The Cowboys throw the ball at the seventh highest rate and Prescott has attempted the third most passes per game among qualified QBs (37 per game). This pairing with the Lions’ soft secondary will see those numbers rise. With a total this high and two defenses known for allowing home run plays, Thursday Night Football could quickly turn into a shootout – prompting more passing plays from Prescott and the Cowboys. His Week 14 projections bounce between 36 and 37 pass attempts but with Dallas expected to play from behind (as road underdogs), I believe the ceiling is closer to 40 passes thrown from No. 4 on TNF.
Gibbs has rushed for 1019 yards this year while adding another 397 yards through the air. The two-time Pro Bowler had a a career-high 11 receptions for 45 yards in Week 12 and racked up 107 receiving yards the week before that. He faces a Dallas defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against running backs while allowing 44.7 receiving yards per game to the position - the third-highest number in the NFL. The Cowboys lead the league in pressure rate so expect Jared Goff to rely on shorter throws and outlet options like Gibbs. With TE Sam Laporta on the IR and No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St.Brown injuring his ankle last week, there will be plenty of targets to go around.
If you exclude Week 3 when CeeDee Lamb was injured early in the first quarter, he has logged 85+ yards in five of eight games this year. In one of the games where he went below that number, Dallas had a positive game script and in another he faced an elite Denver defense and still had 74 yards. With the Cowboys 3-point dogs on TNF they'll likely have a negative or neutral game script and Detroit's pass defense has struggled. The Lions rank 26th in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers and have allowed a league-high 23 pass completions off 20+ air yards. Expect Lamb to torch a depleted secondary that is missing safety Kerby Joseph and CB Terrion Arnold.
Dak Prescott has thrown for 320+ yards in back-to-back games. He leads the league with 271.8 passing yards per game which is especially impressive when you consider that No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb missed four games. Prescott has his full arsenal of weapons on TNF as the Cowboys face a Detroit secondary that's been picked apart by Jordan Love and Jameis Winston the last two weeks. Prescott third in the NFL in yards per dropback against man coverage and the Lions play man at the second-highest coverage in the league. Detroit has really missed All Pro safety Kerby Joseph who is dealing with a knee injury and they placed corner Terrion Arnold on the IR this week.
Williams was Goff’s go-to when St. Brown went down on Thanksgiving, drawing 10 targets for seven catches. He had 144 yards, including a 44 -yard dinger. Dan Campbell gushed about how good Williams was looking this week and specifically talked about his yards after the catch. He enters Week 14 ranked 4th among all WRs in YAC per reception and takes on a Dallas team that allows the 4th most YAC. Williams has topped this longest reception bar in four of his last five, and has 6 receptions of 30+ and five of 40+ on the year
Detroit’s pass protection is in pieces with a short week to get right before playing on Thursday. Quarterback Jared Goff has been feeling “Pacino vs. De Niro” levels of heat, suffering eight sacks and constant hounding over the past three games. The Cowboys enter Week 14 with one the premier pass rushes in the NFL, sitting No. 1 in pressure rate per dropback, QB hits and QB hurries. Dallas has collected eight sacks during its current three-game winning streak, including three on Patrick Mahomes last Thursday, and has really found its footing on that side of the football since a fateful Week 10 bye week. Not only are the Cowboys causing chaos for opposing passers, but the run stop has benefitted from the additions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson as well as the return of LB DeMarvion Overshown. Dallas sits 10th in EPA allowed per carry and seventh in opponent success rate per run since Week 11.
These teams rank second and third in scoring, and both defenses have glaring weaknesses that should set up plenty of sustained drives and big-play opportunities. Detroit can exploit Dallas’ issues against the run and on third downs, while the Cowboys’ passing attack should thrive against a Lions defense that’s getting carved up. With these defenses ranking 27th and 30th in red-zone touchdown percentage, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. The leading projections forecast Jahmyr Gibbs to be much less involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line in this contest (10.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.1% in games he has played).. Jahmyr Gibbs's 25.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 18.2.
The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Dallas Cowboys.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 133.0 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average).
The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Dallas Cowboys.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 133.0 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average).
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 66.8 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. In this week's game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.1 targets.. This year, the anemic Cowboys pass defense has yielded a massive 70.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 2nd-worst rate in the league.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. In this game, Jameson Williams is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile among wideouts with 9.8 targets.. While Jameson Williams has garnered 18.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Detroit's pass game in this week's game at 28.0%.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football versus the Cowboys defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%).
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 66.8 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football.. With a terrific 8.05 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places among the most effective QBs in the NFL.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. While Ross Dwelley has garnered 1.2% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Detroit's pass game in this week's contest at 8.0%.. This year, the shaky Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded a monstrous 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-largest rate in football.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 66.8 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. In this week's game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.1 targets.. This year, the weak Dallas Cowboys defense has been gouged for a massive 168.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
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