One of the featured games of Week 16 will be when the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions with massive playoff implications on the line.
There are several matchup advantages for both teams that we can exploit to find great value in a few player props.
Here are my top Steelers vs. Lions player props and NFL picks for Sunday, December 21.
Steelers vs Lions props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Aaron Rodgers |
Under 0.5 rushing yards | -136 |
 Jahmyr Gibbs |
Longest rush Over 17.5 yards | -108 |
| David Montgomery |
Under 1.5 receptions | -130 |
Prop bet #1: Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 rushing yards
I love it when the books offer these props for quarterbacks that are unlikely to run, and this is a perfect spot to take one.
Aaron Rodgers was once known as a great scrambler and could take off when needed, but he is now 42 years old and has dealt with several injuries over recent years.
The Detroit Lions are one of the best defenses in the NFL at defending quarterback scrambles, ranking ninth. Even great running quarterbacks have struggled to run on them, as the most they have given up all season is 35 yards to Lamar Jackson.
Rodgers has finished with zero rushing yards in six of his last seven starts.
Prop bet #2 Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards
There may not be a more dangerous home run threat right now in any NFL backfield than Jahmyr Gibbs. He is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has 10 games this season with at least one carry going for double-digit yardage. That includes five games with one carry going for at least 24 yards.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have missed a tackle on 14.0% of opportunities, which is the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and have allowed 881 yards off missed tackles, which is the fourth-most. Gibbs has forced 67 missed tackles this season, which is the seventh-most in the NFL.
Gibbs has averaged a league-high 2.4 rushing yards before contact per carry. The Steelers have allowed over a yard before contact per carry in four of their last six games. Gibbs is going to be able to find some open space and may only need to break one tackle to hit this prop.
Prop bet #3: David Montgomery Under 1.5 receptions
The same reason I love the previous Gibbs prop is why I am taking this David Montgomery prop. This is an excellent matchup for Gibbs, and it will likely be a heavy-usage game for him compared to Monty. But I like his receptions Under more than anything related to the ground game.
Because the Steelers have allowed some big runs this year, I don’t want to take Montgomery to stay Under his rushing yardage in case he breaks a big one.
He could also see some extra carries compared to usual if the ground game is working so well for Gibbs, also. But that should mean we see very little of Montgomery in the passing game.
Montgomery has one or fewer catches in eight games this season and in each of the previous two games. It is also likely that the Lions will be playing with the lead for much of this game, and it should remove the need for Montgomery to be in passing situations when he is on the field.
Bet on the NFL at FanDuel!
Make your NFL bets at FanDuel, America's No. 1 sportsbook! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you could win $250 in bonus bets if your wager is a winner!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
