Bills WR Khalil Shakir is among the best receivers at picking up yards after the catch and faces a Bengals pass defense that has allowed the most total YAC on the season. With snow and wind picking up in Orchard Park, Buffalo could opt for shorter passes to Shakir who will add extra gains on the ground. Projections for Shakir sit north of his receiving yard prop with most models above 50 yards. The Bills receiving corps is running thin so Shakir should draw his share of targets.
Dalton Kincaid is tied for the most first touchdowns for the Bills this season and faces a Bengals team who have allowed 13 touchdowns from tight ends this season.
Through the first six games of the season, Brown rushed for just 202 yards on a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry. But in the last six games he has rushed for 502 yards on 5.8 yards per attempt. In Week 14, Brown and the Bengals face a Buffalo squad that has one glaring flaw; an inability to stop the run. The Bills are 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA. They surrender 141.3 rushing yards per game and with Cincinnati getting back QB Joe Burrow last week, they'll need to focus on containing the pass. Brown has rushed for more than 70 yards in five of his last six games and this number looks way too low here.
The Bengals are one of the worst pass defenses in the land and have allowed the second most passing touchdowns to opponents this season. Cincinnati is giving up 2.2 TDs through the air per game with a red-zone defense allowing foes to cross the goal line at a near 65% rate. Allen’s lack of passing touchdowns the past two games coincides with a laundry list of ailments for the receiving corps. That includes his favorite TD target, tight end Dalton Kincaid (questionable for Sunday). This pass-catching group is getting healthier in Week 14, hopefully in time for a high-scoring showdown with Cincy. Player projections for Allen range from 1.8 to 2.1 passing touchdowns on Sunday.
Samaje Perine is a sneaky +310 TD play this week against a Bills defense I still don’t trust against the run. Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards than Buffalo, and their 15 rushing TDs allowed to running backs are the most in the league. Perine returned last week and immediately carved into Chase Brown’s workload, even getting the only RB carry inside the 5. He finished with 14 carries—just one fewer than Brown—and logged a 40% snap share. Cincinnati may want to ease Brown’s workload after weeks of heavy usage, and Perine looks positioned to handle high-value touches near the goal line in a Joe Burrow offense with a 52.5-point total.
The Bengals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Right now, the most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (65.2% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals.. When talking about air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among running backs this year, totaling a remarkable 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Chase Brown has been in the 95th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 22.3 mark this year.
With an extraordinary 22.7% Red Zone Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.. The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.. The Bengals linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
James Cook has accumulated a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.. James Cook's 96.4% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a remarkable boost in his receiving talent over last year's 84.6% figure.. This year, the feeble Bengals pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 86.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 6th-biggest rate in football.. This year, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a monstrous 0.50 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the highest rate in the league.
The Bills are a 6-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 126.8 offensive plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projections to have the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 27.7.
The Bills are a 6-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 126.8 offensive plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projections to have the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 27.7.
The Bills are a 6-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 126.8 offensive plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projections to have the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 27.7.
The leading projections forecast the Bengals to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.. The Bengals O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Joe Burrow has passed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (127.0) this year than he did last year (297.0).. Joe Burrow's 59.5% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys an impressive decline in his throwing accuracy over last year's 71.6% figure.
The Bengals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.6 targets.. Chase Brown has been an integral part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 14.7% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.. When talking about air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among running backs this year, totaling a remarkable 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
Khalil Shakir has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.. The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.. The Bengals linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
With an elite 45.8% Route% (80th percentile) this year, James Cook places among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in the league.. James Cook has accumulated a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.. James Cook's 96.4% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a remarkable boost in his receiving talent over last year's 84.6% figure.. This year, the deficient Bengals defense has yielded a staggering 45.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-worst in football.
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