Steelers @ Lions Picks & Props

The Steelers are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. After averaging 7.0 air yards per game last season, Darnell Washington has gotten better this season, currently sitting at 15.0 per game.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. With a high 42.9% Red Zone Target Rate (100th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football. After accumulating 68.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen a big uptick this season, currently pacing 87.0 per game.

The Steelers are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. DK Metcalf places in the 91st percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a massive 64.4 figure this year.

The Steelers are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Kenneth Gainwell has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.7% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. Jahmyr Gibbs's 26.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 18.2. Jahmyr Gibbs's 86.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a remarkable boost in his receiving prowess over last season's 82.4% mark.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 36.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. Jared Goff is more comfortable in the pocket and has accounted for a mere 1.5% of his team's run game usage near the goal line this year, ranking him in the 22nd percentile among QBs.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. The Steelers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.2%) vs. TEs this year (82.2%). The Steelers defense has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving TDs in football to TEs: 0.71 per game this year.

The Steelers are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 40.6.