to finish in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.. Michael Pittman ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts last year with an astounding 21.3% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

o38.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o15.5 Receiving Yards
21.22 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
24.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o15.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

21.22 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
24.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to accumulate 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a sizeable 8.7% Target Share (76th percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.. Jaylen Warren profiles as one of the top pass-game RBs last year, averaging a fantastic 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

o14.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o24.5 Receiving Yards
31.83 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
24.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o24.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

31.83 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
24.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Pat Freiermuth is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets.. Pat Freiermuth has received a monstrous 10.8% of his team's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Falcons pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the NFL.

o24.5 -112
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards
48.17 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
23.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

48.17 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
23.36% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 91.4% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

o40.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o35.5 Receiving Yards
38.11 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
13.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

38.11 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
13.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. With an impressive 73.4% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) last year, Bijan Robinson rates among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in football.. The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to garner 6.5 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

o35.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
14.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
14.73% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 91.4% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Kyle Pitts rates as one of the best TE receiving threats last year, averaging a fantastic 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

o4.5 +125
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.19 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
7.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.19 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
7.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The Atlanta Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.. With a bad 77.7% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) last year, Bijan Robinson places among the worst possession receivers in football among running backs.

u4.5 -127
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.56 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.56 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman has run a route on 89.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. In this contest, Michael Pittman is projected by the model to finish in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.. With an outstanding 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) last year, Michael Pittman ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.

o3.5 -188
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
1.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
1.47% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. In this game, Drake London is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 9.5 targets.. With an outstanding 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) last year, Drake London places among the best WRs in the league in the NFL.

o5.5 +110
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Pat Freiermuth is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets.

o2.5 -122
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
0.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
0.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to accumulate 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a sizeable 8.7% Target Share (76th percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.. Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging a remarkable 2.1 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

o2.5 +102
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o8.5 Rushing Attempts
11.21 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
16.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o8.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

11.21 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
16.88% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

o8.5 -145
Hard Rock Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u18.5 Rushing Attempts
16.88 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
13.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u18.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

16.88 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
13.54% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.

u18.5 -125
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts
34.64 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
19.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.64 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
19.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

o30.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
21.16 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
7.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.16 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
7.52% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.

o20.5 -117
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.96% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. As it relates to air yards, Drake London ranks in the lofty 93rd percentile among WRs last year, accruing a whopping 96.0 per game.. Drake London ranks in the 96th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a superb 73.3 mark last year.

+240
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts last year with an astounding 21.3% of his offense's air yards accumulated.. With a stellar 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate (86th percentile) last year, Michael Pittman has been among the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to wide receivers.. Michael Pittman grades out in the 87th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns last year, averaging a fantastic 0.35 per game.

+280
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Pat Freiermuth has received a monstrous 10.8% of his team's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.

+420
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.65 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.65 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.61% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Bijan Robinson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.6% last year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among RBs.. As it relates to air yards, Bijan Robinson grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs last year, averaging a colossal 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

-140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.14% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 19.0% last year, which ranks in the 86th percentile among TEs.. When it comes to air yards, Kyle Pitts ranks in the towering 98th percentile among TEs last year, accumulating a superb 50.0 per game.

+340
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.56% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. While Jaylen Warren has garnered 56.3% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller part of Pittsburgh's rushing attack near the end zone in this contest at 43.9%.. Jaylen Warren checks in as one of the best possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs, completing an exceptional 95.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 98th percentile.. With an impressive ratio of 0.11 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Jaylen Warren ranks among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to running backs last year.

+155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.01 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.01 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers has not tried to carry the ball himself near the end zone at all last year.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.

+2000
bet365 logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
PASSING YARDS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o210.5 Passing Yards
235.03 OVER PROJECTION
+24.5 DIFFERENCE
25.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o210.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

235.03 OVER PROJECTION
+24.5 DIFFERENCE
25.46% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in football.

o210.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o38.5 Rushing Yards
49.22 OVER PROJECTION
+10.7 DIFFERENCE
26.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o38.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

49.22 OVER PROJECTION
+10.7 DIFFERENCE
26.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Jaylen Warren has averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground last year, one of the biggest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (83rd percentile).. Last year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons run defense has given up a whopping 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 10th-most in football.

o38.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u76.5 Rushing Yards
72.34 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.2 DIFFERENCE
20.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u76.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

72.34 UNDER PROJECTION
-4.2 DIFFERENCE
20.99% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense owns the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks last year, conceding just 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

u77.5 -114
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o63.5 Receiving Yards
73.37 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o63.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

