Loveland led the team in targets last week, tied the team in red zone targets across the season, and has averaged better than a touchdown every two games since Week Nine.
Stafford has thrown just nine picks in the regular season and playoffs but eight of those have come on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears defense is filled with ballhawks who helped them lead the NFL with 23 interceptions. The weather will also make it tough for Stafford who is used to playing indoors and will be throwing into heavy wind with gusts approaching 30 mph. He also has a sprained index finger on his throwing hand which could lead to issues gripping the football in 20-degree temps.
Colston Loveland had sky-high expectations after Chicago selected him with the 10th pick in the 2025 draft. The rookie tight end took a couple of months to earn the trust of his coaches but has become Caleb Williams' favorite target down the stretch. Loveland has racked up 6+ receptions and more than 90 receiving yards in three-straight games, reeling in eight of 15 targets for 137 yards in last week's win against Green Bay. With wideouts Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore hindered by lower-body injuries, Caleb Williams will rely on his security blanket TE on a cold and windy night at Soldier Field.
Adams returned from injury in the win over Carolina, drawing 13 targets for five catches and 72 yards in the Wild Card Round. That came against a zone-heavy scheme, but he’ll face a Chicago secondary that relies on man coverage. Adams rates among the best WRs versus man-to-man and has been L.A.’s top downfield threat, averaging 24 air yards per reception. The Bears limit yards after the catch but have been burned over the top, bleeding the third most air yards and second most explosive pass plays. Adams’ projections sit north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 67 yards.
This is a big fat fade of both defenses. Los Angeles is allowing an average of 30 points over their last five games, while Chicago ranks 29th in yards allowed per play on the season. The Rams average a league-high 30.7 points per game and have the firepower to embarrass a Bears pass defense which is one of the NFL's worst.
After leading all pass-catchers in yards last week, I didn’t expect Colston Loveland to be priced north of +170 in the highest-total game of the Divisional Round. Loveland did everything but score in the Wild Card, piling up 15 targets and 137 yards. He may draw more attention this week, but this offense has enough weapons that the Rams can’t afford to sell out to stop him. This same defense just allowed over 200 yards to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker and has surrendered 149 points over its last five games, including matchups against Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, and Kirk Cousins. Loveland is in full beast mode with three straight games of 90-plus yards, and there’s no reason that run ends on Sunday.
What do we know about the Bears? They fall behind, allowing 12.5 1H points against and that’s been really ugly in recent outings. What do we know about the Rams? McVay will script one hell of an opening drive. Los Angeles the third best 1H offense in the NFL – 15.2 points per 1H. This game has the potential for a shootout given the tall total and it starts early and often. Rams 12-7 O/U against their 1H TT this season.
Adams returned from injury in the Wild Card. He drew 13 targets but had just 5 receptions, still picking up 72 yards. That was against a zone-heavy scheme. He’s going to face more one-on-one man coverage in Chicago and while Puka Nacua is the best WR vs. man, DaVante’s not too far behind him, according to PFF. Puka is the ultimate YAC receiver while Adams is more of the air yards weapon. Chicago a strong tackling team that limits those yards after catch, but third most air yards allowed. Projections for Adams all north of 60 yards.
Chicago’s explosive passing attack can expose this L.A. secondary, that’s struggled in the home stretch and just made Bryce Young look like Steve Young in the Wild Card Round (for the second time this season).
And there’s the matter of the Rams traveling for a second straight week and coming into a cold climate, with extended forecasts calling for bitter temperatures (feels like -7) and potential 20-plus mph winds at Soldier Field.
The Bears are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games. Their offense has been churning out yards on the ground while their defense does a great job forcing turnovers. They'll have a significant home-field advantage in this game with Soldier Field rocking on a freezing and windy night, and the Rams making two cross-country flights over the week. Rams superstar QB Matthew Stafford has struggled in cold-weather games, and eight of his nine picks this year (reg season and playoffs) have come on the road. He's also banged up and will be playing with a sprained index finger on his throwing hand.
The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the anemic Bears defense has been torched for a monstrous 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the highest rate in the NFL.. This year, the porous Bears defense has yielded a staggering 0.28 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the largest rate in the league.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) usually mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.2 per game) this year.
The Rams are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.2 per game) this year.. Chicago's defense profiles as the best in football this year when it comes to causing interceptions, compiling 1.14 per game.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) usually mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.2 per game) this year.
The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the feeble Bears defense has surrendered a massive 53.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the most in football.. This year, the deficient Bears pass defense has conceded a colossal 81.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the largest rate in the NFL.. The Bears linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Kyren Williams to total 2.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs.. The Bears linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
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