Baltimore @ Kansas City Picks & Props

Lamar Jackson's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 67.6% to 72.4%. With an exceptional ratio of 2.25 per game (100th percentile), Lamar Jackson has been among the leading TD throwers in the league this year.

Mark Andrews has put up a colossal 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among tight ends. Mark Andrews ranks in the 88th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 35.2 mark since the start of last season. With a remarkable ratio of 0.50 per game through the air (100th percentile), Mark Andrews stands as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to TEs this year. Since the start of last season, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has allowed a massive 80.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL.

While Zay Flowers has garnered 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Baltimore's passing attack near the goal line in this contest at 18.5%. Zay Flowers has put up a staggering 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wideouts. Zay Flowers's 62.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 87th percentile for wide receivers. Zay Flowers's 70.4% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a noteworthy progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 65.7% figure. Zay Flowers ranks in the 76th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a remarkable 0.25 per game.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.9% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.9% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. Marquise Brown's 55.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 79th percentile for wide receivers.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.9% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. The projections expect Isiah Pacheco to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (5.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

The projections expect Derrick Henry to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the end zone in this week's contest (5.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played). Derrick Henry has earned a whopping 0.3% of his team's air yards this year: 78th percentile among RBs.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.9% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to throw 39.8 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.9% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in football. Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.