73.37 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.8% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. In this game, Drake London is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 9.5 targets.. Drake London has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 30.0% last year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

o60.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) o39.5 Receiving Yards
52.64 OVER PROJECTION
+13.1 DIFFERENCE
25.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) o39.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

52.64 OVER PROJECTION
+13.1 DIFFERENCE
25.53% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman has run a route on 89.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. In this contest, Michael Pittman is projected by the model to finish in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.. Michael Pittman ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts last year with an astounding 21.3% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

o38.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o15.5 Receiving Yards
21.22 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
24.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o15.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

21.22 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
24.98% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to accumulate 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a sizeable 8.7% Target Share (76th percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.. Jaylen Warren profiles as one of the top pass-game RBs last year, averaging a fantastic 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

o14.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o24.5 Receiving Yards
31.83 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
24.72% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o24.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

31.83 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
24.72% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Pat Freiermuth is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets.. Pat Freiermuth has received a monstrous 10.8% of his team's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Falcons pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the NFL.

o24.5 -112
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards
48.17 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
23.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

48.17 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
23.36% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 91.4% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

o40.5 -120
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o35.5 Receiving Yards
38.11 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
13.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

38.11 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
13.07% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. With an impressive 73.4% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) last year, Bijan Robinson rates among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in football.. The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to garner 6.5 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

o35.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
14.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.77 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
14.73% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 91.4% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Kyle Pitts rates as one of the best TE receiving threats last year, averaging a fantastic 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

o4.5 +125
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.19 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
7.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.19 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
7.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The Atlanta Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.. With a bad 77.7% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) last year, Bijan Robinson places among the worst possession receivers in football among running backs.

u4.5 -127
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.56 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.56 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
2.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman has run a route on 89.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. In this contest, Michael Pittman is projected by the model to finish in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.. With an outstanding 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) last year, Michael Pittman ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.

o3.5 -188
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made
5.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
1.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) o5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.65 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
1.47% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. In this game, Drake London is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 9.5 targets.. With an outstanding 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) last year, Drake London places among the best WRs in the league in the NFL.

o5.5 +110
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
1.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Pat Freiermuth is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets.

o2.5 -122
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
0.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
0.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to accumulate 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a sizeable 8.7% Target Share (76th percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.. Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging a remarkable 2.1 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

o2.5 +102
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o8.5 Rushing Attempts
11.21 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
16.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) o8.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

11.21 OVER PROJECTION
+2.7 DIFFERENCE
16.88% EV

ANALYSIS

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

o8.5 -145
Hard Rock Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u18.5 Rushing Attempts
16.88 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
13.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) u18.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

16.88 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
13.54% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.

u18.5 -125
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts
34.64 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
19.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.64 OVER PROJECTION
+3.1 DIFFERENCE
19.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

o30.5 -115
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PASSING COMPLETIONS
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
21.16 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
7.52% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.16 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
7.52% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.

o20.5 -117
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Drake London logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
D. London (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.44 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.96% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. As it relates to air yards, Drake London ranks in the lofty 93rd percentile among WRs last year, accruing a whopping 96.0 per game.. Drake London ranks in the 96th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a superb 73.3 mark last year.

+240
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Michael Pittman Jr. logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
M. Pittman Jr. (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts last year with an astounding 21.3% of his offense's air yards accumulated.. With a stellar 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate (86th percentile) last year, Michael Pittman has been among the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to wide receivers.. Michael Pittman grades out in the 87th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns last year, averaging a fantastic 0.35 per game.

+280
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Pat Freiermuth logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
P. Freiermuth (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Pat Freiermuth has received a monstrous 10.8% of his team's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.

+420
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.65 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bijan Robinson logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
B. Robinson (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.65 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.61% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Bijan Robinson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.6% last year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among RBs.. As it relates to air yards, Bijan Robinson grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs last year, averaging a colossal 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

-140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail
K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.14% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 19.0% last year, which ranks in the 86th percentile among TEs.. When it comes to air yards, Kyle Pitts ranks in the towering 98th percentile among TEs last year, accumulating a superb 50.0 per game.

+340
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jaylen Warren logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
J. Warren (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.46 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.56% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. While Jaylen Warren has garnered 56.3% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller part of Pittsburgh's rushing attack near the end zone in this contest at 43.9%.. Jaylen Warren checks in as one of the best possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs, completing an exceptional 95.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 98th percentile.. With an impressive ratio of 0.11 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Jaylen Warren ranks among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to running backs last year.

+155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.01 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Rodgers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers image thumbnail
A. Rodgers (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.01 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers has not tried to carry the ball himself near the end zone at all last year.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.

+2000
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