Kamara is out another week for the Saints which means Tayson Hill should draw carries. He ran only once against Miami last week but head coach Kellen Moore told the media he has to get Hill more involved in Week 14. His rushing projections sit around 20 yards with a ceiling of 25. He rushed for gains of 17, 20 and 30 the three games prior to last Sunday.
There’s a sizable gap in Mayfield’s numbers at Raymond James Stadium and the highway, with the veteran averaging 249 yards per game and 7.6 yards per target at home compared to respective 193.6 and 6.0 marks on the road. This is also the lowest passing yards total for Mayfield since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, and there’s nothing scary about the New Orleans pass defense. The Saints have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest EPA per dropback while ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA, after all.
The Saints have a clear problem: they can’t run the ball. Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and Devin Neal didn’t exactly take control of the backfield, managing just 47 yards on 14 carries against Miami. The real takeaway from that game was the emergence of Devaughn Vele, who’s starting to break out in his second season and with his second team. Vele has 11 catches on 15 targets over the last two weeks and found the end zone on one of his two red-zone looks. Now he gets a Tampa defense that is one of only eight teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, meaning the Saints will likely have to lean on the pass again — even if Kamara returns. Vele is functioning as a true WR2 with WR1 upside and could easily lead this game in receiving yards if New Orleans is forced into a pass-heavy script. I’d play his number down to +270.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers have intercepted 0.94 balls per game this year, grading out as the 5th-best defense in football by this metric.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. Chris Olave's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 73.7% to 65.6%.. Chris Olave's 6.6 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a meaningful reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 10.0 mark.. Chris Olave's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.50 figure last year.. This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has conceded a measly 62.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.. This year, the poor New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed a staggering 88.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 4th-highest rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The predictive model expects Cade Otton to earn 4.7 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.. This year, the porous Saints defense has given up the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a staggering 7.93 yards.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.
The Saints are an enormous 8-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are projected by the model to run 65.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Saints have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.. The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.. This year, the porous Buccaneers defense has been torched for a colossal 48.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the most in the league.
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 4th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.3% run rate.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are projected by the model to run 65.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Saints have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.. The Buccaneers linebackers profile as the 9th-worst LB corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
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