Best NFL Picks Today

I can get behind DK Metcalf at 2.7x, but when Germie Bernard has Aaron Rodgers' trust, is seeing double-digit targets, and is 60 points longer, I'll take the rookie who caught the game-winning touchdown last week. I have him at a fair price of 3x in an indoor matchup against a defense allowing the fourth-most TDs per game (3.5). The Steelers can put up points Sunday, and they can do it through the air. This offense is passing at the second-highest rate in football (67% DB%) and owns the fifth-highest PROE. Even if Bernard isn't getting downfield, that might actually be a good thing in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.

Target Jefferson for a TD here with Gardner expected to be sidelined for an overmatched Colts secondary. The Vikings’ No.1 receiver already has three scores this season, and Indy gave up a combined six passing touchdowns in road losses to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.

Miami has been dreadful offensively, averaging just 14.0 PPG, while its defense is surrendering 2.75 points per drive. With Geno Smith facing little resistance through the air and New York boasting a solid defensive unit, I like the Jets to cover at home.

I have the fair price at 4x for what should be the No. 3 wide receiver role at home against the Bengals. Lane looked great in his return to the lineup last week, playing 87% of the snaps in 3-WR sets and seeing five targets. The Rashod Bateman injury shouldn't impact his role, as it was Devontez Walker who picked up those snaps in heavier sets. This offense could use a spark after an ugly loss, and Lane was a preseason standout who already has three red-zone targets on just eight total targets. This TD play looks even better if Lamar Jackson can return.

In a matchup where the smallest margins could ultimately decide the outcome, finding even the slightest edge is crucial. And when it comes to the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, that edge lies on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland's defense has quietly been a bright spot this season, ranking 13th in defensive EPA per play, while Tennessee sits a lowly 23rd. The Browns simply have the stronger unit, surrendering just 20 points per game while boasting the NFL's fifth-best red-zone defense; opponents are converting only 43% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. I'm all over the Browns here - Cam Ward and his struggling offense are going to have a difficult time moving the ball between the 20s and ultimately finding the end zone.

The Buccaneers’ luck could change this Sunday, starting with Baker Mayfield making progress in his return from a thumb injury. He was back on the practice field ahead of Sunday’s road clash with the Carolina Panthers. Another less-Swedish proverb is “defense travels”. That’s a good thing for Tampa, considering its stop unit has quietly crept up the defensive metrics and sits Top 10 in sexy stats like EPA allowed, opponent success rate and Defensive DVOA. The Panthers’ three wins have come against teams either starting a backup QB (Atlanta) or fielding a dreadful defense (Detroit) - or both (Philadelphia). This is a massive matchup for Todd Bowles and the half-point hook on the field goal seems too much for a divisional rivalry.

Robinson is a workhorse for Atlanta and could see an even bigger snap share with fellow RB Brian Robinson Jr. dealing with a hamstring injury. Bijan also faces a 49ers defense that allows the second most receiving yards to running backs. Week 7 projections for Robinson’s receiving output all sit north of 30 yards with a ceiling of 39. My number comes out to 33+ receiving yards.

I'm going back to an old favorite in Week 7, backing Isaiah Likely to score at a fair price of 3x. There's some uncertainty with the move to J.J. McCarthy, who targeted Likely on three of his 17 passes in Week 6, but the New York TE is the second-most targeted player at his position and was 100 points shorter last week. The Texans' defense is more legit than the Saints', but Week 7 is indoors, and Houston has allowed 90 points at home in three games. The Texans are also returning from London with four defensive starters questionable to begin the practice week. Likely has five TDs on the year and leads all New York pass-catchers in red-zone targets.

A rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Right now, the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (40.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Broncos.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 130.4 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.. The predictive model expects J.K. Dobbins to total 16.1 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.. This year, the anemic Cardinals run defense has given up a massive 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 9th-worst in football.

The Raiders have picked up their passing in the last three outings, dropping back on more than 67% of snaps. That’s comparable to the Rams’ passing play percentage, which sits at 67.8% in their last three showings. Both offenses play with pace, sitting Top 8 in quickness in terms of play clock used per snap. The Rams and Raiders are also comfortable turning up the intensity with higher rates of no-huddle used, both sitting in the Top 10 in hurry-up usage. The last four games for the Silver and Black have been absolute shootouts, topping the total in each outing. Before Sunday’s dud against Arizona, L.A. had gone Over the number in three straight showings.

Despite scoring a single first-quarter touchdown through five games, the Lions are still tied for the most points per game (32.8) and the second-most points per drive (3.09). The extra time to prepare following a Week 6 bye has the Lions positioned to start on time Sunday, and I recommend this first-half spread to 56%.

The Chiefs haven't faced the toughest schedule lately, with their last four opponents combining to go 4-18 SU this season. Mahomes hasn't needed to use his legs much, but Sunday night's matchup against Seattle should create more passing opportunities and a more neutral game script for a team with one of the lowest dropback rates in football. His rushing market has fallen, yet he's topped this number in 60% of his games, even with a healthy dose of kneel-downs eating into his totals during victories. He projects for 23 rushing yards, with a fair probability of 59% to reach 15+. I can picture it now: third-and-short, play-action to Kenneth Walker, and Mahomes busts a big gain on the bootleg.

McKee was solid in last Sunday’s start and has an easy matchup against this Dallas defense. Not only does he have a downfield threat in Smith, but he has a capable pass-catching RB in Barkley and a steady-handed TE in Dallas Goedert. The Cowboys average 1.8 passing touchdowns against and their red zone defense has allowed TDs on 66.7% of their opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line.