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Best NFL Picks Today

Find the best NFL bets today - Oct. 5, 2026. Free expert and computer picks for every NFL game.

New Computer Picks powered by Odds Shark

Predicted Score

ATL logo
ATL
ATL

23.90 @ 23.05

NO
NO logo
NO

Falcons vs Saints · Prediction & Game Odds

Team

Predicted Score

Spread

Total

ML

ATL logo
ATL
ATL

23.90

+2.5 -115

o47.5 -109

+112

NO logo
NO
NO

23.05

-2.5 -105

u48.5 -115

-125

Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail ATL @ New Orleans Saints image thumbnail NO Mon, Oct 5 • 8:15 PM ET
Interceptions Thrown
Tyler Shough logo Tyler Shough o0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Shough has thrown on almost 64% of snaps, connecting for eight touchdowns but also three interceptions. And with the rushing game missing key pieces, the Saints will need him to shoulder the offensive load again Monday. Shough faces a sneaky good Falcons pass defense. Atlanta is generating solid pressure on the passer without blitzing much, ranked No. 3 in pass rush win rate at ESPN and 11th in pressure per dropback. Shough ranks No. 5 at PFF when kept clean but that metric sinks to 26th when pressured. Adding to those woes is an offensive line missing pieces and rating 23rd in pass block win rate. He will be hurried into bad throws and many interception projections points toward at least one INT from NOLA’s second-year QB.

Receptions Made
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo Kyle Pitts Sr. o2.5 Receptions Made (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Falcons tight end has just two receptions on six targets for 20 yards through three games, including going 1 for 2 for five yards with QB Michael Penix Jr. under center last Thursday. New Orleans has struggled against rival tight ends to start the season, allowing the third most receptions and third most yards to the position. That mismatch is amplified by injures to NOLA’s linebacker corps, including top coverage LBs Carl Granderson and Pete Werner. Pitts’ reception props have dropped from 4.5 in Week 1 and now 3+ is offering a solid return. His Week 4 projections all sit north of three catches with a ceiling of 4.1. My number boils down to 3.6 catches from the Falcons TE.

View 20 Picks
Houston Texans image thumbnail HOU @ Tennessee Titans image thumbnail TEN Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Spread
Houston Texans image thumbnail HOU -6.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Tennessee Titans present a significant step down in competition considering the Texans have walked through fire in the first four weeks, facing the likes of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.  The defense isn’t living up to its top billing in the preseason, having allowed a ton of points, but the Titans don’t push back as much as those previous foes. Tennessee is 25th in yards per play and 29th in first downs. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans is very familiar with Titans new head coach Robert Saleh, going back to their days in San Francisco. He beat Saleh’s defense last season with a 26-15 home win over the 49ers in which the Texans totals 475 yards of offense.

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Chicago Bears image thumbnail CHI @ Green Bay Packers image thumbnail GB Sun, Oct 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Total
Chicago Bears image thumbnail Green Bay Packers image thumbnail o43.5 (-118)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

With QB2 Tyler Bagent getting the call in place of the injured Caleb Williams this week, Chicago rolled to 34 first downs and almost 500 total yards. Yet, it scored just 23 points in the win over the New York Jets, finishing 2 for 7 in the red zone.

Even with Williams sidelined the past two outings (and he’ll likely still be in Week 5), Ben Johnson has schemed up excellent game plans that have produced 867 collective yards under the guidance of backup QBs. As for the Green Bay Packers, they’re coming off a fugly road win in Tampa Bay this weekend. The Packers’ defense isn’t great despite facing backup QBs in two of their first four games (while also playing a returning Michael Penix Jr. in his first start back from an ACL). We’re seeing some movement to 44 and 44.5 points for this total. If you like the Over in this NFC North rivalry, take it now short of the key numbers of 44 and 45.

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For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.

The table above, below the game picks, tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections, based on $100 unit size. We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.

How to Use NFL Computer Picks

The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call ailing the computer." But there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.

You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks, which can be found above the selections for some matchups, recent NFL betting trends, and more.

As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.

Or, if you want to implement a system, betting only on underdogs, for example, you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.

We have these computer picks for every sport you're looking to wager on, as well:

Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark

Moneyline

NFL moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.

For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total, if they win the game. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.

We have a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.

Spread

While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.

To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.

There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.

You can read more about NFL spreads here.

Totals (Over/Under)

If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.

As opposed to taking a side, in total or Over/Under betting, you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (Over) or less than (Under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.

The computer picks, and your handicapping of totals is more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.

More NFL Picks & Betting Tools

Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:

Best Football Betting Sites

If you’re ready to bet on NFL picks, you first need to find the right sportsbook. Our NFL betting sites guide offers secure banking, the best odds, bonuses, and reliable customer service options for you.

NFL Free Picks FAQs

When do we release our NFL picks?

Covers NFL picks are released two to three days before each game on the NFL schedule.

What kinds of NFL picks do we make?

Covers provides free NFL picks covering many markets, including point spreads, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.