If Joe Burrow is on the field in Week 17, you know he’s chucking it. The Bengals QB has nothing to play for but “fun” and faces a Cardinals defense among the worst at defending the pass. The Cardinals have allowed eight passing touchdowns the past three games and the secondary is down starters. Since returning to action in late November, Burrow has passed for 10 TDs in four game, including two four-TD efforts. Arizona doesn’t bring much in terms of pressure, so Burrow will have time to pick apart this busted zone-scheme for scoring strikes.
Trey McBride has scored 10 times this season and is by far the most dangerous player on the Cards’ roster. The Bengals are giving up an average of one touchdown per game to tight ends, and McBride has 31 red zone targets this season, only six fewer than the entire Cardinals’ WR corps combined.
Jacoby Brissett had been on fire until finishing last week's game against Atlanta with just 203 yards on 31 pass attempts. Before last week, Brissett had eclipsed his passing yards total in his first nine starts while racking up 40+ pass attempts in his previous six games. Expect a bounce-back performance on Sunday against Cincinnati who is dead-last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate. The Bengals are also 7-point favorites so we could see a negative game script from Arizona who has been passing at an extremely high rate even in neutral game situations.
With extra scrutiny around his mood and future in Cincinnati, Burrow had a field day last weekend against the Miami Dolphins. He racked up 309 passing yards that afternoon with four TDs, and a repeat performance is on the cards on Sunday given Arizona’s defensive flaws.
The Bengals have scored 32+ points in three of their past four contests, and I’ll gladly lay the points here, with the slumping Cards just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games despite some gritty efforts from Jacoby Brissett. There are also 2026 NFL Draft considerations here for the visitors, who enter with a 3-12 record and could slide further towards the No.1 pick.
Cincinnati’s offense showed signs of life last week, going a perfect 6-for-6 in the red zone against Miami. With Noah Fant inactive, Mike Gesicki stepped into a larger role, finishing with 35 yards on four targets and a touchdown. He was also one of just two Bengals pass-catchers to see a red-zone target in that game. The matchup sets up well again. Only Dallas has allowed more points per game than Arizona since Week 14, and Gesicki remains one of the few Bengals TD prices that’s still reasonable in the market. Cincinnati’s implied team total sits around 31.5 points, which suggests another high-scoring afternoon for Joe Burrow and this offense. In a game where points are expected to come in bunches, Gesicki’s role near the goal line makes him a worthwhile look at plus money.
You’re going to give me a +120 ATTD return on the best TE in the league against the worst defense when it comes to defending tight ends? I’ll bite. Cincy has allowed 15 scores to the position. McBride has nine TDs in his last 10 games. This game has the highest total on the Week 17 board, so expect plenty of passing (from the two highest passing rates in the league) and points.
Not only have the Cardinals dropped seven straight, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in six of those games. It’s been a bit of a different story for the Bengals, too. Cincy has covered the number in four of the past five, and the Bengals are 2-2 outright since star quarterback Joe Burrow returned. Arizona has also allowed an average of 34.7 points per game during the losing streak while surrendering the fourth-highest EPA per play, so I’m expecting another big game from Burrow on Sunday. Additionally, the Bengals have also shown more bite on defense since Burrow’s returned, with Cincy allowing the 11th-lowest EPA per play compared to the third-highest mark through the four games prior.
There will be Costco-sized scoring in this non-consequential non-conference contest.
We have two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly and two defenses that are already planning their flights to Cancun in two weeks. The Cardinals and Bengals rank No. 1 and No. 2 in passing play percentage and also rank 31st and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback.
Cincinnati is surging with Joe Burrow back and having “fun” playing football, passing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a squash of the Dolphins in Week 16.
These pass defenses sit near the bottom of most metrics, including allowing a surplus of explosive plays. Arizona enters Week 17 with injuries at all three levels of the defense.
This total opened at 51.5 and that number is still available on Sunday night, but things are moving quick. Some books are already up to 53 points. FYI: Extended forecast for Paycor Stadium looks warm with some moderate winds.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.7% red zone pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. As it relates to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a striking 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 17.9.
The Cardinals are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.. The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Right now, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league in the red zone (64.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.. The projections expect the Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap.. With an exceptional 32.0% Red Zone Target Share (99th percentile) this year, Trey McBride places among the tight ends with the highest volume near the goal line in football.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.7% red zone pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a staggering 36.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Mike Gesicki rates in the 76th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 24.8 figure this year.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and increased run volume.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.. Trey McBride's 75.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a substantial decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 79.2% rate.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. In this week's contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the projection model to place in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.9 targets.. Mike Gesicki rates in the 76th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 24.8 figure this year.. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 39.2 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 39.2 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. In this week's contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the projection model to place in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.9 targets.. Mike Gesicki has totaled a staggering 36.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a staggering 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst in the NFL.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is projected by the model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 5.5 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a striking 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 17.9.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and increased run volume.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.. Trey McBride has accumulated many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (66.0) this season than he did last season (73.0).. Trey McBride's 75.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a substantial decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 79.2% rate.. Trey McBride's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a meaningful diminishment in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 4.6% mark.
Arizona Trends
Cincinnati Trends