There are several Seahawks playmakers who could get in on the scoring action against a terrible 49ers defense. One of those guys is WR Cooper Kupp who has just two TDs this season but is getting opportunities. Kupp was targeted 12 times in the red zone during the regular season with eight of those coming in the final six weeks after Tory Horton suffered a season-ending injury. The veteran is a reliable route-runner with sticky hands and his experience is invaluable on a young team. That could make Sam Darnold look his way with the Niners defense focused on Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
If the 49ers are going to score against an elite Seattle defense, there's a good chance it will be via Christian McCaffrey. The Pro Bowl RB is a dual-threat that can score on the ground and through the air. He has logged an incredible 98 red-zone touches this season (74 carries and 20 receptions), leading to 17 total touchdowns. C-Mac punched the ball into the endzone twice against Philadelphia last week and has scored a TD in seven of his last eight games.
Sam Darnold popped up on Thursday's injury report with an oblique injury that he felt when throwing in routes on air. He'll definitely play but I doubt Seattle will push the ball downfield, especially with Darnold's history of melting down in big games. Keep in mind that Darnold threw for less than 200 yards in the final two games of the regular season and had just 150 passing yards against San Fran in Week 1. The Seahawks had the third-lowest passing rate in the NFL and played at the sixth-slowest tempo. Expect them to lean on their defense and ground game, resulting in Darnold going below his passing yards prop.
Christian McCaffrey is averaging just 3.8 yards per rush attempt in the regular season and playoffs and hasn't broken many big runs. McCaffrey's longest rush has been below 11.5 yards in nine of his last 15 games. That includes Week 18 against the Seahawks when his best carry went for a meager five yards. Seattle has the league's top-rated run defense and has held foes to an explosive run rate of just 6.7% — easily the lowest number in the NFL. In addition, the Seahawks are 7-point faves which indicates a passing game script for the Niners and fewer carries for C-Mac.
Charbonnet saw his touches surge down the stretch. He carried the rock 17 times for 74 yards against San Francisco in the season finale and logged 18 carries for 110 yards against Carolina the week before. It's worth noting that Charbonnet has faced 8+ defenders in the box on 35.3% of his runs — the third-highest number in the NFL. However, San Fran's defense has used a stack box a league-low 15.6% of the time. The Niners are 31st in the league in defensive rush success rate and have struggled to make tackles in the second level due to a cluster of injuries at linebacker.
McCaffrey logged 924 receiving yards in the regular season before adding another 66 yards in the Wild Card round. He was routinely cranking out games of 50+ receiving yards before Pro Bowl TE George Kittle got healthy and absorbed some of his underneath targets. Kittle tore his Achilles tendon last week which should lead to heavy usage for C-Mac in a contest where the 49ers have an implied passing game script as 7-point dogs. The Seahawks have an elite defense but are vulnerable against pass-catching backs, ranking 27th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to the position.
Both matchups during the regular season failed to top 30 combined points, including just two weeks ago when the Seahawks went into San Francisco and won 13-3. This is a very tough spot for the 49ers offense who are down another playmaker in George Kittle against this Seahawks defense that's held five of their last six opponents to 16 points or less.
Darnold completed 20 of 26 passes in a Week 18 win over San Francisco, in which Seattle went run heavy. The 49ers showed they could stiffen on the ground in the second half of the Wild Card win at Philadelphia and will sell out to stop Seattle’s rush attack Saturday. That leaves Darnold dropping back more. He’s completed 20 or more passes in four of his last five outings and faces a passive 49ers defense that doesn’t bring pressure and allows the fifth highest completion rate. Darnold’s projections range from 19.8 to a ceiling of 22 completions Saturday night.
Since Week 12, Zach Charbonnet has taken over Seattle’s red-zone work, logging 23 carries to Kenneth Walker’s nine and converting six of those chances into touchdowns while Walker has yet to score. Inside the five-yard line, the usage heavily favors Charbonnet by an 8–1 margin. Over the last two games, including Week 18 vs. San Francisco, Charbonnet has 35 carries for 184 yards and three TDs, plus added receiving work. Walker has similar overall volume but almost no red-zone usage. Charbonnet is clearly the primary finisher, making +100 a strong price.
JSN had 6 catches on 8 targets at San Francisco in Week 18 – a game in which the Seahawks ran on over 58% of their offensive snaps. This is a team that usually hands off at below a 50% rate. Running the ball won’t be as easy this time around and Sam Darnold will look to his top target when the going gets tough. He recorded 7 of more grabs in four straight before Week 18 and has gone Over this total of 6.5 receptions in 12 of his 17 games. He’s the second best WR vs. zone and faces a lot of that at home on Saturday.
San Fran is in tough without tight end George Kittle (Achilles), with the Niners ranking 26th in rush offensive DVOA across the six games he missed during the regular season. Of course, San Francisco also just lost to Seattle 13-3 in Week 18, and the Seahawks send out the best defense in the NFL. In addition to being rested and pacing the league in EPA per play and defensive DVOA, the Seahawks also allow the lowest EPA and fewest yards per rush. I like the Seattle defense slowing down the San Fran offense again while putting enough points on the board to cover the number at Lumen Field on Saturday.
These NFC West rivals clashed in a battle for the top seed in Week 18, with the Seahawks winning a 13-3 grinder.
The Niners managed only nine first downs and 173 total yards on offense while Seattle dominated possession for almost 38 minutes, anchored in a rushing attack going for 180 yards.
The venue swings to the Pacific Northwest for the Divisional Round. The 49ers are also missing star TE George Kittle, who suffered an Achilles injury in the Wild Card Round.
If you think we’ll see more of the same from these divisional rivals, grab the Under 46.5 now. The next key stop will be 44 points, and books will move fast if one-sided money shows on the Under.
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 59.9% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Zach Charbonnet has compiled a massive 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among running backs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The 49ers pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.8%) vs. running backs this year (86.8%).. This year, the stout 49ers run defense has allowed a meager 0.72 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 59.9% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a huge -7-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 59.9% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's game, Jauan Jennings is expected by the projection model to slot into the 85th percentile among wide receivers with 7.2 targets.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.. This week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected by the projection model to place in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 11.2 targets.
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